From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

7:30 PM EST: POLLS CLOSE IN NORTH CAROLINA, OHIO, AND WEST VIRGINIA; DEMS TAKE FIRST LEAD IN HOUSE POPULAR VOTE


Richard Ojeda, Democratic nominee for WV-03, arrives back at his campaign HQ after knocking on doors on election day

November 6, 2018, 7:25 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, BECKLEY, WEST VIRGINIA
OJEDA FOR CONGRESS CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS PARKING LOT

Richard Ojeda turned off the ignition and stepped out of his campaign truck. He was a little bit tired, but nothing compared to Afghanistan. The polls were finally about to close, and he had spent the entire day knocking on doors himself all around Beckley.

He flipped on his phone, and refreshed the results so far across the country and the exit polls. He was encouraged by the national house exit polls having shown such a huge lead for Democrats, but he knew that WV-03 was a whole different story from the rest of the country. What was happening in Loudon County to Comstock and Wexler didn't have much to do with what happened here in southern West Virginia.

He checked KY-06 again for probably the 3rd time since the polls had closed there. My God, it keeps getting closer! Ojeda thought that this race, in a district not far away with another Democratic veteran candidate, was probably the best bellwether of how his might go. But still, there was no Lexington in WV-03. There were, however, the Bluefield Coal Mines.

...

meanwhile...

...

November 6, 2018, 7:30 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "It's now 7:30 EST. The polls have just closed in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia, and we have some more characterizations of KEY RACES!"



Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can project that Democrat Sherrod Brown will WIN the Senate race in Ohio."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Senate race in West Virginia as TOO CLOSE TO CALL."


Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can characterize the Gubernatorial race in Ohio as TOO CLOSE TO CALL."


Wolf Blitzer: "John, how are things looking over on the magic wall?"

...

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 1 D --- 0 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 0 D --- 0 R

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[/quote]


John King: "In that crucial Indiana Senate race, Democrat Joe Donnelly has once again pulled into the lead, it looks like with another big batch of votes from urban areas including Gary and Donnelly's hometown of Fort Bend. About a 3 point lead for Donnelly now. In West Virginia, the exit polls showing Joe Manchin with a slight 4 point lead."

John King: "In the Gubernatorial races, Democrat James Smith has now pulled ahead, but only 29% in there. Still not much in from Florida and Georgia, those key Gubernatorial races there."

John King: "In the House, there are now so many races where votes are being counted that it is becoming hard to keep up with them all. Overall though, something interesting and notable. The Democrats have now, for the first time tonight, pulled into a narrow lead in the overall National House Popular Vote. The states where we have results from are still a bit Republican leaning overall, but we are starting to get more results from Democratic states like Virginia. Here's how the House vote has changed over the course of the night so far, Democrats now leading the popular vote overall."



John King: "One interesting House race that has gotten a lot of national attention is WV-03. The Democrat there, an exceptional candidate, is army Veteran and State Senator Richard Ojeda. This is a district that voted for Trump by 50 points, but Joe Manchin is expected to carry this district, and Ojeda is barely ahead by 2 points in the exit poll."

Wolf Blitzer: "The district voted for Trump by 50 points, wow."

John King: "That's right, Wolf. Democrats also seeming to do very well in the North Carolina House exit polls. There are several Republican-held districts, NC-02, NC-05, NC-06, NC-09, and NC-13, where the exit polls all seem to be showing potentially competitive races. The exit polls in Ohio, though, seeming to look better for Republicans, except for OH-01."

John King: "We've just got our first votes in from VA-07, Republican Dave Brat with about a 5 point lead so far. In VA-05, the Republicans also ahead, but in VA-02, the Democrats up by 6 or 7 with 23% reporting."

John King: "In Southern Florida, there are 3 hotly contested heavily Hispanic districts with large Cuban-American populations. Cubans of course have traditionally voted Republican, but have been getting more Democratic and President Trump is not popular in that community. In FL-25, thought to be the most Republican of these districts, Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart is actually slightly behind so far by about 3 points with 14% in. In FL-26, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell with a HUGE advantage over the popular moderate Republican incumbent Carlos Curbelo. That seems too big, maybe that's a transcription error, actually, those do happen as we get results in. Or maybe it is just some very heavily Democratic precincts."

