MS Special-McDaniel Internal/A2P: McDaniel +8 in jungle primary
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  MS Special-McDaniel Internal/A2P: McDaniel +8 in jungle primary
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Author Topic: MS Special-McDaniel Internal/A2P: McDaniel +8 in jungle primary  (Read 2495 times)
Young Conservative
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« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2018, 06:30:10 AM »

lol k
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Continential
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« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2018, 10:49:00 AM »

Most Likely in a White Town
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2018, 10:53:29 AM »

The literal fake poll I made was more plausible than this.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2018, 04:03:16 PM »

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

He’s definitely not the "best fit" for the state or whatever, but he doesn’t have to be in order to win a low turnout runoff where Republicans stay home and Democrats/black voters are energized in a state where Dems already have a high floor. Meanwhile, there’s no indication whatsoever that WV is even semi-competitive at this point.
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Xing
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« Reply #29 on: September 23, 2018, 04:05:04 PM »

Espy is a long shot, but I can't imagine him not making the run-off at least, lol.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #30 on: September 23, 2018, 04:27:05 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2018, 04:31:06 PM by Cory Booker »

Espy hasnt been visible as of late, this is Leaning R. It's hard for a black man to be visible in MS running statewide, not locally, unlike GA or FL, where media is allowing Abrams and Gillum visibility
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #31 on: September 23, 2018, 04:36:27 PM »

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

He’s definitely not the "best fit" for the state or whatever, but he doesn’t have to be in order to win a low turnout runoff where Republicans stay home and Democrats/black voters are energized in a state where Dems already have a high floor. Meanwhile, there’s no indication whatsoever that WV is even semi-competitive at this point.

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.
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Holmes
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« Reply #32 on: September 23, 2018, 04:42:37 PM »

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

He’s definitely not the "best fit" for the state or whatever, but he doesn’t have to be in order to win a low turnout runoff where Republicans stay home and Democrats/black voters are energized in a state where Dems already have a high floor. Meanwhile, there’s no indication whatsoever that WV is even semi-competitive at this point.

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

Last public poll had Manchin up 12.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #33 on: September 23, 2018, 04:46:31 PM »

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

He’s definitely not the "best fit" for the state or whatever, but he doesn’t have to be in order to win a low turnout runoff where Republicans stay home and Democrats/black voters are energized in a state where Dems already have a high floor. Meanwhile, there’s no indication whatsoever that WV is even semi-competitive at this point.

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

Last public poll had Manchin up 12.

And only at 45%, and it was like memerson.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #34 on: September 23, 2018, 04:47:16 PM »

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

No recent poll has shown him within striking distance, and I could definitely see this staying D even if Republicans massively outperform expectations (it’s even less likely to flip than MT at this point, tbh). Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate, Manchin already won against a weak opponent in a R wave year, WV elected a Democratic governor while Trump was carrying the state by 42 points, the midterm electorate in a state like WV is generally more Democratic-leaning, etc. etc.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #35 on: September 23, 2018, 04:50:01 PM »

Obvious junk, but I definitely think Espy is more likely to win than someone like Patrick Morrisey. Toss-up.

Stop.

He’s definitely not the "best fit" for the state or whatever, but he doesn’t have to be in order to win a low turnout runoff where Republicans stay home and Democrats/black voters are energized in a state where Dems already have a high floor. Meanwhile, there’s no indication whatsoever that WV is even semi-competitive at this point.

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

Last public poll had Manchin up 12.

The last public poll was Emerson, so...

The last remotely acceptable ones had him up 6-8.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #36 on: September 23, 2018, 05:02:40 PM »

Morrisey is well within striking distance, and if I was him, I'd be feeling just fine right now.

No recent poll has shown him within striking distance, and I could definitely see this staying D even if Republicans massively outperform expectations (it’s even less likely to flip than MT at this point, tbh). Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate, Manchin already won against a weak opponent in a R wave year, WV elected a Democratic governor while Trump was carrying the state by 42 points, the midterm electorate in a state like WV is generally more Democratic-leaning, etc. etc.

Morrisey is not Raese tier. He is not great, but at least he holds statewide elected office and is not a perennial loser. That was 2010, WV has gotten A LOT redder since then, and WV is immune to this blue wave. The main reason Ojeda and Manchin are competetive is candidate quality, not some blue wave thing. This race is also a lot more nationalized than the Perdue and Justice wins, and Trump is going to continue to be there to drag Manchin down.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #37 on: September 23, 2018, 05:34:58 PM »

Since we're posting fake polls, I decided to make one of my own! I just came up with what I feel are the appropriate top lines and then tried to guess the crosstabs by party - and lo and behold, I was spot on with Hyde-Smith and Epsy (and only 4 off with McDaniel), which means I'm definitely a better pollster than "whoever" McDaniel's team used. Enjoy!

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IceSpear
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« Reply #38 on: September 23, 2018, 05:43:46 PM »

Since we're posting fake polls, I decided to make one of my own! I just came up with what I feel are the appropriate top lines and then tried to guess the crosstabs by party - and lo and behold, I was spot on with Hyde-Smith and Epsy (and only 4 off with McDaniel), which means I'm definitely a better pollster than "whoever" McDaniel's team used. Enjoy!

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Your "poll" is definitely much better than theirs. At least you have crosstabs! Also it "looks about right", which is an essential factor for poll quality. Wink
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: September 23, 2018, 06:29:45 PM »

Espy is in MS not GA, TN, FL or TX where upsets can happen, but we'll see.
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Cold War Liberal
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« Reply #40 on: September 23, 2018, 09:16:45 PM »

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Use Your Illusion
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« Reply #41 on: September 24, 2018, 12:52:02 AM »

We're talking Diamondillium levels of R here
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #42 on: September 24, 2018, 06:28:10 AM »

Worst 'poll' of the cycle.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #43 on: September 24, 2018, 06:57:49 AM »


ESPY has no money for ads
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Continential
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« Reply #44 on: September 24, 2018, 07:05:44 AM »

McDaniel is a Blanche Lincoln Tier Candidate
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #45 on: September 24, 2018, 07:27:25 AM »

This ruby red MS, McDaniel isn't gonna get Blanched
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #46 on: September 24, 2018, 07:38:36 AM »

The methodology literally says they aren't factoring in turnout predictions, just using the state registered voters as a whole, lol
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