Potential "sleeper" Senate races in 2020?

[MT Treasurer]

Given how badly Republicans are struggling to win in deep red territory like TN or WV this year, it’s safe to assume that there will be one or two (or more, if Trump loses decisively) "sleeper states" currently held by the GOP that they will struggle to defend in 2020. Any guess on which solid red state might become "surprisingly" competitive? I’m not talking about the obvious battleground states like MT, CO, NC, AZ, etc., but about other, more Republican states.

I have two states in mind:

Kansas - I could see someone like Svaty making this competitive, especially if Kobach wins and becomes unpopular pretty quickly.
South Carolina - I don’t think Graham is all that popular with the R base, and the state does have a high Democratic floor.

[Politician]

South Dakota (with Brendan Johnson or Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) and Louisiana are two other contenders.

[Yellowhammer]

Virginia, if someone decent can be persuaded to run.

[PAK Man]

South Dakota. I suspect if any Democrat besides Rick Weiland had run in 2014, the race would have been at least a little more competitive.

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama- Republicans would have to get a pretty bad recruit to not beat Doug Jones.

Kentucky- Mitch McConnell is still horrendusly unpopular, and if he turns back a possible primary challenge (Andy Barr, Matt Bevin) he could have trouble in November (Andy Beshear, Amy McGrath).

Texas- Given Ted Cruz's problems this year, I wouldn't be shocked if John Cornyn has similar problems in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, Rounds and Cassidy don’t strike me as particularly strong incumbents, though Rounds is almost certainly more vulnerable than Cassidy unless JBE decides to run for Senate.

TN is another possibility if Alexander retires (which seems likely) or loses the primary. I don’t think Democrats have to worry about any seat other than AL and MI, but I guess MN could become somewhat competitive if Trump’s having a very good night (unlikely).

[Gass3268]

Virginia, if someone decent can be persuaded to run.

Not with Trump on the ticket.

[MAINEiac4434]

Virginia, if someone decent can be persuaded to run.

lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS, should Laura Kelly win the gubernatorial election, which is possible in 2018

[Politician]

Virginia, if someone decent can be persuaded to run.

That's the problem. The Virginia GOP has no bench. 2013 and 2017 hit them hard.

[Tintrlvr]

Virginia, if someone decent can be persuaded to run.

That's the problem. The Virginia GOP has no bench. 2013 and 2017 hit them hard.

And 2019 is going to be another disaster for the Virginia GOP.

[Yellowhammer]

Virginia, if someone decent can be persuaded to run.

lol

How is Virginia more out of the question than South Dakota, South Carolina, and Louisiana?
Do I believe that Warner will lose? Absolutely not. Could he potentially lose given the right circumstances and the right candidate? Possibly. Hence “potential sleeper.”
It isn’t competitive, and will almost certainly not become competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt if Stephanie runs, Billie Sutton can run but Thune is popular

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Could see Warner getting primaried

[😥]

1.KS
2.KY
3.AR
4.LA
5.SC

[Torrain]

Cornyn gets termed out of the whip post, looks at the margin in the Cruz-O’Rourke race and retires.
Nothing says Tossup like an open race in a high turnout year in a state trending towards a more even PVI.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Alabama- Republicans would have to get a pretty bad recruit to not beat Doug Jones.

Kentucky- Mitch McConnell is still horrendusly unpopular, and if he turns back a possible primary challenge (Andy Barr, Matt Bevin) he could have trouble in November (Andy Beshear, Amy McGrath).

Texas- Given Ted Cruz's problems this year, I wouldn't be shocked if John Cornyn has similar problems in 2020.

The "this year we'll beat Mitch for sure" race is like the opposite of a sleeper - Dems will never ignore the tantalising dream of hitting one of their biggest enemies, but they'll never win the prize.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Cornyn gets termed out of the whip post, looks at the margin in the Cruz-O’Rourke race and retires.
Nothing says Tossup like an open race in a high turnout year in a state trending towards a more even PVI.

Whips have term limits?

Edit: Apparently! https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/mitch-mcconnell-senate-leadership-237943

Every leadership position except Leader has a 6 year limit, which just seems like more of a pain in the butt then something that actually prevents people from keeping power.

[politicallefty]

We probably won't know until summer 2020. I highly doubt Kansas though. It's toyed with us in the past and it hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

[Torrain]

Cornyn gets termed out of the whip post, looks at the margin in the Cruz-O’Rourke race and retires.
Nothing says Tossup like an open race in a high turnout year in a state trending towards a more even PVI.

Whips have term limits?

Edit: Apparently! https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/mitch-mcconnell-senate-leadership-237943

Every leadership position except Leader has a 6 year limit, which just seems like more of a pain in the butt then something that actually prevents people from keeping power.

Yeah, it's a barmy system.
If I had to guess, I'd say McConnell and co find Cornyn a cushy job in the executive branch, like when Sen. Baucus was made Ambassador to China in the final year of his senate term.

That way Thune can ascend to the Whip role and become heir-apparent to McConnell, with everyone below him moving up a slot.

Then Abbott appoints a high profile representative like Ken Paxton, Will Hurd, or George P. Bush,  and they run in 2020 against a Castro or O'Rourke again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pickups NC, CO, ME, KS, competetive KY, Alaska and GA

[Stranger in a strange land]

Alabama- Republicans would have to get a pretty bad recruit to not beat Doug Jones.

Kentucky- Mitch McConnell is still horrendusly unpopular, and if he turns back a possible primary challenge (Andy Barr, Matt Bevin) he could have trouble in November (Andy Beshear, Amy McGrath).

Texas- Given Ted Cruz's problems this year, I wouldn't be shocked if John Cornyn has similar problems in 2020.

Nah, Lyin' Ted is pretty uniquely unpopular and vulnerable in a way that a more-or-less generic R like Cornyn wouldn't be.

[Orser67]

SD and WV because they're the type of states that are willing to vote for congressional Democrats (granted it's been a while for SD), TX because it's (slowly) turning blue, and KS because of Republican problems in the state. Any of them flipping would probably require a retirement or scandal and a really good year for Democrats. I guess I wouldn't completely rule out SC and MS, either, but both are pretty inelastic.

Obviously AL will be competitive, and obviously the Republicans will try to target NH, MN, and MI after how close those states were in 2016. I guess VA could be competitive if Warner retires and it's a good Republican year.

[Former Kentuckian]

The only slim, very tiny chance Kentucky would be competitive is if Republicans lose the Senate in November and McConnell announces he's retiring- and McConnell ain't gonna retire regardless of what happens in November.

Even if McConnell did retire and it became an open race, the Democrat would have to contend with Trump being on the ticket.

[OBD]

Arkansas could get interesting if 1) Beebe runs and 2) Bredesen wins or comes close