MO: YouGov/CBS - Tied

[Adam Griffin]

I've been saying for a long time that I think MO is actually the most vulnerable Democratic seat, namely because of what I consider to be convergent political factors. Simply put, all of the other red state Democrats (we're excluding FL in this) are on the favorable side of one or more lines that give those candidates an advantage.

First is "the white line". You'll notice that all of the competitive red state Democrats basically follow a trajectory/are north of a line going from WV to MT. North of this line are areas where whites tend to be far more Democratic and/or swingy (especially in rural areas) and where they are - in most of these states - very reliant on white voters who are willing to split their tickets. In many ways, racial polarization is much weaker north of this line due to the relative lack of minority populations. This obviously provides red state Democrats some advantages when compared to other candidates' past performances in their states.

Then there's also the Great Plains and the Rust Belt, two regions which I think deserve their own delineations and also generally tend to be more supportive of Democrats from their own areas (and thus provide red state Democrats some advantages).

Notice how there's only 1 red state Democrat on the wrong end of all 3 lines: