Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Pandaguineapig]

NV numbers so far confirm that it's gonna be close, though the fact that Ralston isn't cheerleading Dem numbers so far like he normally does is probably a good thing for Republicans

[Pandaguineapig]

Democrats have caught up to where they were on this day in Iowa in 2014, even with 10 days of early voting removed by the Republican legislature. Republicans are still behind.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1055187849354625030

RIP Rod Blum and David Young.

Calm down, this guy also predicted a Clinton win in Iowa in 2016

[Pandaguineapig]

He doesn't predict anything, he just cheerleads. These numbers don't mean anything.

In 2016 he "projected" states off of early voting, famous examples include predicting Ohio and Iowa for Clinton

[Pandaguineapig]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

He also guaranteed a 4 point Clinton win because of muh HISPANIC SURGE™, so take what he says through a certain lense

[Pandaguineapig]

I just look forward to Twitter on election night when o'Rourke takes an early lead after the initial early vote dump. Only to have that optimism whither away as the rurals and ed vote come in.

[Pandaguineapig]

Ralston's 1pm PT update on his models:

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This doesn't factor in election day voting which has historically been heavily Republican ( though some of that may be cannibalized in the cow counties)

[Pandaguineapig]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

Take everything through the lense of him predicting soild Clinton and Crist wins.

[Pandaguineapig]

AZ Data Company "Data Orbital" who released a Poll last week showing Democrat Sinema up 5 admits their Poll was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Don't understand why they didn't just poll using the sample they used for the governor race, it would be a lot cheaper and more efficient

[Pandaguineapig]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

Take everything through the lense of him predicting soild Clinton and Crist wins.

Blue Avs are really going hard at the “muh 2016” argument lately.

Just pointing out the idea of a "super pundit" is really stupid. He really doesn't have any more of idea of how the state will turn out than he did on 14 or 16

[Pandaguineapig]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

[Pandaguineapig]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

Is there any way to tell if the Libertarian candidate is taking many votes away from Braun?

No, but the mailers aggressively pushing the libertarian candidate would signal that the Democrats likely see Braun leading and that Donnelly will end up well below 50

[Pandaguineapig]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

Is there any way to tell if the Libertarian candidate is taking many votes away from Braun?

No, but the mailers aggressively pushing the libertarian candidate would signal that the Democrats likely see Braun leading and that Donnelly will end up well below 50

If polls are even close to accurate- It looks like Donnelly needs for the Libertarian candidate to get around 6% or better.  If this how you read the polls?

Yeah 6% is probably the goal, the problem is that such a large portion of the vote is already in (and those votes are rarely third party)

[Pandaguineapig]

Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1057707301912535040

Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?

Low single digits but as you said, not an awesome comparison

[Pandaguineapig]

Has it occurred to anyone that anybody who votes early will not be voting on election night?

You know, I don't think any of had figured out that a person can only vote once. Thank for pointing that out!

I think most people who follow elections know what vote cannibalization is, but I remember seeing idiots on CNN in 2016 saying stuff like "the Latino early vote is up 150% in Florida, therefore  the Latino vote is up 150% Nationwide"