TX-Vox Populi: Tie

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Vox Populi was decent in 2014, they nailed NC Senate as I recall, it's basically Republican internal polling.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Anyways, I'm not sure why so many are dismissing this poll as "junk", it actually looks reasonable.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

They had Brown up by 4 in NH, but they also had Warner up by 4 so you can see they have a R bent, although VA ended up being a decent number, of course. This is pretty bad news for Ted Cruz.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

538 gives them a "B" with a mean bias of 0.2% in favor of republicans, 77% of races called correctly in 11 polls.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

BTW, in this poll, 54% support repealing ACA and 66% oppose getting rid of ICE, so you would think Cruz would be up by a decent margin....

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Somehow, I think that Quinnipiac poll was much more believable than this one. I’d say Cruz is probably ahead by 4-6 points right now. Not safe by any means, but still the favorite.

Looking into the numbers, this poll is a much better gauge of what I am seeing on the ground.