TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45

[BaldEagle1991]

I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.

I’m surprised he’s 49/49 approved in TX.

[BaldEagle1991]

My only hope right now is that Beto has the most money, and usually the candidate with the most money does win.

[BaldEagle1991]

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.

Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS

[BaldEagle1991]

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.

As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

[BaldEagle1991]

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.

Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS

Do you live in Longview or Beaumont or something? If so, I could see why you feel that way, but it is a stunningly ignorant statement otherwise.

Houston area is where I'm at. However I went to college in East Texas, where it feels more like Alabama. 

As for my previous statement, we have a Attorney General candidate with criminal corruption charges and he's likely to win. If he were in any other state he'd be screwed. Which kind of brings to the idea that it will take a lot for some Republican to fall here.

[BaldEagle1991]

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?

I think her being LGBT has hurt her a little bit.

[BaldEagle1991]

Cruz is a Latino himself and one of the Castro bros along with Andrew White could of made this race competitive, but they felt running against popular Abbott was too much. Tilt GOP.

No one in my honest opinion could beat Abbott, at one point his approval rating was 89%