From 2018 To Beyond: Starting with Detailed 2018 Election Night Coverage

[OBD]

Have to admit that an almost 17 point difference between the Wisconsin Senate race and Wisconsin Governor race makes little sense to me. Just looking at the house numbers in Wisconsin, it should be an across the board Democratic sweep.

that indicates to me that mostly R areas are reporting in the GOV race. Seems odd to me precincts are reporting for different races at different times.

Maybe Dane County is still out cuz at this point Evers needs >90% of the vote to come back.

[2016]

Have to admit that an almost 17 point difference between the Wisconsin Senate race and Wisconsin Governor race makes little sense to me. Just looking at the house numbers in Wisconsin, it should be an across the board Democratic sweep.

that indicates to me that mostly R areas are reporting in the GOV race. Seems odd to me precincts are reporting for different races at different times.

Maybe Dane County is still out cuz at this point Evers needs >90% of the vote to come back.

I think Walker has this. There is no way Evers finds some "Magic Boxes" to claw back a nearly 150K Vote lead.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Have to admit that an almost 17 point difference between the Wisconsin Senate race and Wisconsin Governor race makes little sense to me. Just looking at the house numbers in Wisconsin, it should be an across the board Democratic sweep.

that indicates to me that mostly R areas are reporting in the GOV race. Seems odd to me precincts are reporting for different races at different times.

Yeah, the votes are reported randomly for each race independently. There are not really any "precincts" or "counties" in the results reporting model, just votes.

[Florida Man for Crime]

10:30 PM EST: SD-GOV, CO-GOV, AZ-GOV, NM-GOV CALLED


Minnesota Governor-Elect Tim Walz

November 6, 2018, 10:30 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "We've got 4 new Governors races to call. In South Dakota, the Republicans have gained a lot of votes, and we've just called it for Kristi Noem. None of the others are big surprises, but Democrat Jared Polis winning Colorado, Republican Doug Ducey winning Arizona, and Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham winning New Mexico."

John King: "Also, in Wisconsin, Scott Walker's lead has shrunk a bit, but we are up to 94% reporting now and he leads by a bit more than 5% there. It is looking good for him. But on the other hand, Democrats are still holding on to a narrow lead in Kansas."

John King: "In the Senate, the Arizona Senate race is becoming clearer. 90% in, and Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has a 10 point lead. We have not quite called it yet, but it is very doubtful that Martha McSally can come back from this. A lot of ticket splitting in Arizona between the Senate race and the Gubernatorial race, though, Wolf."

John King: "The other race that bears watching is the Special Senate election in Minnesota - Democrat Tina Smith is up with 71% in, but only by 2%. At least so far, she is dramatically underperfoming Amy Klobuchar and Tim Walz, although she was doing better in the exit poll. We will keep an eye on this one."

John King: "It's very early still in Montana, North Dakota, and Nevada, but so far Republican Matt Rosendale is up in Montana, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is up in North Dakota, and Democrat Jacky Rosen is up in Nevada."

Wolf Blitzer: "Any more news on the House? How about tose close race in Pennsylvania and Michigan, John?"

John King: "Nothing more in from MI-07 yet, but Democrats have apparently gained PA-10 by the slimmest of margins, picked up CO-06 in the Denver suburbs, MN-02 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs, have held MN-01, have picked up NM-02 in southern New Mexico, "

John King: "Republicans have held MO-02, and a big hold in Kansas - KS-02 holding for the Republicans despite a strong race from Democrat Paul Davis. In New York, Republicans have held NY-27 after a scandal-plauged resignation from Chris Collins, and Peter King, long time incumbent on Long Island, also holding on comfortably in NY-02. And here is a big one that our panelists were just discussing - Republicans have held Paul Ryans seat, WI-01, and Republicans also now lead in WI-05 and WI-06. A big night for Republicans in Wisconsin, at least if Governor Walker indeed also holds on."

[Florida Man for Crime]

10:30 PM EST: SD-GOV, CO-GOV, AZ-GOV, NM-GOV CALLED (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 19 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 12 D --- 15 R

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[/quote]

[Florida Man for Crime]

10:40 PM EST: AZ-SEN AND WI-GOV CALLED, ND-SEN, NV-SEN, AND MT-SEN NARROW


Knute-Mentum?

