TX Quinnipiac: Cruz leads Beto by 9, 54-45

[Skye]

Looks like TX isn't turning blue.

[Skye]

I wonder how they choose the likely voter screen, for if its based on 2014/2016, like Marquette, then this poll is garbage. I would hope its done by personal responses, and voting in 2016.

 

[Skye]

This feels like a realistic result; albeit disappointing.  One would expect a poll like this if this is a narrow cruz win by 4/5 points to balance out the Cruz+1/2/3 polls.

Regardless, Atlas will now treat this result as the new standard and act as if the dynamics of the race have changed.  Until we get a Cruz+2 poll by literally any pollster at which point everyone will act like it's a horse-race again.

I suppose it could be an outlier.

It is, however, the only poll we have taken after labor day (which we know a lot of users around here value more than August polls). There's also the fact that far more voters are familiar with O'Rourke now and he still hasn't gotten more than 45% in a poll. So, for all we know, these could be the new dynamics of the race.

[Skye]

Beto's campaign has built a network that TX Dems can use in the future. That's the most important thing.

I know precinct captains from the GA-06 special election already in place to mobilize for Stacey Abrams. In races like this, just rebuilding party infrastructure can be as important as a win.

Texas is far more Republican compared to Georgia though

While Alabama, where Democrat Doug Jones won last year, is even far more Republican than Texas is.

As a Texan I even have to admit that if Roy Moore was a Texan he'd be elected to the Senate even with the pedophilia accusations.

I highly, highly doubt that. If Roy Moore couldn't win a Trump +28 state that is notoriously inelastic, he would never win a Trump +9 state.

TX also qualifies as "notoriously inelastic".

I'd concede, however, that Moore probably would have lost there too.