TX-Vox Populi: Tie
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:55:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  TX-Vox Populi: Tie
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: TX-Vox Populi: Tie  (Read 2272 times)
Senator Cris
Cris
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,613
Italy


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 20, 2018, 02:01:17 PM »
« edited: September 20, 2018, 04:11:08 PM by Senator Cris »

50/50.

508 LV, conducted September 16-18th.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2018, 02:02:30 PM »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2018, 02:04:31 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2018, 02:08:04 PM by Zaybay »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
Probably a poll where they push the undecideds. Anyway, this pollster is not well known, and I have no idea on their virtues/flaws, but overall information does point towards a low single digit race in favor of Cruz.
Logged
GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -7.83

P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2018, 02:07:18 PM »

Hot take: having literally no undecideds right now is as bad as having 25% or more undecideds.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,961
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2018, 02:09:28 PM »

lol sure whatever
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,268
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2018, 02:09:49 PM »

Wait, in addition to the lack of undecideds, they also seem to have GCB of D+2 - so Beto is *underperforming* the GCB by 2 points?

Yeah no this is trash.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2018, 02:12:51 PM »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Vox Populi is a R pollster, founded by major (former) RNC officials.

Also, Mary Cheney (daughter of Dick), was among the founders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850

It seems they are only using results among voters who offered a choice - leaving out all the undecideds.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,961
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2018, 02:15:22 PM »

Hard to take it seriously given the TX numbers.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2018, 02:15:25 PM »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
Probably a poll where they push the undecideds. Anyway, this pollster is not well known, and I have no idea on their virtues/flaws, but overall information does point towards a low single digit race in favor of Cruz.

You can (and should) push undecideds, but I highly doubt you can push all of them. Also LOL @ Beto doing worse than the GCB. Even in a loss, Beto will very likely outperform the GCB
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,350


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2018, 02:17:50 PM »

Why dont CNN and Fox poll this race
Logged
TarHeelDem
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,448
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2018, 02:29:50 PM »

NUT
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2018, 02:37:01 PM »

No
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2018, 02:44:15 PM »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Another question - apparently 200 out of 500 responses were by "mobile-app based technologies." What specifically is that, and is it opt-in? It sounds like something different from calling cell phones. Since apparently they don't weight by partisanship, my guess (though I emphasize that this is pure speculation) is that this poll could be including too many Beto supporters who are opting in, and that could be skewing the result.

Also note that this is a poll of "active voters" (i.e. registered voters), not any sort of LVs.

Interestingly, the person on the "who we are" page for the pollster worked at the RNC previously.

https://poppolling.com/who-we-are/

If this is a partisan-affiliated poll, could it be that Republicans want the race to appear close in order to make Republicans think that it is close, because they are afraid Republicans won't vote otherwise since they think Dems can't win?
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2018, 02:45:56 PM »


It is RV, not LV. Specifically it is "active voters," but that is a categorization of registered voters from the Secretary of State/local elections administrators in TX that includes basically all registered voters. Ones that are not included are ones who have not voted in forever but haven't been actually purged from the rolls.
Logged
aaroncd107
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 307


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2018, 02:46:28 PM »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Vox Populi is a R pollster, founded by major (former) RNC officials.

Also, Mary Cheney (daughter of Dick), was among the founders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850

It seems they are only using results among voters who offered a choice - leaving out all the undecideds.

Before they push undecideds, the race is 46-46
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2018, 02:48:44 PM »

Before they push undecideds, the race is 46-46

That other 8% are listed as leaners (4% lean Cruz and 4% lean Beto), not as undecideds. They just didn't include an option of being undecided in the poll at all.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2018, 02:49:43 PM »

Wait, in addition to the lack of undecideds, they also seem to have GCB of D+2 - so Beto is *underperforming* the GCB by 2 points?

Yeah no this is trash.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,756


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2018, 02:55:45 PM »

Looks like the forced undecideds to make a choice here. Great way to get genuine undecideds to stop taking the poll.

It does, however, usually push the results of the survey closer to the overall partisan lean of the state, which makes this a somewhat impressive showing for Beto.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2018, 02:58:20 PM »

Titanium R ——> Pure Tossup
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2018, 03:09:38 PM »

Vox Populi was decent in 2014, they nailed NC Senate as I recall, it's basically Republican internal polling.
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2018, 03:10:36 PM »

Anyways, I'm not sure why so many are dismissing this poll as "junk", it actually looks reasonable.
Logged
DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,926
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2018, 03:10:52 PM »

This is a polling outfit started by Mary Cheney with some others. It hasn't had the greatest results in the past if I recall correctly and is Republican leaning.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,776
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2018, 03:13:34 PM »

We have a race
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2018, 03:15:02 PM »

They had Brown up by 4 in NH, but they also had Warner up by 4 so you can see they have a R bent, although VA ended up being a decent number, of course. This is pretty bad news for Ted Cruz.
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2018, 03:17:32 PM »

538 gives them a "B" with a mean bias of 0.2% in favor of republicans, 77% of races called correctly in 11 polls.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 14 queries.