John King: "In FL-27, this is a really interesting one. This is the most Democratic of these districts, but there is probably the biggest Republican advantage here in candidate quality. The Republican candidate Maria Elvira Salazar, a well known Telemnudo Journalist, has been running a terrific campaign. The Democrat, Donna Shalala, former Health and Human Services secretary under Bill Clinton and former head of the Clinton foundation. But Shalala can't speak Spanish, and has been criticized for running a pretty lackluster campaign. So far Shalala is ahead by 6, but this is a district that voted for Hillary Clinton by about 20 points."

Wolf Blitzer: "What about that race we've been monitoring in Kentucky?"

John King: "Oh yeah, KY-06. Wow, it has narrowed even further. Amy McGrath leading only 50.1% to 49.9% now with 92% reporting. I guess this one is going to be another barnburner."

[2016]

Keep in mind: I think ANY House Race that is within 0.5 of a Percentage Point has a Recount Provision I believe.

KY-6...WOW...what a close Race...570-Vote lead for McGrath. Where are those last 8% of Precincts? Is Fayette County (Lexington) all in? If yes Barr might pull this out.

HUGE DESCREPANCIES in the two Statewide Races in Florida. Rick Scott is up big while on the other side DeSantis is down big. A bit odd but then Scott in his last 4 years as Governor governed more like a Moderate while DeSantis is a conservative firebrand.

[OBD]

Keep in mind: I think ANY House Race that is within 0.5 of a Percentage Point has a Recount Provision I believe.

KY-6...WOW...what a close Race...570-Vote lead for McGrath. Where are those last 8% of Precincts? Is Fayette County (Lexington) all in? If yes Barr might pull this out.

HUGE DESCREPANCIES in the two Statewide Races in Florida. Rick Scott is up big while on the other side DeSantis is down big. A bit odd but then Scott in his last 4 years as Governor governed more like a Moderate while DeSantis is a conservative firebrand.

Yeah what on earth is happening in Florida lol

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Keep in mind: I think ANY House Race that is within 0.5 of a Percentage Point has a Recount Provision I believe.

KY-6...WOW...what a close Race...570-Vote lead for McGrath. Where are those last 8% of Precincts? Is Fayette County (Lexington) all in? If yes Barr might pull this out.

HUGE DESCREPANCIES in the two Statewide Races in Florida. Rick Scott is up big while on the other side DeSantis is down big. A bit odd but then Scott in his last 4 years as Governor governed more like a Moderate while DeSantis is a conservative firebrand.

Yeah what on earth is happening in Florida lol

The votes for the 2 races are selected randomly but independently. You can think of it as though for the Gov race, more Democratic precincts have reported so far, while for the Sen race, more Republican precincts have reported so far. So they are likely to get closer together when more votes come in.

[libertpaulian]

GO! JOE! GO! 

(Both Joes!)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Sc-3 not being the most R district is nice to see

[libertpaulian]

IN-05 being 55-41 is disastrous for the Republicans.  Brooks won the district 61-34 in 2016.  I'm betting Donnelly broke 40% in Hamilton County if this is the case.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

7:40 PM EST: KY-06 CALLED



November 6, 2018, 7:40 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...


John King: "And... a bunch of additional precincts have reported in KY-06, and now we're up to 98% reporting. These last precincts appear to have strongly favored Andy Barr, and he has pulled into a lead of almost 2 points 50.9%-49.1% over the Democrat Amy McGrath. What's that? Wolf?"

...

Wolf Blitzer: "We have a projection, John."



Wolf Blitzer: "CNN projects that Andy Barr is the winner in Kentucky's 6th Congressional district. Republican incumbent Andy Barr holds on to his seat in Kentucky's 6th district."

...

