Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13 (user search)
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  Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13  (Read 11593 times)
Hnv1
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« on: September 29, 2018, 08:32:20 AM »

Which national parties have the strongest representation in the municipalities?
in most municipalities I would wager Likud and surprisingly Shas.

Likud as the rulling party and closest to a big tent party are represented all around. Shas had perpetual holders of the home office have the money, hence many running under their banner. Labour used to be like that but they're finished as a "national party'.

Who controls most municipalities? I have no idea, I don't think anyone keeps track of that. we also need to remember that you can have multiple parties in one municipality that are basically composed of members of the same national party (Haifa has like 3 Labour parties and 2 Likud parties)

Meanwhile in Haifa, the mayoral election is running at "full speed at neutral gear' mode
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Hnv1
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2018, 12:57:51 PM »

What would be the difference between Elkin and Lion, policy-wise?
Minor.
Mayor's have very little actual power, they usually appoint some friends to jobs in cityhall, arrange for building permits to their friends, approve some massive absolutely pointless landmark construction that people will remember them for, and fund some projects they like.
Most actual important planning for infrastructure and such happens at the national level anyhow, especially in Jerusalem where it is practically ran by the different government departments stationed there anyhow.

The city basically makes sure the trash is taken out, and business owners pay their taxes.

As Elkin has his eyes on national politics I think he'll do more PR stunts if he's elected.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2018, 01:59:52 AM »

Is Huldai running in Tel Aviv again?
Yes, running against a pale young version of him in Zamir, and radical TV pundit Assaf Harel from the left. I expect Huldai to win again, he's a great mayor. Shame he's too old to join the big league
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Hnv1
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2018, 02:47:52 AM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

The District Court disqualified a front runner in the Haifa election because of a technicality where Labour party supported her and another candidate (she was dumb enough not to double check, and I'm fairly certain it was an inside hit in the Labour party). I think the SC will overturn it because of the normative impact for elections, but yet another evidence for the repugnant stench of Labour
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Hnv1
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2018, 08:37:51 AM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

This is a stupid comment. Opposition to homosexuality exists all around the world and not only is it not centered in America, it's probably less prevalent in America than anywhere else in the world besides maybe Western Europe.
Opposition is universal, but LGBTQ rights as a focal of political discourse is very much American. The Haredi here never campaigned on it before, it's a strong mimic of the religious right campaign over there.
I would also point that the mere fact that Shas are running campaigns is a sort of Americanization of the political discourse for a party of their kind.

You can add that the stark Americanization of the political system (with Meretz and Liberman being the exceptions). That's an undeniable phenomena in politics here.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2018, 03:34:24 AM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

This is a stupid comment. Opposition to homosexuality exists all around the world and not only is it not centered in America, it's probably less prevalent in America than anywhere else in the world besides maybe Western Europe.
Opposition is universal, but LGBTQ rights as a focal of political discourse is very much American. The Haredi here never campaigned on it before, it's a strong mimic of the religious right campaign over there.
I would also point that the mere fact that Shas are running campaigns is a sort of Americanization of the political discourse for a party of their kind.

You can add that the stark Americanization of the political system (with Meretz and Liberman being the exceptions). That's an undeniable phenomena in politics here.

LGBT issues are not a focal point in Africa or Arab countries because opposition to them is overwhelming.

LGBT issues become focal points of national politics only if there is support for them.
That was hardly a major political issue anywhere in Europe (part for the weird Paris protests).
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Hnv1
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 02:01:56 AM »

Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav
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Hnv1
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 04:24:23 AM »

Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav

This is surprising, I thought Yahav is safe.

But the most surprising part is Berkovitz- I thought this would be between Leon and Elkin. Do you really believe Berkovitz has a chance? I mean, even if he makes it to the runoff, I could see the Leon and Elkin voters rallying against him and painting him as a leftist.
Leon is completely reliant on Haredi votes who are split with Deitsch. His ground game is dead.

