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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  How did Trump win Florida (search mode)
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Author Topic: How did Trump win Florida  (Read 6313 times)
RINO Tom
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Posts: 13,993
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« on: December 03, 2018, 10:31:46 am »

At a very distant glance, it appears there were a few states (Ohio and Florida, namely) where Trump made his "typical" gains with Whites without a college degree (won't indulge the idea of calling this entire group "working class") while also holding on to quite a bit of suburban support.  In other words, he made his usual gains for a Republican vs. Clinton while stopping a lot of the bleeding that we saw in other places with suburban voters.
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RINO Tom
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*****
Posts: 13,993
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2018, 02:07:37 pm »

At a very distant glance, it appears there were a few states (Ohio and Florida, namely) where Trump made his "typical" gains with Whites without a college degree (won't indulge the idea of calling this entire group "working class") while also holding on to quite a bit of suburban support.  In other words, he made his usual gains for a Republican vs. Clinton while stopping a lot of the bleeding that we saw in other places with suburban voters.

White "working-class" voters gave Trump approximately two-thirds of their votes, if I am not mistaken. And it cannot be denied that his margins and turnout among those voters helped him in Ohio and Florida. Arguably, if they had not turned out in the Florida Panhandle, he would have lost the state to Clinton.

I know you're kind of on a Realignment 2016/2018 roll here, but your response makes literally zero sense in response to what I wrote.  It would be normal to expect Trump to, yes, match his usual gains with "WWC" voters in Florida; it would NOT be normal to expect him to match Romney's suburban support and support among college graduates ... Trump won 49% of college grads to Clinton's 46% in Florida (and, when you take out postgrads - a group that was strongly Democratic before Trump - he won 54%-42%), and he won 62% of White college grads, a negligible difference from his support among "WWC" voters in Florida.

Trump won Florida because he both made his expected gains - among "WWC" voters and rural voters - that he made everywhere else and because he ALSO didn't have anywhere near his usual losses we saw in other places - among suburbanites and White college grads.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,993
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2019, 01:25:12 pm »

At a very distant glance, it appears there were a few states (Ohio and Florida, namely) where Trump made his "typical" gains with Whites without a college degree (won't indulge the idea of calling this entire group "working class") while also holding on to quite a bit of suburban support.  In other words, he made his usual gains for a Republican vs. Clinton while stopping a lot of the bleeding that we saw in other places with suburban voters.

White "working-class" voters gave Trump approximately two-thirds of their votes, if I am not mistaken. And it cannot be denied that his margins and turnout among those voters helped him in Ohio and Florida. Arguably, if they had not turned out in the Florida Panhandle, he would have lost the state to Clinton.

As I said earlier in this thread, it was not the panhandle where Trump made most of his gains; it was in the suburban/exurban areas near Orlando/Tampa where it happened. This area has many people who formerly resided in the Midwest, and their voting patterns matched closely.

Are you saying that the Panhandle was insignificant?

The Panhandle has 1,499,544 (7.27%) of Florida's total population, so kind of.  It's like people chalking Texas' Republican lean up to rural areas, when rural voters in the Florida exit poll accounted for only 8% of all voters.
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