November 6, 2018, 10:40 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "Well, we've got a big win to call for the Democrats, but also a big win to call for the Republicans. For the Democrats, Kyrsten Sinema has won the Arizona Senate race. And for the Republicans, Scott Walker has won the Wisconsin Governor's race."

John King: "And we've got some more updates on other races. In the Senate, the Minnesota Special Election is shifting in the Democrats' favor. Just a few minutes ago, Tina Smith only led by 2 or 3 percent, but now she is up by almost 9 with 94% reporting. Meanwhile we've gotten more results in from Nevada, Montana, and North Dakota, and every single one of those has gotten somewhat closer. I Nevada, Jacky Rosen's lead is down to 11, with 55% in. In North Dakota, Heidi Heitkamp's lead is down to 14, with 33% in. And in Montana, Matt Rosendale's lead is down to 5 with 60% in."

John King: "And in the Gubernatorial races, we've got a close one in Kansas on our hands. 94% in now, and the Democrat Laura Kelly is up by just over 1 point. In Iowa, the Democrat Fred Hubbell is up by 4 with 42% in. And in Oregon, Knute Buehler, the Republican, has cut Kate Brown's lead to under 9 points. That is much better for him now than the exit poll that showed Brown "

Wolf Blitzer: "Could there be some Knute-mentum?"

John King: "I don't know, but I can tell you that I'd vote for him based on his name alone. What a terrific name. Enough with all the Tina Smiths, Ron Johnsons, and I hate to say it, even the John Kings. More of the Knute Buehlers and Xochitl Torres Smalls, please!"

Wolf Blitzer: "We'll have to get President Trump to come on some time and fire you, John."

John King smiles and laughs, but then somehow can't stop worrying



John King: "We've also got an update on the House. The National House Popular Vote seems to have more or less stabilized over the last hour or so, with the Democrats having about a 9 point lead. However, that could go up when California and the rest of the West Coast come in. But it has stabilized much more than before, when the Democrats were gaining. Republicans have been making some small gains in the last few minutes:"

[Florida Man for Crime]

10:40 PM EST: AZ-SEN AND WI-GOV CALLED, ND-SEN, NV-SEN, AND MT-SEN NARROW (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 19 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 12 D --- 16 R

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[/quote]

[OBD]

KNUTE KNUTE KNUTE KNUTE KNUTE

[Florida Man for Crime]

10:50 PM EST: THE CALM BEFORE THE CALIFORNISTORM


Knute-Mentum?

November 6, 2018, 10:50 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

John King: "We still have results coming in in a lot of races, but many of them have been called at this point, so the pace seems to be slowing down a bit. However, we are about to get a lot of new results in as polls close at 11:00 EST in California, Hawaii, and Washington."

Anderson Cooper: "I guess you could say we are in the calm before the Californistorm."

John King: "That's right, Anderson. Over the past 20 minutes, we've had four more Democratic pickups in the House called. Those are MI-07, TX-24, KS-03, and NY-19. Notable holds by the Republicans include AZ-06, CO-03, and WI-06. There are a lot more interesting House races coming up in California and Washington, however, plus some close ones in other states where votes are still being counted. Right now Democrats have won 181 House seats, and Republicans have won 170. You need 215 for a majority. Democrats currently have 39 incumbents in California, 2 in Hawaii, and 6 in Washington. So even if Democrats don't win a single one of the districts where votes are still being counted, and even if they don't pick up a single additional seat in California, Hawaii, Washington, or Alaska, then as long as none of their incumbents lose, that is enough to get Demorats up to 228 seats - 13 more than are needed for a majority. So right now, it is really just a question of how large the Democratic majority in the House will be."

John King: "A few more votes have also come in from North Dakota and Nevada in the Senate races. Nothing from Montana. In North Dakota, Heitkamp's lead continues to dwindle, now down to 11 points with 53% in. In Nevada though, Jacky Rosen's lead has now grown to 16 points with 70% in."

John King: "And in Kansas, the Gubernatorial race is now extremely close. 96% in, and the Democrats are now ahead just 46.6%-46.3%. And in Oregon, the Knute-Mentum we were seeing seems to have run its course, a least for the moment. Democratic incumbent Kate Brown's lead is now up to 13 points, with 41% reporting."