I've spent 3 days in Jerusalem this week, as I move a lot in the city I take taxis quite often, they're a good bellwether. The number of them who are proper Likud and said they'll go for Berkovitz surprised me, it seems that there's a strong trend against Haredi policy even with core rightwing voters (I think the increased tourist nature of the city centre creates economic benefits for them now that are strong enough to sageguard them from their usual pro-haredi stance).

what will happen in the second round is a mystery...but for now I'll put a fiver on Elkin and Berkovitz making the run off
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Hnv1
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2018, 05:34:31 AM »

Voted at 10am and Yahav’s people were doing their monkey business. I threatened the official on the scene that I’ll be calling the police and went to the local committee to complain about election fraud.

It’s going to be tight
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Hnv1
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2018, 06:18:07 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 06:34:11 AM by Hnv1 »

19.6% turnout at 12:30, a 4% increase (thanks to the new sabbatical day?)

Edit: 28.4%, +9% from 2013
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Hnv1
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2018, 10:42:08 AM »

17:00 turnout at 47.8%, which is a staggering 12.3% increase from 2013
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Hnv1
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2018, 11:30:37 AM »

17:00 turnout at 47.8%, which is a staggering 12.3% increase from 2013
That number is inflated, it's the average of all municipalities without regard to the number of people in each municipality, and since turnout tends to be higher in smaller places, it's higher than it really is.

The real number is currently just below 40%.
Still higher than 2013 then. The final turnout then was around 50%.
Jerusalem will have low turnout as they don’t go out to vote in the eastern part but I suspect turnout in the western side will be quite high.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2018, 03:12:29 PM »

Up to 51.89% turnout now, which means that the final number for the previous two elections has already been beaten.
Still hardly impressive given that people got a day off.
Slightly impressive considering how power less local government is in Israel
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Hnv1
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2018, 03:20:15 PM »

Turnout is lower in Jerusalem than it was in 2013, I suspect it has mainly to do with Palestinian natural growth. But either way turnout in non Haredi neighborhoods was pathetic, as it stands both Berkovitch and Elkin are the losers.

Polls in Haifa are showing the incumbent Yahav was badly defeated. He kind of lost it today and blamed the presumed winner (and the first female mayor of a major city) of orchestrated cyber attacks.

I smell a coup coming in Tel Aviv. Shame, Zamir is a tosser.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2018, 03:50:20 PM »

Turnout is lower in Jerusalem than it was in 2013, I suspect it has mainly to do with Palestinian natural growth. But either way turnout in non Haredi neighborhoods was pathetic, as it stands both Berkovitch and Elkin are the losers.

That's very sad. If that was what happened in the 1st round, the 2nd will be a landslide for the candidate against Berkovitch, if the latter will even make it there at all.
Turnout in Rehavia, Naachlot, and the City Centre were really poor. Berkovitch failed with the students
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Hnv1
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2018, 02:27:12 AM »

Interesting night. Increased turnout made it more challenging to incumbents.

Haifa saw a landslide for Kalish-Rotem with over 50% of the vote, Meretz are in the council for the first time since 2008.

Tel Aviv saw Holdai winning again though not as comfortablly. Can't get the council results yets.

Jerusalem surprised me with how Elkin fared. from what I gather the split actually did well for the Haredi on the council who gain 1 more seat.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2018, 02:49:40 AM »

@parrotguy

I see your friend Eyal was elected to the Jerusalem city council. first gay councilor?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2018, 04:51:01 AM »

Did Aryeh King get elected in Jerusalem?
2 seats.
17 seats for the Haredi bloc, 5 for the general right (JH+Likud), 9 for the centre and the left (Berkovitch 6+2 Meretz+1 Havilio).
Leon couldn't get in which is amusing as he will need a special appointment by the Home Office if he becomes a mayor.

Meretz became the largest faction in Kfar Saba, Raanana, and surprisingly Rosh Hayen (a likud stronghold mostly).
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Hnv1
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2018, 05:37:48 AM »

@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.
The Home Office file is not up to date, the current margin is of 251 votes. I highly doubt the provisional votes are going to go 100% to Bloch so I guess the incumbent is going to win by even a finer margin.

Anyway she's a JH candidate so not exactly a battle between progress and backwardness
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Hnv1
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2018, 06:11:06 AM »

@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.
The Home Office file is not up to date, the current margin is of 251 votes. I highly doubt the provisional votes are going to go 100% to Bloch so I guess the incumbent is going to win by even a finer margin.

