Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[libertpaulian]

Some news from my county!  Looks like early voting was insane this year.  It feels awesome to be among the 38,583!

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/early-voters-shatter-the-old-mark-for-midterm-elections-across/article_8bad2801-1bcf-5446-a4b8-c80a35fec014.html

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Does anyone besides me think this bodes well for Joe Donnelly, assuming turnout in these areas is high tomorrow as well?

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Sounds promising, but do you have any idea how it compares to the rest of the state and to 2016? It is obviously more of a big deal if the increase is greater than elsewhere.

I'm unable to access statewide figures as of now, but here are statistics from Marion County, home to Indianapolis.  This is a county where Joe absolutely must run up the score in order to stay in the game:

https://www.wishtv.com/news/local-news/early-voting-numbers-more-than-2016-presidential-election/1573625396

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In St. Joseph County, Indiana, which is home to South Bend and is the flagship county of Donnelly's former congressional district:

https://www.abc57.com/news/theres-still-time-to-absentee-vote-in-person-in-indiana

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[icemanj]

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Don't forget Abbott has been averaging about 12 points above Cruz in polling. If you take all the TargetSmart data, assume that Unclear are 65-35 Dem, assume all Modeled R vote Abbott and then take 6% of the votes away and give them to Beto for Senate it results in <1% Beto win.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Don't forget Abbott has been averaging about 12 points above Cruz in polling. If you take all the TargetSmart data, assume that Unclear are 65-35 Dem, assume all Modeled R vote Abbott and then take 6% of the votes away and give them to Beto for Senate it results in <1% Beto win.

But Abbott is polling better than Beto primarily because he is doing better with Independents. Presuming that Unclear and Independents are at least roughly similarish sorts of groups of people, the way you are calculating it seems like it double counts the independents. Because you start by giving Dems most of the Unclear, and then also take into account Beto's better performance among independents again when converting from Abbott to Cruz. Whereas if you want to start from Abbott rather than the Senate race, you should start by giving Abbott most of the Unclears...

[2016]

Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.

[henster]

I'm not sure about their modeling for states with no party registration.

[wbrocks67]

Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.

In a state like Indiana, Donnelly is going to get crossover support. So going by partisan EV is not most accurate. Also, there's only 9% indies in the EV? That seems low.

[henster]

Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.

In a state like Indiana, Donnelly is going to get crossover support. So going by partisan EV is not most accurate. Also, there's only 9% indies in the EV? That seems low.

I think it goes by voting in past primaries if no party registration which is dubious.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.

Oops, you are right, I should have had Indiana - I am not sure why I didn't earlier (probably either they didn't have many votes when I first set it up, or maybe they started EV later). It is about 500k votes, so that is actually a considerable amount, too.

Here are the #s for Indiana in the same format as the others I posted:

Code:

IN --- All Voters  ---           35.1% D --- 55.6% R --- 9.3% UNK ---                          D+7.6 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014
IN --- Super Voter ---           34.4% D --- 58.6% R --- 6.9% UNK ---                          D+5.7 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014
IN --- Freq. Voter ---           37.7% D --- 54.2% R --- 8.1% UNK ---                          D+11.1 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014
IN --- Infreq. Vt. ---           31.3% D --- 53.1% R --- 15.6% UNK ---                          D+3 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014
IN --- Never Voted ---           26.2% D --- 49.9% R --- 23.9% UNK ---                          R+6.2 Swing in Partisanship Margin from 2014

You have the overall partisanship margin there. That is good for Rs, but on the other hand it may be more or less in line with what one would expect for IN (and hence baked into the polling). It actually seems to look better for Rs when you break it down by vote history, as opposed to just looking at the top line.

The good thing for Dems is that there is a large swing (D+7.6) in modeled partisanship of early voters as compared to 2014, but it appears that the swing was concentrated among Frequent voters (and somewhat also Super voters, but in particular Frequent voters). There is a much weaker D+3 swing among Infrequent voters, and actually an R+6.2 swing against brand new voters (although that group is only 18,870 people, but in most states Dems are getting a swing in turnout of new voters).

