FL-Rasmussen: Gillum +6

[Use Your Illusion]

This wasn't even the survey I took either. God this is nice, seriously. For the first time in many years I have faith in my fellow Floridians. Bring it home Gillum. You too Nelson.

Please, give me a reason to not be a reluctant Democrat

[Beet]

Gillum will pull it off, absent a Bradley effect.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I have a hard time believing whites are evenly split while DeSantis is up double digits with hispanics. And it seems Rass is hellbent on their "black exodus" from the Dems narrative as they're showing only 75% of the AA community going for Gillum. The actual number will be around 94-96% on election day. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I have a hard time believing whites are evenly split while DeSantis is up double digits with hispanics. And it seems Rass is hellbent on their "black exodus" from the Dems narrative as they're showing only 75% of the AA community going for Gillum. The actual number will be around 94-96% on election day. 

It's odd almost every governor poll we got so far has DeSantis leading with Hispanics and whites being close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nice.

[Suburbia]

Still a tossup.

Even if Gillum wins and becomes Florida's first black governor, white millionaires and billionaires won't put up for a income tax (FL has no income tax). He may be a one-term governor, we'll see.

There is a reason Midwesterners and Northeasterners move to states like FL, GA, NC, TX. They don't want their taxes to be heavily raised.

[Podgy the Bear]

That’s what the R’s get for nominating an idiot.

I know several Putnam supporters who agree with this sentiment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is Florida actually going to redeem itself? Hopefully this won't be marred by Scott winning simultaneously winning the Senate election.

[IceSpear]

Still a tossup.

Even if Gillum wins and becomes Florida's first black governor, white millionaires and billionaires won't put up for a income tax (FL has no income tax). He may be a one-term governor, we'll see.

There is a reason Midwesterners and Northeasterners move to states like FL, GA, NC, TX. They don't want their taxes to be heavily raised.

Actually, the white Sun Belt Billionaire Trophy Wives will be the ones fueling Gillum's victory if he wins, so surely they will put up.

[Technocracy Timmy]

There is a reason Midwesterners and Northeasterners move to states like FL, GA, NC, TX. They don't want their taxes to be heavily raised.

They move to the sunbelt because it’s better weather, better food, cheaper property, cheaper COL, and more ethnic women. Taxes affecting millionaires would be a much lower reason on the list.

[Donerail]

white millionaires and billionaires won't put up for a income tax

a sizable demographic on election day

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With GILLUM as Gov, FL in a way, with ethnic demographic changes is turning like CA😀

[morgieb]

See FDP, this is what happens when you nominate someone who gives people a reason to vote for them.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I can't wait to gloat about Governor DeSantis in this thread come January.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I can't wait to gloat about Governor DeSantis in this thread come January.

I can't wait to gloat about how wrong you were!

[NOVA Green]

At this point there is very little question in my mind, considering the post Primary and post Labor Day Polls indicating Gillum has a bit of a lead from multiple polling organizations....

As I posited elsewhere, it appears that Anglo Seniors in Florida are drifting towards Gillum for multiple reasons (Health Care and Social Security being major items of concern).

It is also helpful to consider the fact, that there are a considerable number of Anglo Retiree Floridians, that comes from the MidWest, that tend to vote a bit differently than Anglo retirees from the NorthEast.

What I suspect is that we are starting to see a bit of erosion among Floridian Anglo retirees from Midwest States, combined with the obvious factor of NE US Anglo Retiree Floridians, not only having higher general support for Democratic candidates, but additionally consist of a larger chunk of the FL retiree vote compared to Midwest retirees.

Larger number and smaller swings = greater raw vote, lower number and bigger swings starts to hit margins significantly as well....

BOTH numbers start to hit critical mass ?

[cvparty]

yeet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news for GILLUM

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Moving from Tilt to Lean D.

DeSantis still needs time to figure out his stances less than 60 days from the election. All of that sniffing of Trump's ass but no real policy positions. People really let Trump's scant victory against an opponent equally as unpopular as him go to their heads.

Like Nazism without Hitler, Trumpism is DOA without Trump himself.

[I’m not Stu]

Great numbers, especially for a poll that leans conservative.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I have a hard time believing whites are evenly split while DeSantis is up double digits with hispanics. And it seems Rass is hellbent on their "black exodus" from the Dems narrative as they're showing only 75% of the AA community going for Gillum. The actual number will be around 94-96% on election day. 

Florida’s Latino community is heavily Cuban and non-whites tend to be more socially conservative than Anglos. Look at the race breakdown for medical marijuana and weed legalization.
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Governor_September6_R78S.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama won FL 2x's already, FL needs a progressive again

[Badger]

I have a hard time believing whites are evenly split while DeSantis is up double digits with hispanics. And it seems Rass is hellbent on their "black exodus" from the Dems narrative as they're showing only 75% of the AA community going for Gillum. The actual number will be around 94-96% on election day. 

It's odd almost every governor poll we got so far has DeSantis leading with Hispanics and whites being close.

Is it me or after Obama effectively split both the Cuban, and fwiw the Vietnamese, vote in Florida and California respectively, at least Cubans have shifted back to being Republican friendly again? This even though younger Cubans are not nearly as Republican as their elders?

At any rate, Cuban still make up be strong Lion Share of Florida's Hispanic population, and they still favor Republicans, so I'm not particularly surprised DeSantis is leading there. Standard caveat regarding sub sample Mo E of course.

[Beet]

Why is it a surprise? I keep saying if the Democrats want to appeal to Hispanics, they have to start nominating Hispanics. Republicans consistently nominate Hispanics for statewide races, but the Democrats rarely if ever do. There is only one half-Hispanic in their Congressional delegation. Republicans have three. Bizarre for a party that always takes the Hispanic vote for granted.

That being said, I expect Gillum will pull this off -- absent any wild cards with the FBI --, based on a combination of a number of factors that have nothing to do with ethnicity, such as the fact that the GOP has held the Florida governorship for so long, the national environment, and his qualities as a candidate. However, if he does, his win won't be as big as it could have been. The Florida Democrats have basically been given a freebie this year -- when you're shut out of power for 20 years, that tends to happen. It's not a testament to the competence of the Party.

[Badger]

Why is it a surprise? I keep saying if the Democrats want to appeal to Hispanics, they have to start nominating Hispanics. Republicans consistently nominate Hispanics for statewide races, but the Democrats rarely if ever do. There is only one half-Hispanic in their Congressional delegation. Republicans have three. Bizarre for a party that always takes the Hispanic vote for granted.

That being said, I expect Gillum will pull this off -- absent any wild cards with the FBI --, based on a combination of a number of factors that have nothing to do with ethnicity, such as the fact that the GOP has held the Florida governorship for so long, the national environment, and his qualities as a candidate. However, if he does, his win won't be as big as it could have been. The Florida Democrats have basically been given a freebie this year -- when you're shut out of power for 20 years, that tends to happen. It's not a testament to the competence of the Party.

Again, Cubans. Not Hispanic voters in general, Cubans. Very very different voting habits as I'm sure you are aware. Not only do Florida Democrats not take the Hispanic vote for granted, it has long been a fundamental part of the Florida Republican parties electoral coalition in the last few decades. Until that is, one properly starts to distinguish between one Cuban Hispanic voters and Cuban Hispanic voters.

At any rate, you are correct at the Florida Democratic party who would do well to one more Cubans and other Hispanics. The problem is growing strong enough a Hispanic bench for Statewide office.