TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3 (user search)
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  TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX-PPP (D): Cruz +3  (Read 7876 times)
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


« on: September 20, 2018, 05:34:55 PM »

Finally a poll that isn't garbage in Texas!

This should be treated as a Dem internal - if it had a bad result for Beto, we have no way to know that it would be released. Yes, throw it in the pile, but the Quinnipiac poll with Cruz +9 is the highest quality recent poll.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2018, 05:43:32 PM »

The best thing about this poll is it has Cruz leading among whites only 61-34. If that is not too far off, that is about what Beto would need to be in serious business.

I'm skeptical though. In particular...

Too bad there is no education crosstab. Since they didn't ask education, I guess they didn't weight by education? If so they may have oversampled educated voters who are more likely to respond to polls.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2018, 05:50:47 PM »

Aren't more highly educated voters also more likely to vote, though?  So perhaps it balances out to some extent.

Not weighting by education is one of the reasons why polls and exit polls in 2016 were found after the fact to have undercounted WWC voters.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2018, 08:08:49 PM »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2018, 05:22:57 PM »

This is the Dems version of CA-SEN in 2010.

Yeah, I think you are right about that.

I think that'll end up being Tennessee.

It doesn't have to be either/or.
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