Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/hdl_perspective/status/1058119933438103552

Is there a universe in which Latino turnout surges but they don't lean heavily D? Seems like if they are energized, it's more likely than not that they're energized to vote for a Democrat (/against an incumbent R) than the other way around.

If you want elections to be determined only by intelligent, rational people, I suggest looking at other countries.

lol, which ones? I've been following elections around the world for almost a decade and haven't seen much rationality.

Touche, but at least some countries seem to have a little more common sense than this country, thus why we don't have President Hofer or Le Pen, for example. Point is, we're always going to need to win some "Independents" to vote Democratic for Democrats to win in this country. The thing is, though, even if Heller is winning Independents by 10 (lol), he's still behind, and all indications are that Democrats are going to win Independents, by and large.

I'd still say that 40K is doable in Clark. If Democrats have a decent day, they should get to 36K, and then if turnout is high and they get a good margin, 4K is certainly possible on Friday, especially when you add absentees.

France doesn't have a Le Pen because its electoral system doesn't suck balls, not necessarily because it's filled with more rational people.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Is there a universe in which Latino turnout surges but they don't lean heavily D?

Latino Voter Turnout surges, especially in Texas are correlated with a dramatic increase in working-class Latinos voting, that at least in Tejas, tend to be much more overwhelmingly Democratic than Middle-Class and Upper-Middle Class Latinos, where Republicans (at least traditionally) in the State have tended to perform fairly well among that Demographic...

Too lazy to search through to find relevant Academic articles on this subject from back when I lived in Tejas in the early 2010s in Houston, but I'm sure they are still floating around the "Blogosphere somewhere"....

Sure most of y'all posting on this thread are likely well aware of that, but there are tons of folks that lurk that might not be aware of that basic fact of Texas Latino Voting patterns in particular (Not that this pattern doesn't exist elsewhere in many parts of the US as well...)

So yeah... anyone who has questions on the subject can always take a vape rip or two spend an hour researching this subject from publicly available academic sourcing from articles that have been published over the past 10-15 Years.

Anyone out there looking for a Masters or PHD in Poly-Sci on Atlas, might well consider this as a potential research thesis, considering that this is still a hot topic (Perhaps even more so than it was when Bush Jr was Pres), and Academic Careers have been built on this very subject.

Your analysis is much more coherent, but I was basing my thoughts entirely on Occam's Razor: it's simpler to assume that an energized pool of voters is Democrats (or rather, in a midterm, in the opposition party) than to assume they are Republicans/majority party, regardless of their race.