AZ- CNN: Sinema +7

[cvparty]

Woah. Sinema is winning Maricopa County 51-39%

That is precisely the reason why I don't entirely trust this Poll. SSRS is a totally unknown quantity here...completely new to Statewide Polling.

Sinema is not ahead in Maricopa County by 11 Points. That is absolutely ludicrous from CNN/SSRS.

Consider this:
The Democrats are trying to pull off a Doug Jones type of victory here. Arizona hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988 when Dennis DeConcini won Re-Election for the last time.

If Sinema gets elected it's not because of how she stands on policies but because she is pretty.

Maybe Republicans should play the sexsism card a bit.

i gasped

[morgieb]

Wow, Sinema's numbers are really collapsing.

The last few poll results have been Sinema +4, Sinema +3, McSally +1, McSally +3 in that order. If anything, she's consolidating her numbers.

Whooooooooooooooooooooooooooshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Webnicz]

expect a poll to be released soon showing Mcsally ahead. sounds like they are preforming an internal.

https://twitter.com/joeferguson/status/1041427359105081344

[Progressive Pessimist]

expect a poll to be released soon showing Mcsally ahead. sounds like they are preforming an internal.

https://twitter.com/joeferguson/status/1041427359105081344

I look forward to the panic.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Arizona Senator by SSRS on 2018-09-15

Summary: D: 50%, R: 43%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[NOVA Green]

Regardless of the experience of this polling firm when it comes to Arizona, they are sub-contracted to CNN, so I would imagine they would be held to the methodological standards expected by a major "brand name" customer...

1.) First thing that strikes me is that the gap remains +7 Sinema in both the RV and LV models....

Normally one might expect there to be a bit of a divergence in these numbers, especially in a State like Arizona, where Latino Turnout tends to be significantly lower in Midterm elections than even in Presidential Year elections. This is obviously a good sign for Sinema.

2.) If we look at the "mind made up numbers vs might change mind", again we see that there are significantly more McSally leaning voters that might change mind versus Sinema leaning voters in both the RV and LV models.

3.) Trump Approve / Disapprove numbers would appear to be a bit skewed and different from what we might expect, especially among likely voters....

Now, it could be that there is a bit of an "enthusiasm gap" there, and a good chunk of the "no opinion" voters polled, are those that although they aren't approving of Trump's performance, still tend to maybe lean towards "somewhat approve", but aren't crazy about all of the extra shenanigans of Trump is well known for.

4.) Those 65+ numbers for Sinema are devastating (54-42 D). This is obviously what is skewing the LV numbers....

Additionally the 45+ numbers run (50-45 D).....

We have seen in various other polls, not to mention recent elections, Senior Voters starting to swing hard against Trump, especially as a result of Health Care policies. This is one of the major reasons for dramatically increased support for the Affordable Care Act in National Polls.

I would not discount the impact that this is having in the AZ US-SEN race, and the death of Senator McCain might well have increased the salience of this issue within Arizona in recent weeks.

5.) As I have posted on other threads regarding Arizona, Maricopa County really is ground zero of any hypothetical Democratic Statewide win within the State.

The (54-40 D) numbers are absolutely devastating for McSally, and even if we were to normalize that by MOE for the subsample, a Democratic win in Maricopa likely makes it virtually impossible for a Republican victory, considering traditional numbers even in off-year elections for Non-Maricopa County parts of the State.

6.) There is no potential silver lining for McSally in this poll whatsoever, in a state with a huge number of registered Anglo Independents that frequently vote Republican, when looking at numbers from Household Income, to Age, to region of Arizona....

We will see what the next poll brings, but a huge chunk of the likely voters have made up their minds on this election, and those that are still swingy tend to be swingy in favor of Sinema....