Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13

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Jerusalem also has Yossi Havilio, a secular attorney who's basically the candidate of the tiny left plus the LGBTQ community in the city. He obviously can't win I'd probably vote for Berkovitch considering everything.

Meanwhile, the comparably small cities of Ma'alot and Nahariya in the north have contests between the longtime incumbent mayors Jackie Sabag (Nahariya) and Shlomo Buchbut (my city- Ma'alot). They're both part of the old wave of Mizrahi Jews who took a firm hold of the municipalities following the fall of the Ashkenazi domination. I doubt either will lose, though my Mayor looks more endangered to me, considering there's a Russian candidate running who came close last time, and the city's post-Soviet population is very large. Buhbut, by the way, is in office for 42 years, serving as head of the Council and then as Mayor when Ma'alot became a real city with municipal authorities. If he wins reelection, I believe he'll become the longest-serving Mayor ever in Israel.

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Jerusalem also has Yossi Havilio, a secular attorney who's basically the candidate of the tiny left plus the LGBTQ community in the city. He obviously can't win I'd probably vote for Berkovitch considering everything.

He already dropped out and endorsed Berkovitch a while ago.

Huh, he did? I guess I wasn't tuned in enough, considering I'm in Jerusalem only during the academic year.

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Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav

This is surprising, I thought Yahav is safe.

But the most surprising part is Berkovitz- I thought this would be between Leon and Elkin. Do you really believe Berkovitz has a chance? I mean, even if he makes it to the runoff, I could see the Leon and Elkin voters rallying against him and painting him as a leftist.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav

This is surprising, I thought Yahav is safe.

But the most surprising part is Berkovitz- I thought this would be between Leon and Elkin. Do you really believe Berkovitz has a chance? I mean, even if he makes it to the runoff, I could see the Leon and Elkin voters rallying against him and painting him as a leftist.

Leon is completely reliant on Haredi votes who are split with Deitsch. His ground game is dead.

I've spent 3 days in Jerusalem this week, as I move a lot in the city I take taxis quite often, they're a good bellwether. The number of them who are proper Likud and said they'll go for Berkovitz surprised me, it seems that there's a strong trend against Haredi policy even with core rightwing voters (I think the increased tourist nature of the city centre creates economic benefits for them now that are strong enough to sageguard them from their usual pro-haredi stance).

what will happen in the second round is a mystery...but for now I'll put a fiver on Elkin and Berkovitz making the run off

That make sense. I don't see anyone other than these two and Leon making it, and since it seems Leon is done, it's probably them. I still doubt Elkin will have much trouble in the 2nd round.

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I didn't vote today, spent the day with my bf instead. Of course, I'd vote if I lived in a city where the election mattered a lot, but considering my residency is in Ma'alot, it just doesn't matter enough to me to make the 3.5 hour trip to Jerusalem and waste the whole day.

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Turnout is lower in Jerusalem than it was in 2013, I suspect it has mainly to do with Palestinian natural growth. But either way turnout in non Haredi neighborhoods was pathetic, as it stands both Berkovitch and Elkin are the losers.

That's very sad. If that was what happened in the 1st round, the 2nd will be a landslide for the candidate against Berkovitch, if the latter will even make it there at all.

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After 10.3% counted in Jerusalem:
Berkovitch: 30.9%
Lion: 27.3%
Deitsch: 22.5%
Elkin: 19%

Where do you find that? I can see nothing reporting in that Interior Ministry site.

Also, from my unlearned observation, looks like Elkin is so far failing while Berkovitch is doing pretty well, but it's early. I guess that Berkovich's best chance is if Deitsch wins- he's "scary" enough to turn out the base, and against him, Berkovich could take some non-Haredi votes from Lion and Elkin. But right now I'd want to be in Lion's camp tbh.

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19% counted in Jerusalem:
Lion: 29.7%
Berkovitch: 29.3%
Deitsch: 22%
Elkin: 18.7%

God damn it. Someone supported by Lieberman and Deri is a corruption scandal just waiting to come, but looks like it's Mayor Lion after the 2nd round.

