MT-Axis Research: Tie
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Author Topic: MT-Axis Research: Tie  (Read 1363 times)
reagente
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« on: September 20, 2018, 03:34:49 PM »
« edited: September 20, 2018, 03:40:37 PM by reagente »

Tester (D, inc.) - 44%
Rosendale (R) - 44%
Breckenridge (L) - 4%

MOE: 4.5%

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/montana-senate-race-tied-at-44-percent-in-fresh-republican-poll

Conducted on behalf of NRSC.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2018, 03:37:14 PM »

It'll be wild if Tester loses while McCaskill manages to hang on.
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2018, 03:39:42 PM »

Still Lean D. This looks like a Republican internal.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2018, 03:41:09 PM »

Tester was never going to win in a landslide (lmao), but this definitely doesnít feel accurate. Iíd say heís up about 3 points right now. A deceptively close race, but winning those final few percent that Rosendale needs is going to be very difficult for him unless he improves his campaign or the national environment improves for Republicans.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2018, 03:42:44 PM »

tossup, but Tester is part of the VA, I see Nelson losing rather than Tester, who is a bipartisan senator.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2018, 03:43:03 PM »

Toss-Up.
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Overturn Dobbs
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2018, 04:15:34 PM »

Still Lean D. This looks like a Republican internal.

Maybe, but if the Dems had internals that looked much different than this, they'd release them. It's probably something like 47-45 now, but the fundamentals of the state are very good for Rosendale which is why he is slightly favored.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2018, 04:50:14 PM »

Doesn't look like a blue wave to me...

Democrats will be lucky if they keep it the way it currently is in the senate.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2018, 04:54:00 PM »

Doesn't look like a blue wave to me...

Democrats will be lucky if they keep it the way it currently is in the senate.

It will be a blue wave, Beto is coming on strong and Bredesen is winning
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2018, 05:33:16 PM »

If this is an internal, then it's not a bad poll for Tester. It means he's probably ahead by a few points, which I'm guessing has been the case for a while. Doesn't seem like much has changed or will change in this race.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2018, 05:48:51 PM »

Still Lean D. This looks like a Republican internal.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2018, 05:50:10 PM »

Still Lean D. This looks like a Republican internal.

Maybe, but if the Dems had internals that looked much different than this, they'd release them. It's probably something like 47-45 now, but the fundamentals of the state are very good for Rosendale which is why he is slightly favored.

Sure, if you ignore Missoula, Bozeman, college students, environmental activists, Native Americans, veterans, farmers and moderate/liberal women, then yeah, theyíre pretty good. Rosendale could still make this a Tossup (right now Iíd rate it Tilt/Lean D), but thereís no way in hell heís favored in this race.
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Roblox
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2018, 06:05:35 PM »

I don't think the fundamentals of this race have changed all year. Basically, Tester has been ahead by a few points (i'd guess around 3 points or so as of now), and I suspect it'll remain that way until election day.
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GM Team Member WB #NoToJo
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2018, 06:29:25 PM »

Doubt, edge of lean and likely still for me, rosendale is weak af
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2018, 06:43:24 PM »

Doesn't look like a blue wave to me...

Democrats will be lucky if they keep it the way it currently is in the senate.

We'll have a wave in the House and with Governorships. Hopefully, we can get a splash at the very  least in the Senate. It's really hard to say what will happen with those races.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2018, 07:26:43 PM »



I think the Kavanaugh allegations have helped Heidi and McCaskill's chances at the expense of Tester and Nelson. Donnelly is leading in AARP poll.

But, we can have new senators in a lot of races😁
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NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2018, 07:55:06 PM »

LOL, 538 says this pollster has a 6-point bias toward Republicans. Tester being up 6 seems about right.
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АndriуValeriovych
andjey
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« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2018, 06:57:19 AM »

Still Lean D. This looks like a Republican internal.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2018, 07:10:47 AM »

Some of these races can go against the norm. AG Foxx is possibly the next Gov in 2020. Montana, FL or ND can go GOP. Tester isn't safe
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2018, 12:29:04 PM »

LOL, 538 says this pollster has a 6-point bias toward Republicans. Tester being up 6 seems about right.

If you think a poll is unreliable, you donít "unskew" it, you throw it in the trash. CBS/YouGov had Tester up 2, Remington had him up 3, so itís not as if this deviates too much from the consensus. Itís also worth remembering that these races donít happen in a vacuum. While ND and MT are very different states, the urban-rural divide isnít just going to impact ND, so if Heitkamp is trailing by mid-single digits right now, youíre not going to see Tester win by more than, say, 5, either.

Iíd love to see a reliable poll of MT-AL though, since the House race is somewhat competitive as well.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2018, 12:36:36 PM »

Nazi research more like.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2018, 12:55:27 PM »


Wow, so clever.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2018, 05:19:48 PM »

Kind of dumb for the NRSC to release this, but okay. I guess it's just to counter the "Titanium Tester" narrative? Becuase this poll actually makes me feel better about his chances than I did before I saw it.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2018, 05:33:06 PM »

Kind of dumb for the NRSC to release this, but okay. I guess it's just to counter the "Titanium Tester" narrative? Becuase this poll actually makes me feel better about his chances than I did before I saw it.

Most people didnít expect this race to be close at all in a D wave year with Rosendale as the Republican candidate. This isnít the only poll showing a close race, CBS/YouGov had Tester up by 2, and Iím pretty sure theyíre not a R pollster. Tester is still favored obviously, but I donít see why the NRSC is "dumb" for releasing this?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2018, 05:39:22 PM »

Kind of dumb for the NRSC to release this, but okay. I guess it's just to counter the "Titanium Tester" narrative? Becuase this poll actually makes me feel better about his chances than I did before I saw it.

Most people didnít expect this race to be close at all in a D wave year with Rosendale as the Republican candidate. This isnít the only poll showing a close race, CBS/YouGov had Tester up by 2, and Iím pretty sure theyíre not a R pollster. Tester is still favored obviously, but I donít see why the NRSC is "dumb" for releasing this?

So then yes, it was just to counter the narrative that Tester was heavily favored? Because if you viewed it as a toss up beforehand (as I did), this just gives you more reason to think Tester is legitimately up by at least a few points.
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