Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Person Man]

I voted today.

[Person Man]

oh please god no

After 2016 I don't want to hear a f**king word about early voting ever again (except if it's about Nevada and from Jon Ralston, I guess).

[Person Man]

This thread was a mistake.

It's still useful. The question is now is trying to predict things by early voting full or sh**t or are Democrats really that toxic of a brand?

[Person Man]

@Antonio Whatever the data says right now, I still think it's worth saying that there is no point getting worked up about this. Just let early voting run its course and then go over the data as a whole. I can only really speak for myself, but I remember getting excited about early voting in 2016, and it was disappointing in the end (albeit not necessarily proportionately disappointing across the country).

We're quite possibly looking at the highest turnout midterm in ~100 years. That adds a level of uncertainty to the predictions game, imo. There is also evidence from the high-turnout special elections we had that not all Republicans can be expected to vote the same way (they might, but there is at least some reason to believe in higher-than-normal splits). So, when in doubt, I try to take the GCB into account as well. The fact that it is constantly hovering around D+7 - 10 and has been for over 1.5 years should count for something. And if that is close to the final result, it would be hard to see how that doesn't affect Nevada somehow.

If we blow it this time, we just need to burn the whole thing down and start over.

[Person Man]

Democrats gained almost another point in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058071032664215552

Still not good, given that Dems ended early voting with a 4-5 point deficit behind Republicans.  Democrats are going to have to turn out like crazy today and tomorrow to have a chance.

Again, you don't know how people are voting. Or how Indies are voting.

This is very much true. I saw a article somewhere saying that 7% of Republicans support Sinema, compared to 4% of Democrats who are backing McSally. And that Sinema is leading among independents something like 58-32%. Such numbers point to a narrow (~2-4 pt.) Sinema victory.

So it's not that Democrats are staying home. Its whether moderate/libertarian Republicans  come home or Independents get cold feet.

[Person Man]

Ralston reports DEM lead in Nevada was 100 votes short of 38,000 going into today.

So that means?

[Person Man]

So how would we characterize the major Senatorial races and Gubernatorial races based on the end of EV?