Also, keep it up, thanks for the reporting!

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In Nahariya, one of the cities I'm close to, it looks like a shocking upset as the incumbent, who's essentially a corrupt mini-dictator, is losing 62-23 to his challenger as of now.

In Beit Shemesh, the incubmbent (Mr. "there are no gays in my city", the Jewish Kadyrov) is leading 56-43 against his challenger, and looks to solidify the Haredi takeover of the city.

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19% counted in Jerusalem:
Lion: 29.7%
Berkovitch: 29.3%
Deitsch: 22%
Elkin: 18.7%

Wow, certainly unexpected. I fully thought Elkin (for whom I think I would have voted) and Berkovitch would get to the second round.

Any links to websites reporting results, at least for the big cities?

https://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-5384303,00.html
Only Hebrew for now.

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 The new Mayor of Nahariya, a right-wing periphery city, is a Labour member. Leader Gabbay is trying to tout this as an achievement.

[America Needs R'hllor]

The new Mayor of Nahariya, a right-wing periphery city, is a Labour member. Leader Gabbay is trying to tout this as an achievement.

The Loser gave a hilarious concession where he called the people of Naharia ungrateful.

Yeah lol. He proved his status within the youth of his city as a meme.

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@parrotguy

I see your friend Eyal was elected to the Jerusalem city council. first gay councilor?

Friend is a big word; more like acquaintance
But yeah, it's cool. I'm also satisfied with Hitorerut winning the most votes for the council, though the Haredi parties still control it and gained 1 more seat as you said.

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Did Aryeh King get elected in Jerusalem?

Yeah, seems like 2 seats for his list.

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@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.

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@Hnv1, do you know anything about what's happening in Beit Shemesh? I've seen a report in Globes that the incumbent is leading by only several hundred votes and that his challenger is likely to be elected thanks to the soldiers' votes, but in other sites and in the Interior Ministry's excel he's leading by over 2000. If the challenger wins it'll definitely be a surprise, considering the city's Haredi takeover and the fact that she's a woman.

The Home Office file is not up to date, the current margin is of 251 votes. I highly doubt the provisional votes are going to go 100% to Bloch so I guess the incumbent is going to win by even a finer margin.

Anyway she's a JH candidate so not exactly a battle between progress and backwardness

Yeah, Beit Shemesh is a Haredi vs religions zionist fight. Still, with a minimal amount of Haredi soldiers, I'd expect most of the provinsial votes to go to her, no? And there gotta be more than 300 voting soldiers in such a big city.

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Neharaya saw the repugnant incumbent knocked out in a landslide to a labour candidate who had the most beautiful thing to say "I'm not a political person". Jesus wept.

Well, Nahariya is a very right-wing city, so knocking down a corrupt incumbent and replacing him aith a Labour centrist is already impressive. Of course, Gabbay will try to tout this as a sign that he can get votes in the periphery, which it isn't.

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Aliza Bloch, a religious-zionist woman from the Jewish Home, upset the incumbent haredi Mayor of Beit Shemesh by a margin of 500 votes. I doubt this means much, but at least the guy whose rhetoric was that of a Jewish Kadyrov was defeated.

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Serves the TLV Likud right for their racially-charged campaign.
Also, does anyone know how extreme the Bnei Torah party is? I guess Berkovitch would try to combine Hitorerut with Havilio, Meretz, Elkin, JH, Likud and one of the Haredi parties, so I wonder which ones are the most palpable. Maybe Shas are kess extreme when it comes to Shabbat, or Agudat Israel because they didn't support Leon. Also, wouldn't JH make the plan to transfer more education resources to Eastern Jerusalem harder?

And as Meretz lost a seat, my acquittance won't enter the council. Oh well

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Yep, it's looking like Berkowitz nearly managed an upset against Leon, but it was not good enough. I highly doubt the remaining ballots plus the absentee ballots are enough to make that up. If it was a sabbatical day, I bet Berkowitz would win.