Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Bidenworth2020]

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LOL, Heller still behind even if he wins independents by double digits.

tbf, trump won nv indies by 13, so not too crazy

[Bidenworth2020]

Ralston said in a post this morning that he still considers NV-SEN a tossup, so apparently he agrees with me on that. I still think people are obsessing too much over the Clark "firewall" and not looking at the state as a whole. Democrats are leading statewide by only 12,000 votes, which is a far cry from 2016's ~45,000 EV statewide advantage. Their percentage lead is about 2.6% right now, and I know Ralston once remarked that either party has a legitimate shot as long as the margin stays below 3%.

Although if there's one more poll showing Rosen ahead, I would tilt this race in her favor.

Comparing overall #s is useless considering turnout was higher in 2016. Not to mention, there's still 3 days left.

Sure, it's not a direct apples-to-apples comparison, but turnout this year is expected to be about 80% of 2016's turnout. That means to that roughly match 2016's statewide advantage, Democrats would need a margin of roughly 36,000 votes. Still falls short. And if Democrats have barely reached a 12,000 vote margin more than 75% of the way through early voting, they are not gaining an extra 24,000 votes over the final 25%.

dem fell from EV to ED 18,000 votes, then. With a projected 80% turnout of 2016, that means about 14400 fall for dems from EV to ED...they lead by 600 votes, so pure tossup, maybe tilt d considering dems will likely improve in the coming 3 days.

[Bidenworth2020]

It is quite a letdown to see a new post on this thread when we're all so eager for news and then find it's an empty quote.

I KNEW THIS WAS GOING TO BE WHAT I FOUND WHEN I CLICKED THE LINK

how do you think the ev is going for dems in az and fl?

[Bidenworth2020]

LAWD JESUS

https://mobile.twitter.com/zachdespart/status/1058532621192515586

congresswoman elect lizzie fletcher.

[Bidenworth2020]

Clark numbers are posted.    48,833 Total votes yesterday.

NICE!

[Bidenworth2020]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

unprecedented turnout on eday in rural areas, which is unlikely, considering they likely have already cannibalized a lot of that vote

[Bidenworth2020]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

[Bidenworth2020]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

how about 2014?