Anyway she's a JH candidate so not exactly a battle between progress and backwardness

Yeah, Beit Shemesh is a Haredi vs religions zionist fight. Still, with a minimal amount of Haredi soldiers, I'd expect most of the provinsial votes to go to her, no? And there gotta be more than 300 voting soldiers in such a big city.
I don't think there are that many soldiers in the city, I also think that at least some of them would prefer voting for the Shas candidate (the truck driver characters...). Even if there are 700 voting, turnout for soldiers is shambolic so she will literary have to carry above 90% of them to see them through. Add 50 prisoners who most likely will go with the Haredi guy and it's even harder. 

Neharaya saw the repugnant incumbent knocked out in a landslide to a labour candidate who had the most beautiful thing to say "I'm not a political person". Jesus wept.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2018, 02:13:25 AM »

Aliza Bloch, a religious-zionist woman from the Jewish Home, upset the incumbent haredi Mayor of Beit Shemesh by a margin of 500 votes. I doubt this means much, but at least the guy whose rhetoric was that of a Jewish Kadyrov was defeated.
Well that was surprising. Not that Beit Shemesh will change, but I really didn't see the provisional votes having such impact.

still looking for results according to ballot box and maybe then we could have some nice maps
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Hnv1
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2018, 02:42:53 AM »

Haifa city council (changes since 2013):
Kalish's faction (basically Labour) - 4 (+1(
Yahav's faction - 4 (-3 as he ran united with the 'Youth of Haifa' who got 3 last time around as he got 4).
Green Party - 4 (+2)
Atzioni's faction - 3 (+3 didn't run)
Likud - 3 (+2)
Hadash - 2
YB - 2 (-1)
Degel Hatorah - 2 (UTJ+Shas ran together and got 4 last time around)
Senior Citizens - 1 (same)
Meretz (+1, first time since 2000)
JH - 1 (unchanged)
Shas - 1
Agudat Israel - 1
Sarit Golan - 1 (new)
Tzvi Barbi - 1 (new)

good night for the progressive parties, with Kalish+Greens+Meretz getting a third of the council (Meretz already signed a coalition agreement). Atzioni+YB+Degel will join which gets the narrow majority of 16. I assume the smaller factions will join as well.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2018, 08:29:05 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2018, 12:50:46 PM by Hnv1 »

Jerusalem City Council final results:
Berkovitz - 7
Degel Hatorah - 6
Shas - 5
Agudat Israel - 3
Elkin's party - 2 (he will remain as an MK)
JH - 2
Far Right List - 2
Meretz - 1
Havilio - 1
Likud - 1 (lol)
Bnei Torah - 1

So basically the Haredi have 15\31. As Meretz won't sit with King and the far right, if Berkovitch wins he'll have to utilize at least one Haredi party.

I can't seem to find the Tel Aviv city council results yet (well verified), and the Home Office results site is out for the past 36 hours. ridicolous

Edit: Tel Aviv results:
Holdai’s faction - 7 (+2)
Zamir’s faction - 6 (+2)
Meretz- 4 (-2)
Harel’s faction/Hadash - 4 (+1)
Green-Secular - 2 (new party)
Senior citizens - 2 (0)
Shas - 2 (ran in a united religious party last time)
Yesh Attid- 1 (0)
Yaffa - 1 (0, new Arabic party)
JH - 1 (see Shas)
Likud - 1 (-1)
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Hnv1
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2018, 09:59:27 AM »

Does the mayor form a coalition? What happens if, say, Berkovitch becomes mayor but the religious right-wing majority will continue to oppose Berkovitch's plans?
Difficult question. The mayor does form a coalition though he’s not obliged to do so by law and they can’t vote him out. You can picture a scenario with a mayor and a council that opposes him and strikes down his budget and bills. It will be an odd situation legally. But we can write it off as an option. Being in the a municipal opposition is like the desert, most mayors enjoy the support of 80% of their council
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Hnv1
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2018, 08:52:22 AM »

Finally, a dot map:



Lion=blue
Berkovitch=yellow
Deitsch=green
Elkin=orange
Salman=purple
what's with the random Salman dots in East Jerusalem?

Givat Ram dorms have 80% for Meretz+Havilio+Berkovitz
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