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  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Will Cruz win?
#1
Cruz will win
 
#2
Cruz will lose
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45  (Read 3608 times)
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,824
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


« on: September 18, 2018, 11:58:59 am »

I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.
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Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,824
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 12:04:06 pm »

I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.

 Roll Eyes

Zaybay is the Trump of poll commentators.  "I can't say for sure if this poll is using the 2014 LV screen; but if it is, and I've heard from very fine people that that might be the case, then that's just a HUGE mistake.  GARBAGE POLLS!"

geez, I was just posing a question. Its self-identified, BTW, so the result is most likely correct.

Edit: Also, Im pretty sure asking the voters who voted in 2014 as a screen is a bad idea in a Democratic wave year.
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Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,824
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50


« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 12:07:46 pm »

This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

I suppose it could be an outlier.

It is, however, the only poll we have taken after labor day (which we know a lot of users around here value more than August polls). There's also the fact that far more voters are familiar with O'Rourke now and he still hasn't gotten more than 45% in a poll. So, for all we know, these could be the new dynamics of the race.

I agree with Yeah. This is one of, maybe the only, likely voter poll we have of the race, so this one has much more weight to it than the registered voter polls we have gotten.
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