MT-Axis Research: Tie

[MT Treasurer]

Tester was never going to win in a landslide (lmao), but this definitely doesn’t feel accurate. I’d say he’s up about 3 points right now. A deceptively close race, but winning those final few percent that Rosendale needs is going to be very difficult for him unless he improves his campaign or the national environment improves for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

Still Lean D. This looks like a Republican internal.

Maybe, but if the Dems had internals that looked much different than this, they'd release them. It's probably something like 47-45 now, but the fundamentals of the state are very good for Rosendale which is why he is slightly favored.

Sure, if you ignore Missoula, Bozeman, college students, environmental activists, Native Americans, veterans, farmers and moderate/liberal women, then yeah, they’re pretty good. Rosendale could still make this a Tossup (right now I’d rate it Tilt/Lean D), but there’s no way in hell he’s favored in this race.

[MT Treasurer]

LOL, 538 says this pollster has a 6-point bias toward Republicans. Tester being up 6 seems about right.

If you think a poll is unreliable, you don’t "unskew" it, you throw it in the trash. CBS/YouGov had Tester up 2, Remington had him up 3, so it’s not as if this deviates too much from the consensus. It’s also worth remembering that these races don’t happen in a vacuum. While ND and MT are very different states, the urban-rural divide isn’t just going to impact ND, so if Heitkamp is trailing by mid-single digits right now, you’re not going to see Tester win by more than, say, 5, either.

I’d love to see a reliable poll of MT-AL though, since the House race is somewhat competitive as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Kind of dumb for the NRSC to release this, but okay. I guess it's just to counter the "Titanium Tester" narrative? Becuase this poll actually makes me feel better about his chances than I did before I saw it.

Most people didn’t expect this race to be close at all in a D wave year with Rosendale as the Republican candidate. This isn’t the only poll showing a close race, CBS/YouGov had Tester up by 2, and I’m pretty sure they’re not a R pollster. Tester is still favored obviously, but I don’t see why the NRSC is "dumb" for releasing this?