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 1 D --- 0 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 0 D --- 0 R

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[/quote]


Wolf Blitzer: "Let's go back live to Andy Barr's victory celebration. We are getting word that Andy Barr is about to come out to address his supporters. Chuck, what's the situation?"

Chuck S: "That's right Wolf, Andy Barr is about to come out and speak. Spirits here have lifted mightily now that those last votes came in and Barr has been declared the winner, and... wait, here comes Congressman Barr..."


Congressman Andy Barr (R: KY-06) celebrates with supporters at his victory party.

Crowd cheers

Andy Barr: "Thank you! Thank you!"

Crowd cheers

Andy Barr: "Thank you so much! You know, they said there was going to be a wave. But you, but you..."

Crowd cheers

Andy Barr: "You built a wall! A sea wall! A big red wall to hold back the wave! You did it, with your hard work! You held back the wave!"

Crowd cheers

Andy Barr: "And with President Trump's leadership, maybe now we'll build a wall on the Mexican border too!"

Crowd cheers

Andy Barr: "Those liberals from out of state sent endless millions of dollars here to Amy McGrath. But we told them, no. Not here. Not in Kentucky. Maybe in New York. Maybe in Los Angeles. But not here!"

CNN breaks away

Wolf Blitzer: "Well, a major early victory for Andy Barr and for Republicans. Lets go now to Anderson Cooper who is with our panel."


Anderson Cooper: "What do you make of Andy Barr's re-election?"

Republican Strategist: "You know, it really is a drink of liquid courage for all the Republican incumbents out there, and challengers in those Senate races against Red State Democrats."

Anderson Cooper: "And what impact is President Trump having on the results so far?"

Democratic Strategist: "This election, like all midterms, is a referendum on the incumbent. And President Trump is receiving a failing grade from the voters. Even McGrath running close but falling just short, this is still just an incredible swing from 2014 and 2016."

Republican Strategist: "But, if the midterm is a referendum on President Trump, then it's like Andy Barr said - not here. Not in Kentucky. It's just like Andy Barr said. You know, media elites in New York and Washington may not like President Trump, but he is still pretty popular in a lot of these districts and in a lot of states, especially many of the states with key Senate races."

Democratic Strategist: "But the other side of that coin is that there are a whole lot of districts where President Trump is very unpopular. Just look at VA-10, for example. Look at GA-06. 46% in, and we've got a 4 point lead there. Republican Karen Handel may have won that seat in the special election, but we could win it now! Look at Hamilton County, Indiana, in the Senate race there. That county is not all in, but Joe Donnelly is sitting at 43% there. That is just an unheard of number for a Democrat there. And anyway, it is clearly not true that Democrats can't compete in places where Trump is popular. Just look at that exit poll for WV-03 - that district voted for Trump by 50 points, and yet our Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda is up in the exit polls by 2, and... up in the votes in so far by 3."

Republican Strategist: "Yeah, but take your example of Hamilton County. Donnelly may be doing well there, but even so he is barely ahead. In previous years, a Democrat who did that well there would be winning easily. Not so now."

Democratic Strategist: "The bottom line is, Democrats are now starting to get a lead in the National House Popular vote. We're up to a 4.5 point lead now, and I think it's going to keep going up further. We may not have picked up KY-06, but we're about to start picking up seats."

Republican Strategist: "We'll have to see about that."

Anderson Cooper: "Yes, we'll see what happens. A lot of big races with results coming in. And I'm hearing we have to go back to John King now, he has some news... Could it be Indiana, John?"

...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

IN-05 being 55-41 is disastrous for the Republicans.  Brooks won the district 61-34 in 2016.  I'm betting Donnelly broke 40% in Hamilton County if this is the case.

Dems have done a bit better there in Presidential races, but yeah. It is a manifestation of the trend from 2016 to some degree. I guess one of the panelists must have seen your comment, because then they started talking about Hamilton County (has some similarities to Delaware County OH in OH-12).

[Pericles]

Sad McGrath lost, optimistic for Dems overall though.

[2016]

The Bottom Line: Republicans doing much better than expected. Thus far Democrats have not taken away a single House Race.

[Cold War Liberal]

Sad McGrath lost, optimistic for Dems overall though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

7:50 PM EST: 10 MINUTES UNTIL POLLS CLOSE IN 17 STATES



November 6, 2018, 7:50 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...


John King: "We're still getting lots more results in, and some of these races are getting enough of the vote in that we're starting to get more of a picture of how things are going."

...

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 1 D --- 0 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 0 D --- 0 R

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[/quote]


John King: "In Indiana, things have tightened up again. Braun fighting his way back, and Donnelly now has just a .4% lead - about 5000 votes, with 92% reporting. At this point, this race could go either way, and help determine who controls the United States Senate."

Wolf Blitzer: "A key race. A key, key race, John."

John King: "Yes. And in Florida, we're up to 47% reporting now, almost half the vote in, and Democrat Bill Nelson has a narrow 3 point lead. Not as much in West Virginia, just 19% in so far, but Democrat Joe Manchin with a wide 17 point lead there so far."

John King: "Keep your eyes on these Governor's races, too. Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and apparently South Carolina. The Republican, Henry McMaster, surprisingly down so far by 12 points in South Carolina with 43% in. This was expected to be a pretty solid GOP victory. But, of course, it may be that Democratic areas have reported more so far. Ron DeSantis still with a lead in Florida, but it has been steadily slipping as more votes come in. In Ohio, Mike DeWine with a wide lead, but only 21% in. And look at this, 0% in from Cuyahoga County, Cleveland, a heavily Democratic city, so far. So that could get closer when more votes come in, remember the exit poll actually had the Democrat Richard Cordray slightly ahead. And in Georgia, Republican Brian Kemp had been leading, but Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams just took a narrow 4 point lead, 51-47, with 51% in. So a lot of crucial Gubernatorial races, Wolf."

Wolf Blitzer: "Yes, Republicans holding a clear majority of the nations Governor's mansions, Democrats looking to win some of those back. And this is of particular importance this year because the Governors will influence Congressional redistricting."

John King: "Exactly, Wolf. And looking at the Congressional results, Democrats still with about a 4 point lead in the popular vote. In Florida, Democrats slightly up in FL-15 and FL-18, two races in Republican-leaning seats they hoped to have a shot at, but Republicans leading in others like FL-06, FL-16. In South Florida, the Democrats ahead with 63% in by 4 or 5 points. They're trying to take these Cuban seats, and ahead at least there against Carlos Curbelo. Democrat Donna Shalala up even more narrowly in FL-27 so far, but only 36% in there and we're hearing that there's vote out in Little Havana, but also Miami Beach. And in FL-25, Republican incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart so far holding firm by about 8 points."

John King: "Democrats also narrowly up in GA-06 and GA-07, two suburban Atlanta seats they would love to take. Remember, Democrats posted big early voting numbers in the Atlanta area, Stacey Abrams' turnout operation may be helping the Congressional candidates there. South Carolina surprisingly has Democrats up in SC-02 and SC-05 so far. Along with the Governor's race, South Carolina better than anyone would have expected for Democrats, at least so far. Fairly strong African American turnout in the South so far, it seems."

John King: "In Virginia, Democrats have a narrow lead in the Virginia Beach area VA-02, but Republican Dave Brat with a big lead in VA-07. Look though, still a lot of votes out in the Richmond suburbs, where the Democrat Abigail Spanberger is expected to do well. In VA-05, Republican Denver Riggleman with a wide lead, but only 37% in from Albermarle County, Charlottesville, home to the University of Virginia."

Anderson Cooper: "Over on our panel, I think someone has something to say."



Democratic Strategist: "Just a few minutes ago, things were looking down for Democrats when KY-06 was called for Andy Barr. But now, Joe Donnelly with a slight lead in Indiana, and a lot of these house races are looking good."

