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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Will Cruz win?
#1
Cruz will win
 
#2
Cruz will lose
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45  (Read 3610 times)
Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« on: September 18, 2018, 11:51:08 am »
« edited: September 18, 2018, 12:16:09 pm by Cruz Will Win 👁 »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2018, 11:53:52 am »

I am disappointed because personally I would like Beto to win, but on the other hand LMAO at all those who were seriously thinking Beto can win.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #2 on: September 18, 2018, 12:06:11 pm »

The one point for hope for Beto/Dems in this poll is that it has virtually no undecideds. There are 3rd party candidates on the ballot, and those will in reality get at least some votes. Also, by election day the undecideds could possibly break somewhat differently than ones who were apparently pushed in this poll and chose Cruz.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #3 on: September 18, 2018, 12:09:37 pm »

I'm going to put this in the "lean trash, closer to likely trash than tossup" column of polls. because it shows a result i don't like

I doubt that like, literally every poll from the past month has been heavily overestimating Beto.

The difference between this and other polls is primarily that there are many fewer undecideds. Beto is at 45% in this, it is very hard (pretty much unprecedented in recent history except for 1 or 2 downballot races) for a Dem to get anything more than that in TX.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #4 on: September 18, 2018, 01:32:31 pm »

I'm sticking with my prediction that Cruz wins by somewhere between 4 and 6. Cruz +9 makes me feel like their Likely Voter model is way too strict, especially since it indicates Trump's overall approval in TX is 49/49, which is way better than Trump's approval in any other Texas poll.

Historically, having a too loose LV screen has been much more of a danger in TX polls than having too tight of one. At least in the past, TX has.

Even in Presidential years, turnout is low, and since the TX Dem base includes lots of non-whites, turnout tends to get hurt more than elsewhere in midterms.

Could turnout increase? Yes, and I expect that it will, particularly when compared to 2014. But it is still a question of how much of an increase is really plausible.

Even if turnout increases in TX, overall it will still surely be lower than elsewhere, and not representative of registered voters, much less representative of the population as a whole.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2018, 01:59:52 pm »

Beto was never going to win this. These deep southern states with extreme racial polarization are almost impossible to move. Beto getting 46% would be a great achievement for the party. TN is definitely more likely to flip, though the state is technically much redder, because it has more whites with at least a potential to vote Dem, while they are stuck at around 27-29% in TX. All these racially polarized southern states are like this, which is why Roy Moore only lost by 2% in AL.

While clearly "Beto was never going to win this," TX is not in the same category as MS/AL.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2018, 03:59:40 pm »

I think O'Rourke still has a chance to win because the Cruz-related scandal in which his campaign has sent has sent fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons has arrived just in time to possibly undermine Cruz.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

lolno

Not a single voter will change their vote based on that.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2018, 05:16:15 pm »

Anyone who previously said O'Rourke was likely to win or who is now saying he has no chance to win should switch to decaf.

What if one is now saying O'Rourke has no chance to win but was also previously saying that he had no chance to win?
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2018, 11:02:17 am »

Does it seem likely that Valdez (1st Latina major party nominee for Governor in Texas) isn't ahead of Abbott among Hispanic voters (per the same poll.. which has Abbott leading among Hispanic voters 49-45)?

I think her being LGBT has hurt her a little bit.

The Hispanic crosstab is almost certainly junky - I doubt also that Cruz is doing as well as he is in this poll with Hispanics. Probably this relates to the fact that Quinnipiac is not particularly experienced with polling TX.

As for her being LGBT, most voters barely know who she is, if they have even heard of her at all. So I wouldn't think it hurts her that much. She did also easily win all the Hispanic areas in the primary by substantial margins.
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