TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (user search)
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  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Will Cruz win?
#1
Cruz will win
 
#2
Cruz will lose
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45  (Read 7028 times)
The Mikado
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« on: September 18, 2018, 01:05:47 PM »

I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 08:15:30 PM »

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.


Actually TX is a bigger version of AL/MS

Do you live in Longview or Beaumont or something? If so, I could see why you feel that way, but it is a stunningly ignorant statement otherwise.
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