Republican Strategist: "Some of these early results are indeed worrisome, but in many of these races, I am hearing that there are still a lot of votes out in Conservative areas. I doubt, for example, that the Democrats are going to hold this lead in South Carolina. Meanwhile, Ohio is looking pretty great so far. And you know what state will be crucial in 2 years in the Presidential election, don't you? So I think we may yet see a lot of Republican candidates building a wall to hold out this so-called 'wave.'"

Democratic Strategist: "Maybe in some cases, but to me it looks like we are at least headed for a Democratic majority in the House."

Republican Strategist: "Look at the numbers so far though. 30 races called for Republicans, 29 for Democrats. That is not a wave."

Wolf Blitzer: "In just a few minutes, polls will close in 17 more states plus the District of Columbia. We will have exit polls from all of them. Stay tuned, because this will be the deluge."

[Huey Long is a Republican]

dang, this kind of attention to detail might work for some Timelines where Election Night is detailed overnight after a campaign season.

[libertpaulian]

More!  Please don't let Donnelly lose, haha.

[OBD]

More!  Please don't let Donnelly lose, haha.

[Continential]

This reminds me of the 2008 Coverage of Hope Change and Nuteg a Alt History timeline

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/hope-change-and-nutmeg-a-us-political-timeline.315537/

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is almost as stressful to follow as a real election!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is almost as stressful to follow as a real election!

I hesitate to say "good" to that, but that's the goal - to make it feel something like a preview of what election night 2018 might feel like.

[2016]

Florida Governor Total Vote 2014
5,940,898 Votes

Florida Governor tonight based on that Sheet

3,514,471 Votes

My guess estimate is that there could be still 3M outstanding Vote left to count in FL-GOV & FL-SEN Races.

Of Course your modelling will not be as sophisticated as real Campaign Modelling & Polling.
It's still pretty good though.

Looking forward to the 8pm Hour

[2016]

This is almost as stressful to follow as a real election!

I hesitate to say "good" to that, but that's the goal - to make it feel something like a preview of what election night 2018 might feel like.

I'm really enjoying this.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Florida Governor Total Vote 2014
5,940,898 Votes

Florida Governor tonight based on that Sheet

3,514,471 Votes

My guess estimate is that there could be still 3M outstanding Vote left to count in FL-GOV & FL-SEN Races.

Of Course your modelling will not be as sophisticated as real Campaign Modelling & Polling.
It's still pretty good though.

Looking forward to the 8pm Hour

Something tells me that there's going to be a 21.86920227% increase in turnout as compared to 2014. Thinking about it for a minute, that is probably too much, but it's hard to really say until election day. Maybe not, since both Ds and Rs seem highly energized. Anyway, just a little voice is somehow telling me 21.86920227% increase for FL-GOV.

[2016]

Florida Governor Total Vote 2014
5,940,898 Votes

Florida Governor tonight based on that Sheet

3,514,471 Votes

My guess estimate is that there could be still 3M outstanding Vote left to count in FL-GOV & FL-SEN Races.

Of Course your modelling will not be as sophisticated as real Campaign Modelling & Polling.
It's still pretty good though.

Looking forward to the 8pm Hour

Something tells me that there's going to be a 21.86920227% increase in turnout as compared to 2014. Thinking about it for a minute, that is probably too much, but it's hard to really say until election day. Maybe not, since both Ds and Rs seem highly energized. Anyway, just a little voice is somehow telling me 21.86920227% increase for FL-GOV.

Total Vote 2012 FL POTUS Race

8,470,205

2016 Race

9,501,617

Just like in POTUS Races the Vote Share will increase in MidTerms as well. We'll have to see by how much but that can only by done when everything is in.

[Coastal Elitist]

Maybe I misread things but I believe you mentioned exit polling for house races. I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that house races do not do exit polls.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Maybe I misread things but I believe you mentioned exit polling for house races. I may be wrong, but I was under the impression that house races do not do exit polls.

You are correct that in reality there are no exit polls for house races. I am including exit polls, however, simply because I already can automatically generate exit polls for any race, so it is no more work for me to include House exit polls. It is just a little something extra to make things more interesting, requiring basically no additional effort on my part, so that is why I am including them.