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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  How did Trump win Florida (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Trump win Florida  (Read 6314 times)
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Posts: 587
Australia


« on: December 03, 2018, 08:06:09 am »

I still can't get over how idiots like Steve Schale and Michael McDonald projected a 4-5 point Clinton win by just looking at early voting numbers from six counties and assuming there would be negligible swings everywhere else in the state

I've noticed over the years a lot of analysts only tend to look at how the biggest 3 or 4 counties are behaving and ignore everything else, unfortunately since the biggest counties in most states tend to be more democratic then the state as a whole, this leads to skewed expectations. One issue a lot of analysts don't seem to realise is in most states the big 3 or 4 democratic counties often still only account for around 30 or 35% of the vote, meaning if Republicans are gaining everywhere else then overall Republicans will find it easier to get a swing as they are gaining in counties with 60 or 65% of the states population whereas Democrats are gaining in only say 35% of the population.
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