[Florida Man for Crime]

10:50 PM EST: THE CALM BEFORE THE CALIFORNISTORM (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 21 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 12 D --- 16 R

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[/quote]

[OBD]

Why did you say Kate Brown is up by 13? Looking at the results it looks like Knute is the one leading?

Also a technical issue for me as this timeline doesn't bump for me for some reason. Did I do something wrong?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Why did you say Kate Brown is up by 13? Looking at the results it looks like Knute is the one leading?

Also a technical issue for me as this timeline doesn't bump for me for some reason. Did I do something wrong?

Oh, you are right - I misread it - Knute is up by 13 in fact! I would edit the post to fix it, but I cannot edit posts right now because my posts are under post moderation at the moment and that blocks modifying posts.

You are also right that the timeline doesn't bump. This appears to be a bug in the forum code that results from the posts having to be approved by moderators before they are posted.

[GeorgiaModerate]

218 House seats are needed for a majority, not 215.

[Florida Man for Crime]

11:00 PM EST: WEST COAST WAVE


If everybody had an ocean
Across the U. S. A.
Then everybody'd be surfin'
Like Californi-a
You'd seem 'em wearing their baggies
Huarachi sandals too
A bushy bushy blonde hairdo
Surfin' U. S. A.

November 6, 2018, 11:00 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "Polls have just closed in California, Hawaii, and Washington State, and we can make characterizations of some of the major statewide races based  on our exit polls."



Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can project that Democrat Diane Feinstein will WIN the Senate race in California."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can project that Democrat Mazie Hirono will WIN the Senate race in Hawaii."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can project that Democrat Maria Cantwell will WIN the Senate race in Washington State."


Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can project that Democrat Gavin Newsom will WIN the Gubernatorial race in California."

Wolf Blitzer: "Based on our exit polls, we can project that Democrat David Ige will WIN the Gubernatorial race in Hawaii."

Wolf Blitzer: "So, a clean sweep of all the major statewide races in California, Hawaii, and Washington State at this hour for the Democrats. People in Alaska are still voting, but everywhere else, the polls have now closed. Let's go to John King at the magic wall for some updates on results coming in."

John King: "In the Senate, now, we are getting more votes in. In Montana, 78% in and John Tester, the Democrat, has had his lead cut by Matt Rosendale to just over 1 point, 49.7% to 48.6%. In North Dakota, it is also very close. Heidi Heitkamp's lead has dwindled to just 50.2% to 49.8% with 69% in. In Nevada, however, Jacky Rosen's lead over incumbent Republican Dean Heller has risen to 22 points with 78% in. We haven't called it yet, but surely that one will have to be called soon. Heller was thought by many to be unbeatable, so quite an accomplishment for Jacky Rosen if she pulls it out."

John King: "In Kansas, enough votes have come in to allow us to call the Gubernatorial race for Republican Chris Kobach. Nothing more in from Oregon, where Republican Knute Buehler leads by 13 points (CNN made an error just a few minutes ago when we referred to Kate Brown as leading, but actually it is Buehler in the lead). And in the Iowa gubernatorial race, the Democrats continue to hold on to about a 5 or 6 point lead."

John King: "In the House, we've called NY-01 for Republican Lee Zeldin, NY-21 for Republican Elise Stefanik, and NY-24 for Republican John Katko. MN-08 is extremely close now, 146,697 for the Democrat Joe Radinovich to 146,665 for the Republican Pete Stauber with 99% in. We are also monitoring AZ-08, where Democrat Hiral Tipirneni has a narrow lead of under a point with 95% in - she lost by about 5 in a special election a few months ago. And in NE-02, Republican incumbent Don Bacon holds a 2 point lead with 94% in."

John King: "And let's take a look at those exit polls in the key House raes in California and Washington. First, here's a surprise - CA-01 is 50-50. That district was not expected to be competitive, and is Republican held. A good sign for Democrats if they are competitive there. In CA-10, Republican Jeff Denham is up 53-47 in the exit. In CA-21, Republican David Valadao up 52-48. In CA-22, 51-49 Republican. This is a bit of a surprise if it indeed ends up that close. This is Devin Nunes, the Republican House Intelligence Committee Chair's district. This is a very Republican district and most analysts thought Nunes was safe, but nonetheless a huge amount of money poured into this district on both sides, because of Nunes' high profile role in the Russia investigation. Just in the 3rd quarter alone, Nunes raised $3.15 million, and Janz raised $4.3 million. In Los Angelese County in CA-25, Democrat Katie Hill is way up in the exit poll, 62-38. And there are a lot of districts in or partly in Orange County that we will be watching. CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-49. The Democrats have double digit leads in the exit polls for all of those except CA-39, where Republican Young Kim leads the exit poll 51-49. If you are a Democrat, you probably like these California exit polls."

