I still can't get over how idiots like Steve Schale and Michael McDonald projected a 4-5 point Clinton win by just looking at early voting numbers from six counties and assuming there would be negligible swings everywhere else in the state
I've noticed over the years a lot of analysts only tend to look at how the biggest 3 or 4 counties are behaving and ignore everything else, unfortunately since the biggest counties in most states tend to be more democratic then the state as a whole, this leads to skewed expectations. One issue a lot of analysts don't seem to realise is in most states the big 3 or 4 democratic counties often still only account for around 30 or 35% of the vote, meaning if Republicans are gaining everywhere else then overall Republicans will find it easier to get a swing as they are gaining in counties with 60 or 65% of the states population whereas Democrats are gaining in only say 35% of the population.
