AZ-TargetSmart: Sinema +5
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  AZ-TargetSmart: Sinema +5
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Author Topic: AZ-TargetSmart: Sinema +5  (Read 883 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« on: September 18, 2018, 08:44:29 PM »

Sinema (D): 51%

McSally (R): 46%

Second poll in a row showing Sinema with at least 50% support.

https://progressnowarizona.org/2018/09/18/breaking-new-poll-shows-david-garcia-neck-and-neck-with-doug-ducey-in-arizona-governors-race/
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 08:45:39 PM »

Very nice!
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 08:48:47 PM »

But I thought the pink tutu ads were supposed to devastate Sinema! Seriously though, why do people put so much into ads on this site? There's 30,943,812,797 political science papers that have shown that TV ads don't have any real effect on the electorate at all.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2018, 09:04:47 PM »

This race is still Lean D, and the fundamentals really haven't changed since McSally won the primary. Sinema was never going to win by double digits, and a poll or two showign McSally ahead doesn't make this race Lean R.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2018, 09:13:59 PM »

But I thought the pink tutu ads were supposed to devastate Sinema! Seriously though, why do people put so much into ads on this site? There's 30,943,812,797 political science papers that have shown that TV ads don't have any real effect on the electorate at all.

Kavanaugh allegations put GOP at another setback, when they were coming back
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pppolitics
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2018, 09:17:24 PM »

Has anyone ever heard of "TargetSmart" before?
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Webnicz
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2018, 09:18:50 PM »

Never heard of this group before, they look like a new local pollster.

I think there comes a time when negative ads go way too far and they just dont work. McSally's current ad claims Sinema is a pedophile supporter.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2018, 09:24:04 PM »

Targetsmart has been around since 2016. They polled Florida, I believe
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Sestak
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2018, 09:31:44 PM »

Wait TargetSmart actually does polls?
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Pollster
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2018, 09:39:05 PM »

TargetSmart is a voter file vendor (the firm I was at from 2013-2016 contracted them) that does polling infrequently, though they have some great data analysts and scientists on their team so I have no doubt this is a methodologically sound poll.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2018, 09:41:45 PM »

Wait TargetSmart actually does polls?

Treat it in the same sort of way as you would the DCCC internals that are listed as being conducted by DCCC targeting team, it should be similar to what they are doing.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2018, 09:47:13 PM »

I think there comes a time when negative ads go way too far and they just dont work. McSally's current ad claims Sinema is a pedophile supporter.

The attack ads are not working about Sinema had been able to defined herself early while McSally was stuck in a three-way primary.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2018, 10:19:30 PM »

Good news for Sinema and the Democrats.  More important than the margin is the fact that polling in two red states (Tennessee and Arizona) shows the Democratic candidate at 50 percent.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: September 19, 2018, 06:44:51 PM »

Targetsmart has been around since 2016. They polled Florida, I believe

I remember that and they had Clinton leading by 7. I don't know if they should be trusted. Though Sinema leading by five doesn't sound nearly as implausible.
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