John King: "And in Washington State, the exits have WA-03 as a dead heat, WA-05 is a 4 point Republican advantage, and WA-08 is a 4 point Democratic advantage. WA-05 is the seat of prominent Republican Cathy McMorris Rogers."

[Florida Man for Crime]

11:00 PM EST: WEST COAST WAVE (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 21 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 12 D --- 17 R

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[/quote]

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cruz, we're starting to get withdrawal symptoms.

[2016]

I just got of the Phone from Florida. The Elections Divisions Director says that in the Senate Race because of the 0.3 margin between Nelson and Scott there will be "Manual Recount" under Florida State Law. That Recount could up to 5 weeks as FL has to count 7,2 Million Votes manually. This Race isn't over folks. The Rick Scott Campaign already claiming Vote Counting Errors in Volusia County.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Cruz, we're starting to get withdrawal symptoms.

I am posting updates each day, the problem is that you don't see them. But if you look above, you should see that it is a new update from yesterday (and I am about to do another one for today as well). This is because my posts are on moderator review, and there is a bug that stops my posts from bumping threads and showing that it is updated (even after my post gets approved and added to the thread). So you have to look specifically for this thread and readers have to post in it periodically to bump it up to the top, otherwise it will just go down to the bottom even when I am updating it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

11:10 PM EST: WHAT DOES A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE MEAN?

Speaker Pelosi again?

November 6, 2018, 11:10 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "I'm told we've now gotten enough votes in from Nevada to call the Senate race there for Democrat Jacky Rosen. But now we are going to go to our panel for some analysis and discussion. Anderson Cooper?"

Anderson Cooper: "We've brough in CNN Chief Legal Analyst Jeffrey Toobin, along with the rest of our panel, to discuss what a Democratic controlled house would mean. Jeffrey, it now looks pretty clear that the Democrats will take the House, what does that mean?"

Jeffrey Toobin: "Well, Anderson, the first thing that will have to be cleared up is who the Speaker is. Nancy Pelosi wants to be speaker again, but quite a few of the Democrats running in Republican-leaning congressional districts have said they won't support her. So that needs to be worked out, and a lot of that will depend on just how large of a majority Democrats have. If it is a narrow one, Pelosi will have a tough time getting the votes. But if it is a large majority, Pelosi will probably be Speaker again."

Anderson Cooper: "We'll have to see how big the majority is, then. What will a Democratic House majority do?"

Jeffrey Toobin: "In a word, investigations, investigations, investigations. With control of House committees, Democrats will have subpoena power and can investigate the Trump administration. The House Republicans a while ago circulated a list of things they thought a Democratic House might investigate, and actually it's not a bad list. Can we show it on screen here?"

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Jeffrey Toobin: "So, a lot. And to that list we probably need to add a few other things, like the sexual assault allegations against Justice Kavanaugh."

Anderson Cooper: "And what will they do legislatively?"

Jeffrey Toobin: "Well, one area where Democrats and Republicans might be able to work together could be infrastructure. President Trump campaigned saying he wanted to fix America's infrastructure. The Democrats have also emphasized ethics reform, but although the House may pass that, it is not clear it will go anywhere in the Senate."

Anderson Cooper: "And to our panelists, what does this mean politically?"

Republican Strategist: "You know, I think President Trump will use the Democratic House as a foil. Although you never like to lsoe the House, we have seen this before. When Presidents Clinton and Obama lost the House in their first midterms, they then blamed the House for not getting things done, and campaigned against the opposition party House. This helped them to get re-elected themselves to a second term, and I think President Trump will do the same thing."

Democratic Strategist: "Well, there is going to be a constant drip-drip from investigations into the Trump administration, and also from the Mueller investigation. This is going to lead to lots of bad news cycles for President Trump. So the idea that having a Democratic House helps Trump to get re-elected is, frankly, ludicrous."

