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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO: YouGov/CBS - Tied
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Author Topic: MO: YouGov/CBS - Tied  (Read 1782 times)
Zaybay
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« on: September 16, 2018, 10:44:06 am »

An RV poll done by YouGov found:

45% - McCaskill

45% - Hawley

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/e6xjamn6e9/cbs_20180916_MO_finalforrelease.pdf
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2018, 11:14:24 am »

Yeah tossup.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2018, 11:16:42 am »

How many ties have there been for this race?
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2018, 11:24:15 am »

Trump approval is 50-50

42% believe Democrats have put the interests of the working class over corporations, 33% say vice versa. 53% believe the GOP has put the interest of large corporations over the working class, 17% say vice versa.
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Daines' Bipartisan Bills™
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2018, 11:27:47 am »

Here’s why this means the race is Likely D/R:
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2018, 11:33:45 am »

Here’s why this means the race is Likely D/R:

Agreed. It will likely go either D or R. 3rd parties do not stand a chance!
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АndriуValeriovich
andjey
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2018, 12:09:57 pm »

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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2018, 03:15:28 pm »

I think this will be the closest Democratic hold of the night, with a 1.5% margin or so.
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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
Antonio V
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2018, 03:57:30 pm »

How many ties have there been for this race?

Yeah it's starting to get suspicious. Even if the race is truly tied, you should see candidates trade leads more often (the way Donnelly and Braun are doing, for example), just due to sampling variance.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2018, 04:20:19 pm »

This is YouGov, which tens to be a bit more R-leaning. Kind of shocking to see Trump's approval = in multiple MO polls, where he won by 20 points.
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jimmie
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2018, 05:35:28 pm »

Likely R to Likely D to Toss up.


Still think at the end Hawley and galloway both win
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2018, 05:59:35 pm »

This is YouGov, which tens to be a bit more R-leaning. Kind of shocking to see Trump's approval = in multiple MO polls, where he won by 20 points.

538 rates You Gov as a B pollster with a bias of D+.3.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2018, 06:15:56 pm »

This will go down to wire.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2018, 03:24:15 pm »

Tilt D. Very important for the Dems to invest and bring this one home.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2018, 06:45:52 pm »

The fact that quite a few democrats incumbents are so close tells me that the blue wave is having a little bit of trouble forming. This latest attack on half of our population could kill it all together.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2018, 06:51:34 pm »

It's a blue Gubernatorial map MI, WI, PA v red Senate map and Dems losing 1 red Inc in IN, ND or MO and winning AZ, TN, MSb and NV still allows them control and blue Gov map should allow Dems to win House😁
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Pack the Court & Lock Him Up
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2018, 04:03:31 am »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 04:11:12 am by Fmr. Pres. Griff »

I've been saying for a long time that I think MO is actually the most vulnerable Democratic seat, namely because of what I consider to be convergent political factors. Simply put, all of the other red state Democrats (we're excluding FL in this) are on the favorable side of one or more lines that give those candidates an advantage.

First is "the white line". You'll notice that all of the competitive red state Democrats basically follow a trajectory/are north of a line going from WV to MT. North of this line are areas where whites tend to be far more Democratic and/or swingy (especially in rural areas) and where they are - in most of these states - very reliant on white voters who are willing to split their tickets. In many ways, racial polarization is much weaker north of this line due to the relative lack of minority populations. This obviously provides red state Democrats some advantages when compared to other candidates' past performances in their states.

Then there's also the Great Plains and the Rust Belt, two regions which I think deserve their own delineations and also generally tend to be more supportive of Democrats from their own areas (and thus provide red state Democrats some advantages).

Notice how there's only 1 red state Democrat on the wrong end of all 3 lines:

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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2018, 04:18:22 am »

I've been saying for a long time that I think MO is actually the most vulnerable Democratic seat, namely because of what I consider to be convergent political factors.

Heitkamp may be slightly more vulnerable but I do agree with you about McCaskill overall.

It is funny that last year everyone was saying she was DOA and will be blanched and I got ridiculed for calling a toss up.

This year most people have it as Lean or likely D (wtf) and I am still getting ridiculed for having it a toss up. For it to be "Lean D" Greitens would have had to stay in.

I still think when the dust settles that McCaskill (D) will lose and Galloway (D) will win.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2018, 01:20:35 am »

It seems there's another round coming out today, according to Politico, but not sure which states.
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Councilor CookieDamage (L-NJ)
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2018, 12:57:36 am »

The fact that quite a few democrats incumbents are so close tells me that the blue wave is having a little bit of trouble forming. This latest attack on half of our population could kill it all together.

#HotTake
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2018, 01:40:12 am »

Yeah, MO along with MT and FL will go down to wire as well as TN
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