Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal (user search)
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 127520 times)
GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« on: October 24, 2018, 09:52:21 AM »

There were Florida counties in 2016 where nearly 90% of Republican voters turned out. It ate into the big gains that Democrats get from the bigger counties and Trump turned out people everywhere else to win.

 

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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 05:57:38 PM »

 I just got my Florida VBM ballot today.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2018, 08:37:14 PM »

Schale is a Democrat and is trying to hype that vote. He isn’t objective enough.

Ralston is pretty good at making predictions and breaking down the political realities of his state.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2018, 10:47:10 AM »

 I think Trump has definitely solidified the Republican base. The question is how are Indies going to swing and how many women who didn't vote are going to vote now because they are so turned off by Trump's behavior.
 But there is also a troubling trend for Democrats, that the GOP is seen as the only choice for white voters by an increasing number of white people. If the GOP can manage to get even a few percentage points more of the white vote, it wipes out any demographic shift. Especially when many Latinos don't bother to vote.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2018, 11:30:39 AM »

Really hope we have the vote pickup in Broward and Palm Beach today with Sunday voting events after Church.

Republicans are getting out the vote in Florida. Democrats need to step it up.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2018, 11:57:04 AM »

 A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2018, 01:19:09 PM »

I want Democrats to turn out the base, without banking that Independents are swinging their way. Especially when the Republicans are turning out their base. Trump has pretty much solidified the Republican base. He's the most popular Republican president since Reagan, among Republican voters. Democrats have to do better than what they're currently doing in their big counties.

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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2018, 10:34:54 AM »

NPA being young or Latino democrats is only in a few places(I-4 counties). There are also many Republican voters in Florida who don't want to identify with the party.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2018, 10:54:46 AM »

You folks realize that the incumbent governor only won by a point in 2014, right?

Every recent election has been close in Florida. Obama who had a superior GOTV campaign won by 2.81% in 2008 and by only .88% in 2012.

Scott won governor in 2010 by 1.2% and in 2014 by 1%. This is a very close state. What people don't understand is that a lot of the population growth here has actually been white and conservative because of retirees and the suburban housing boom. And that they are reliable voters for the GOP who turn out.

 It seems that many people feel confident that Democrats will win with independants, great. But Democrats should do a better job of turning out their base and groups that will be reliable Democratic voters, instead of hoping they convince swing voters.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2018, 10:53:34 AM »

Wow, are people in this thread still worrying about Democrats losing Nevada?

Roll Eyes

 Nevada looks great. Democrats need to worry about the GOTV in Florida and stop banking on Indies bailing them out or the national mood carrying them to victory.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2018, 01:53:44 PM »

In 2014 Rick Scott beat Crist by 64,145 votes.

The Republican EV lead in 2014 was around 133,000, in 2018 it's only 62,937.

I think that's what he means.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2018, 02:43:29 AM »

Also, if anyone wants to diversify their concern trolling portfolio, how about talking about Florida and Arizona where Republicans actually lead in the early vote (the latter by double digits!) yet all the Dems here assume those races are in the bag, as opposed to the dire situation in Nevada where the fatal problem is that the Dem lead is merely big rather than massive. Roll Eyes

I'm a Florida Democratic voter, I definitely don't think our races are in the bag.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2018, 09:48:25 PM »

I was hoping to see 2016 style footage of people turning out in droves all day long in Clark.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2018, 01:26:53 PM »

Today is the last day of in person EV, but folks can still return their ballots through the mail over the weekend.

Where?
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2018, 01:40:45 PM »


Early vote most places end today, but I was specificially talking about Arizona.


 Okay. In Florida we have EV through Sunday in most of the big counties. So if you're in Florida please go vote.

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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2018, 04:16:50 PM »

how do you think the ev is going for dems in az and fl?

Republicans are turning out in Florida. Some people are comparing this to 2014 and Democrats are doing much better than 2014. But the election is energized and somewhere between a midterm and presidential.

Based on party registration alone I haven't been impressed at all with what Democrats have already turned out in the EV.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2018, 07:56:04 PM »

As a reminder, some EV sites in Clark are open until 8pm today.

I saw some in shopping malls are are open until 9pm.

Love this.

 I want 2016 style footage of people waiting on lines after the polls "closed", if you're on the line you get to vote.

 Nothing is more pathetic than trying to stop people from voting.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2018, 09:55:53 PM »

The concept of cannibalization is the most overrated thing of the 2018 election. A vote is a vote. If you get your sure and most frequent voters to go vote early you can spend time, energy, and money with your ground game to go after low propensity voters.

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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2018, 02:19:29 AM »

Will there be a lot of nasty infighting if Heller loses, amongst Nevada GOP? Apparently a lot of the GOP there wanted to toss him and it was the national party pushing him.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2018, 09:46:44 AM »

Culinary Workers Union Local 226 showed out, no matter what happens.

Let's hope Democrats can have a good election day showing as well.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2018, 02:05:38 PM »

Some of my cousins recently moved to Colorado and they said the registration process was easy and that they will be voting on election day.
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GP270watch
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,558


« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2018, 04:59:27 PM »

I have no confidence in anything TargetSmart does. Their data in Iowa and Ohio 2016 was abysmal.

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