TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cruz is still favored, but O'Rourke has made this a closer race than I ever expected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The best thing about this poll is it has Cruz leading among whites only 61-34. If that is not too far off, that is about what Beto would need to be in serious business.

I'm skeptical though. In particular...

Too bad there is no education crosstab. Since they didn't ask education, I guess they didn't weight by education? If so they may have oversampled educated voters who are more likely to respond to polls.

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.

Yes, but this year is very likely to be a different electorate.  I think it's reasonable to assume that in 2016 lower educated voters were more motivated (relative to previous elections) than higher educated voters were, but in 2018 the reverse is probably true.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.

Yes, but this year is very likely to be a different electorate.  I think it's reasonable to assume that in 2016 lower educated voters were more motivated (relative to previous elections) than higher educated voters were, but in 2018 the reverse is probably true.

This is a reasonable expectation and I share it, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea not to poll education at all.

I would agree with that.