[Florida Man for Crime]

11:10 PM EST: WHAT DOES A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE MEAN? (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 21 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 12 D --- 17 R

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[/quote]

[username5243]

Looks like you posted the same numbers as in the 11 pm update... I assume this wasn't supposed to happen?

Exciting story though!

[Wolfey123]

Unless im missing something,Why does TX-24 Flip?(Intresting story though)

[Florida Man for Crime]

Unless im missing something,Why does TX-24 Flip?(Intresting story though)

It is quite unlikely to flip in reality, but in a wave election there is often one or two districts that are thought to be safe which end up flipping. So that is one of the shocker/surprise results.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Looks like you posted the same numbers as in the 11 pm update... I assume this wasn't supposed to happen?

Exciting story though!

Oops, you are right! Here are the correct #s for 11:10.

11:10 PM EST: WHAT DOES A DEMOCRATIC HOUSE MEAN? (CONTINUED)

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Senate Results and Exit Polls:

Senate seats called: 22 D --- 7 R

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Gubernatorial Results and Exit Polls:

Governorships called: 13 D --- 18 R

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[/quote]

[Florida Man for Crime]

11:20 PM EST: DEMOCRATS TAKE HOUSE; NV-SEN CALLED, REPUBLICANS LEAD IN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA SENATE RACES


Incumbent Democratic Senators Jon Tester and Heidi Heitkamp, both currently trailing in their re-election bids

November 6, 2018, 11:20 PM EST: ELECTION NIGHT, CNN Headquarters, Washington D.C.
CNN: THE SITUATION ROOM - CNN'S ELECTION DAY HEADQUARTERS

...

Wolf Blitzer: "With the votes coming in from California, CNN now has a major breaking news alert."



Wolf blitzer: "The Democrats have won control of the United States House of Representatives. CNN has called 224 seats for the Democrats and 181 seats for the Republicans. 218 seats are needed for the majority, so Democrats have already secured the majority. And in addition, 36 seats remain un-called, so the Democratic majority could increase further."

...

John King: "Well, we've got also some news on the Senate. We have just gotten in enough votes to be able to call the Nevada Senate race for Democrat Jacky Rosen. That is a second pickup for the Democrats in the Senate, after Arizona. But the Republicans have apparently won Indiana (pending a possible recount). So on net, that is a 1 seat gain in the Senate for the Democrats so far."

John King: "However, that is where things get interesting..."

John King: "Currently the only major competitive Senate races still un-called are North Dakota and Montana. And in both of those races, at least with the votes we have in so far, the Republican challengers are narrowly leading. In Montana, Republican Matt Rosendale is ahead 49.9% to 48.1%, with 90% in. And in North Dakota, Republican Kevin Cramer is ahead 50.2% to 49.8%, with 89% in. We haven't called either of those races yet, but Republicans are leading in both of them now. Right now the Senate looks very different than the House. The House looks very good for the Democrats, but the Republicans may well end the night having picked up a seats in the Senate."

Wolf Blitzer: "And what's more, I am hearing that we have some news from Florida. Anderson?"

Anderson Cooper: "Yes, one of our panelists, 2016, has been on the phone with officials in Florida. 2016, what have you heard?"

2016: "Well, Anderson. I just got of the phone from Florida. The Elections Divisions Director says that in the Senate race because of the 0.3 margin between Nelson and Scott there will be "Manual Recount" under Florida State Law. That recount could up to 5 weeks as FL has to count 7.2 million votes manually. This race isn't over folks. The Rick Scott campaign already claiming vote counting errors in Volusia County."

Anderson Cooper: "And what does this mean?"

Republican: "Well, right now the Senate is looking potentially quite good for the Republicans, despite having lost Arizona and Nevada. Republicans have held off the worst of the so-called 'blue wave.' There is no way, short of recounts switching the results, that Republicans will not have some sort of majority in the Senate. Even if the Democrats hold both North Dakota and Montana, Republicans will still control a tied Senate with Vice President Pence as the tie breaking vote. And if Republicans win one of those, there will have been no change. Plus, it sounds like we may have something in this Florida recount, some possible vote counting errors in Volusia County, does that sound familiar?"

Democratic Strategist: "We're also looking at a recount in Indiana, I think. The margin there is .4 points, pretty close as well. Slightly less close than Florida, but if a recount could flip Florida, a recount could also flip Indiana. As for the blue wave, you might want to take a look at the House. We are at 224 Democratic seats and counting."