MS Special-McDaniel Internal/A2P: McDaniel +8 in jungle primary

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

He’s definitely not the "best fit" for the state or whatever, but he doesn’t have to be in order to win a low turnout runoff where Republicans stay home and Democrats/black voters are energized in a state where Dems already have a high floor. Meanwhile, there’s no indication whatsoever that WV is even semi-competitive at this point.

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

He’s definitely not the "best fit" for the state or whatever, but he doesn’t have to be in order to win a low turnout runoff where Republicans stay home and Democrats/black voters are energized in a state where Dems already have a high floor. Meanwhile, there’s no indication whatsoever that WV is even semi-competitive at this point.

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

Last public poll had Manchin up 12.

And only at 45%, and it was like memerson.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

No recent poll has shown him within striking distance, and I could definitely see this staying D even if Republicans massively outperform expectations (it’s even less likely to flip than MT at this point, tbh). Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate, Manchin already won against a weak opponent in a R wave year, WV elected a Democratic governor while Trump was carrying the state by 42 points, the midterm electorate in a state like WV is generally more Democratic-leaning, etc. etc.

Morrisey is not Raese tier. He is not great, but at least he holds statewide elected office and is not a perennial loser. That was 2010, WV has gotten A LOT redder since then, and WV is immune to this blue wave. The main reason Ojeda and Manchin are competetive is candidate quality, not some blue wave thing. This race is also a lot more nationalized than the Perdue and Justice wins, and Trump is going to continue to be there to drag Manchin down.