Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13
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Author Topic: Israel 2018 municipal elections Oct 30 and Nov 13  (Read 11592 times)
Hnv1
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« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2018, 01:59:52 AM »

Is Huldai running in Tel Aviv again?
Yes, running against a pale young version of him in Zamir, and radical TV pundit Assaf Harel from the left. I expect Huldai to win again, he's a great mayor. Shame he's too old to join the big league
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DavidB.
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« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2018, 01:23:29 PM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...

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Hnv1
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« Reply #27 on: October 21, 2018, 02:47:52 AM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

The District Court disqualified a front runner in the Haifa election because of a technicality where Labour party supported her and another candidate (she was dumb enough not to double check, and I'm fairly certain it was an inside hit in the Labour party). I think the SC will overturn it because of the normative impact for elections, but yet another evidence for the repugnant stench of Labour
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #28 on: October 21, 2018, 07:54:38 AM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

This is a stupid comment. Opposition to homosexuality exists all around the world and not only is it not centered in America, it's probably less prevalent in America than anywhere else in the world besides maybe Western Europe.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #29 on: October 21, 2018, 08:37:51 AM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

This is a stupid comment. Opposition to homosexuality exists all around the world and not only is it not centered in America, it's probably less prevalent in America than anywhere else in the world besides maybe Western Europe.
Opposition is universal, but LGBTQ rights as a focal of political discourse is very much American. The Haredi here never campaigned on it before, it's a strong mimic of the religious right campaign over there.
I would also point that the mere fact that Shas are running campaigns is a sort of Americanization of the political discourse for a party of their kind.

You can add that the stark Americanization of the political system (with Meretz and Liberman being the exceptions). That's an undeniable phenomena in politics here.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #30 on: October 21, 2018, 09:54:47 PM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

This is a stupid comment. Opposition to homosexuality exists all around the world and not only is it not centered in America, it's probably less prevalent in America than anywhere else in the world besides maybe Western Europe.
Opposition is universal, but LGBTQ rights as a focal of political discourse is very much American. The Haredi here never campaigned on it before, it's a strong mimic of the religious right campaign over there.
I would also point that the mere fact that Shas are running campaigns is a sort of Americanization of the political discourse for a party of their kind.

You can add that the stark Americanization of the political system (with Meretz and Liberman being the exceptions). That's an undeniable phenomena in politics here.

LGBT issues are not a focal point in Africa or Arab countries because opposition to them is overwhelming.

LGBT issues become focal points of national politics only if there is support for them.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #31 on: October 22, 2018, 03:34:24 AM »

Shas busy campaigning in the coastal city of Netanya: "On October 30, it is in your hands: only a strong Shas will stop the gay pride in Netanya"...


Americanization of Israeli politics, chapter 541.

This is a stupid comment. Opposition to homosexuality exists all around the world and not only is it not centered in America, it's probably less prevalent in America than anywhere else in the world besides maybe Western Europe.
Opposition is universal, but LGBTQ rights as a focal of political discourse is very much American. The Haredi here never campaigned on it before, it's a strong mimic of the religious right campaign over there.
I would also point that the mere fact that Shas are running campaigns is a sort of Americanization of the political discourse for a party of their kind.

You can add that the stark Americanization of the political system (with Meretz and Liberman being the exceptions). That's an undeniable phenomena in politics here.

LGBT issues are not a focal point in Africa or Arab countries because opposition to them is overwhelming.

LGBT issues become focal points of national politics only if there is support for them.
That was hardly a major political issue anywhere in Europe (part for the weird Paris protests).
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Hnv1
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« Reply #32 on: October 25, 2018, 02:01:56 AM »

Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #33 on: October 25, 2018, 02:55:34 AM »

Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav

This is surprising, I thought Yahav is safe.

But the most surprising part is Berkovitz- I thought this would be between Leon and Elkin. Do you really believe Berkovitz has a chance? I mean, even if he makes it to the runoff, I could see the Leon and Elkin voters rallying against him and painting him as a leftist.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #34 on: October 25, 2018, 04:24:23 AM »

Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav

This is surprising, I thought Yahav is safe.

But the most surprising part is Berkovitz- I thought this would be between Leon and Elkin. Do you really believe Berkovitz has a chance? I mean, even if he makes it to the runoff, I could see the Leon and Elkin voters rallying against him and painting him as a leftist.
Leon is completely reliant on Haredi votes who are split with Deitsch. His ground game is dead.

I've spent 3 days in Jerusalem this week, as I move a lot in the city I take taxis quite often, they're a good bellwether. The number of them who are proper Likud and said they'll go for Berkovitz surprised me, it seems that there's a strong trend against Haredi policy even with core rightwing voters (I think the increased tourist nature of the city centre creates economic benefits for them now that are strong enough to sageguard them from their usual pro-haredi stance).

what will happen in the second round is a mystery...but for now I'll put a fiver on Elkin and Berkovitz making the run off
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #35 on: October 25, 2018, 11:35:05 AM »

Well roundup for the big cities:

Jerusalem:
looks like a toss up to me, and a second round, but I think Berkovitz is edging it. wide support in both the left and the centre and also solid chunks of the right.

