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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX-Vox Populi: Tie
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Author Topic: TX-Vox Populi: Tie  (Read 1242 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: September 20, 2018, 02:01:17 pm »
« edited: September 20, 2018, 04:11:08 pm by Senator Cris »

50/50.

508 LV, conducted September 16-18th.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2018, 02:02:30 pm »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2018, 02:04:31 pm »
« Edited: September 20, 2018, 02:08:04 pm by Zaybay »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
Probably a poll where they push the undecideds. Anyway, this pollster is not well known, and I have no idea on their virtues/flaws, but overall information does point towards a low single digit race in favor of Cruz.
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Through the fire, through the flames
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2018, 02:07:18 pm »

Hot take: having literally no undecideds right now is as bad as having 25% or more undecideds.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2018, 02:09:28 pm »

lol sure whatever
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Ses
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2018, 02:09:49 pm »

Wait, in addition to the lack of undecideds, they also seem to have GCB of D+2 - so Beto is *underperforming* the GCB by 2 points?

Yeah no this is trash.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2018, 02:12:51 pm »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Vox Populi is a R pollster, founded by major (former) RNC officials.

Also, Mary Cheney (daughter of Dick), was among the founders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850

It seems they are only using results among voters who offered a choice - leaving out all the undecideds.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2018, 02:15:22 pm »

Hard to take it seriously given the TX numbers.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #8 on: September 20, 2018, 02:15:25 pm »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?
Probably a poll where they push the undecideds. Anyway, this pollster is not well known, and I have no idea on their virtues/flaws, but overall information does point towards a low single digit race in favor of Cruz.

You can (and should) push undecideds, but I highly doubt you can push all of them. Also LOL @ Beto doing worse than the GCB. Even in a loss, Beto will very likely outperform the GCB
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2018, 02:17:50 pm »

Why dont CNN and Fox poll this race
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2018, 02:29:50 pm »

NUT
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2018, 02:37:01 pm »

No
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #12 on: September 20, 2018, 02:44:15 pm »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Another question - apparently 200 out of 500 responses were by "mobile-app based technologies." What specifically is that, and is it opt-in? It sounds like something different from calling cell phones. Since apparently they don't weight by partisanship, my guess (though I emphasize that this is pure speculation) is that this poll could be including too many Beto supporters who are opting in, and that could be skewing the result.

Also note that this is a poll of "active voters" (i.e. registered voters), not any sort of LVs.

Interestingly, the person on the "who we are" page for the pollster worked at the RNC previously.

https://poppolling.com/who-we-are/

If this is a partisan-affiliated poll, could it be that Republicans want the race to appear close in order to make Republicans think that it is close, because they are afraid Republicans won't vote otherwise since they think Dems can't win?
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #13 on: September 20, 2018, 02:45:56 pm »


It is RV, not LV. Specifically it is "active voters," but that is a categorization of registered voters from the Secretary of State/local elections administrators in TX that includes basically all registered voters. Ones that are not included are ones who have not voted in forever but haven't been actually purged from the rolls.
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aaroncd107
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« Reply #14 on: September 20, 2018, 02:46:28 pm »

1. Who is this pollster?
2. 0% undecided in September? Really?

Vox Populi is a R pollster, founded by major (former) RNC officials.

Also, Mary Cheney (daughter of Dick), was among the founders.

https://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850

It seems they are only using results among voters who offered a choice - leaving out all the undecideds.

Before they push undecideds, the race is 46-46
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #15 on: September 20, 2018, 02:48:44 pm »

Before they push undecideds, the race is 46-46

That other 8% are listed as leaners (4% lean Cruz and 4% lean Beto), not as undecideds. They just didn't include an option of being undecided in the poll at all.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #16 on: September 20, 2018, 02:49:43 pm »

Wait, in addition to the lack of undecideds, they also seem to have GCB of D+2 - so Beto is *underperforming* the GCB by 2 points?

Yeah no this is trash.
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Pollster
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« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2018, 02:55:45 pm »

Looks like the forced undecideds to make a choice here. Great way to get genuine undecideds to stop taking the poll.

It does, however, usually push the results of the survey closer to the overall partisan lean of the state, which makes this a somewhat impressive showing for Beto.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2018, 02:58:20 pm »

Titanium R > Pure Tossup
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2018, 03:09:38 pm »

Vox Populi was decent in 2014, they nailed NC Senate as I recall, it's basically Republican internal polling.
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #20 on: September 20, 2018, 03:10:36 pm »

Anyways, I'm not sure why so many are dismissing this poll as "junk", it actually looks reasonable.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2018, 03:10:52 pm »

This is a polling outfit started by Mary Cheney with some others. It hasn't had the greatest results in the past if I recall correctly and is Republican leaning.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2018, 03:13:34 pm »

We have a race
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AOC Stan
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2018, 03:15:02 pm »

They had Brown up by 4 in NH, but they also had Warner up by 4 so you can see they have a R bent, although VA ended up being a decent number, of course. This is pretty bad news for Ted Cruz.
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AOC Stan
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« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2018, 03:17:32 pm »

538 gives them a "B" with a mean bias of 0.2% in favor of republicans, 77% of races called correctly in 11 polls.
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