Tel Aviv:
Some polls are showing a closer race between Holdai and Zamir than one would imagine. Not sure why. Harel the fringe left candidate is on 10%. Still expect Holdai to come up top

Haifa:
The court reinstated the candidacy of Kalish-Rotem, while also doing her a great service of given her a lot of publicity just before the elections and tarnishing 2-3 of her opponents as evil conspires.
Toss up between her and Yahav

This is surprising, I thought Yahav is safe.

But the most surprising part is Berkovitz- I thought this would be between Leon and Elkin. Do you really believe Berkovitz has a chance? I mean, even if he makes it to the runoff, I could see the Leon and Elkin voters rallying against him and painting him as a leftist.
Leon is completely reliant on Haredi votes who are split with Deitsch. His ground game is dead.

I've spent 3 days in Jerusalem this week, as I move a lot in the city I take taxis quite often, they're a good bellwether. The number of them who are proper Likud and said they'll go for Berkovitz surprised me, it seems that there's a strong trend against Haredi policy even with core rightwing voters (I think the increased tourist nature of the city centre creates economic benefits for them now that are strong enough to sageguard them from their usual pro-haredi stance).

what will happen in the second round is a mystery...but for now I'll put a fiver on Elkin and Berkovitz making the run off

That make sense. I don't see anyone other than these two and Leon making it, and since it seems Leon is done, it's probably them. I still doubt Elkin will have much trouble in the 2nd round.
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danny
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« Reply #36 on: October 29, 2018, 01:15:48 PM »

Election is tomorrow and it's turning into an interesting one. Not just in Jerusalem where things were always going to be open, but also in Tel Aviv that has turned into a close race between longtime mayor Huldai and Assaf Zamir, and Haifa where the incumbent is looking like he is likely to lose.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #37 on: October 29, 2018, 04:14:03 PM »

What's the weird 40% thing? How does it work? Can somebody be elected in the first round with only like 42% of the vote? Also, is it true that 17-year olds can already vote?
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danny
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2018, 04:28:37 PM »

What's the weird 40% thing? How does it work? Can somebody be elected in the first round with only like 42% of the vote? Also, is it true that 17-year olds can already vote?

The answer is yes to both (the 40% part never really made much sense to me, it should be the normal 50%).
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danny
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« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2018, 02:17:35 AM »

Got my voting done early, voted for Berkovitch and His party Hitorerut. Took about about 2 minutes waiting with 1 person in front of me.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2018, 04:32:39 AM »

Got my voting done early, voted for Berkovitch and His party Hitorerut. Took about about 2 minutes waiting with 1 person in front of me.
I thought you were usually on the right, but then I also heard secular right-wingers are open to voting for Berkovitch in Jerusalem. May I ask why you voted for him? Smiley
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danny
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« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2018, 05:18:58 AM »

I thought you were usually on the right, but then I also heard secular right-wingers are open to voting for Berkovitch in Jerusalem. May I ask why you voted for him? Smiley

In national elections I always vote for the right, but in local elections left/right is less important so I'll often vote based more on religious issues or just generally who I think is the better candidate. I still wouldn't vote for a truly left wing candidate in Jerusalem who would to give parts of the city to the Palestinians, but a vaguely centrist one like berkovitch is OK. I definitely wouldn't vote for a Haredi based candidate like Lion or deutch. Elkin seems decent I just liked Berkovitch's party so far so I went with him.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2018, 05:34:31 AM »

Voted at 10am and Yahav’s people were doing their monkey business. I threatened the official on the scene that I’ll be calling the police and went to the local committee to complain about election fraud.

It’s going to be tight
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Hnv1
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« Reply #43 on: October 30, 2018, 06:18:07 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 06:34:11 AM by Hnv1 »

19.6% turnout at 12:30, a 4% increase (thanks to the new sabbatical day?)

Edit: 28.4%, +9% from 2013
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Hnv1
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« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2018, 10:42:08 AM »

17:00 turnout at 47.8%, which is a staggering 12.3% increase from 2013
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danny
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« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2018, 11:00:13 AM »

17:00 turnout at 47.8%, which is a staggering 12.3% increase from 2013
That number is inflated, it's the average of all municipalities without regard to the number of people in each municipality, and since turnout tends to be higher in smaller places, it's higher than it really is.

The real number is currently just below 40%.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2018, 11:30:37 AM »

17:00 turnout at 47.8%, which is a staggering 12.3% increase from 2013
That number is inflated, it's the average of all municipalities without regard to the number of people in each municipality, and since turnout tends to be higher in smaller places, it's higher than it really is.

The real number is currently just below 40%.
Still higher than 2013 then. The final turnout then was around 50%.
Jerusalem will have low turnout as they don’t go out to vote in the eastern part but I suspect turnout in the western side will be quite high.
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danny
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« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2018, 11:42:36 AM »

up to 42.5% turnout now.
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danny
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2018, 01:39:29 PM »

Up to 51.89% turnout now, which means that the final number for the previous two elections has already been beaten.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2018, 02:55:25 PM »

Up to 51.89% turnout now, which means that the final number for the previous two elections has already been beaten.
Still hardly impressive given that people got a day off.
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