So there should be some concern among Dems about cannibalization of the election day vote, and Dems in Indiana appear to be under-performing somewhat in turning out infrequent and new voters. But at least since the swing to Dems is more concentrated among Frequent than Super voters, the fear of cannibalization should not be quite as great as if it were more concentrated among Super voters in particular.

[NOVA Green]

Final update on TargetSmart nationwide early vote data (Focusing on the crosstab of Partisanship and Vote History) CONTINUED[size]


....[ SNIP].....

Thanks for posting all this!

Although we could certainly question their methodology, it does give us some interesting comparative data, especially for those State with a significant EV/VbM component.

[libertpaulian]

I also think 2014 is a very bad year to compare to, given we didn't have any significantly contested races statewide.  All the congressional races were uncontested.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.

In a state like Indiana, Donnelly is going to get crossover support. So going by partisan EV is not most accurate. Also, there's only 9% indies in the EV? That seems low.

I think it goes by voting in past primaries if no party registration which is dubious.

I can't speak to the TargetSmart partisanship modeling in particular, but other partisanship modeling in Voter Files which is made in a similar way is usually based on a variety of factors (basically anything that can statistically predict partisanship), including primary voting, but also many other things such as demographics of age/gender/race/modeled race, but also data such as past election results in the precinct the voter lives in, census data about the census block the voter lives in, and also other things like consumer data. In general the modeling would be much less complete (with many more unknowns) if all that were used was primary voting history.

Indeed, the modeling is not going to be perfect, but it should be at least fairly close to the best that is achievable. You can criticize it by saying that it could be wrong (indeed, it could be and no doubt to some extent is), but the alternative is really just to have no data at all about the partisanship of the early voters. And I don't think that is a better alternative. It should generally be more accurate on a macro level over large numbers of individuals than for any one individual voter, at least if it is like other partisanship modeling.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I also think 2014 is a very bad year to compare to, given we didn't have any significantly contested races statewide.  All the congressional races were uncontested.

Similar problem (but in reverse) as to North Carolina then. Although it *usually* does make more sense to compare to the last midterm, It would be nice if they had 2016 data for comparison as well.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

In a state like Indiana, Donnelly is going to get crossover support. So going by partisan EV is not most accurate. Also, there's only 9% indies in the EV? That seems low.

They are not per se indies, they are unknown/unclassified. In general they try to classify people if they can, on the basis of any information/best reasonable guess being better than no information.

[2016]

I also think 2014 is a very bad year to compare to, given we didn't have any significantly contested races statewide.  All the congressional races were uncontested.

I agree with you here.

Here is the Map of the 2012 Senate Race between Donnelly/Mourdock/Horning

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/IN/senate/

Donnelly will win Lake County (Gary), Marion (Indianapolis) and Monroe (Bloomington) BUT I wouldn't be surprised if some of these Counties around South Bend are going to flip from Blue to Red. In fact, Braun has to flip some of these to have a chance at winning.

[2016]

Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.

In a state like Indiana, Donnelly is going to get crossover support. So going by partisan EV is not most accurate. Also, there's only 9% indies in the EV? That seems low.

I know Donnelly will get crossover support but there are some other factors to consider especially the Urban/Rual Divide that started big in 2016. Trump in every State lost the Urban & Suburban vote by a lot against Clinton but made up for it by busting through every imagineable Rual Turnout Cap. How are these ruby-red Counties turning out compared to 2016? If Braun wins a lot of these by lopsided 30K to 3K margins then he can make up for in what Donnelly gets in the Cities.

Actually, tomorrows Election will DIVIDE us even futher because of that Rual/Urban divide. Braun winning Non-College Educated Whites by some 30-35 Points for starters.

[Classic Conservative]

Are the NH towns voting at midnight again this year?

[Holmes]

^ It could be the Taylor Swift effect. Or because it’s Tennessee’s first competitive statewide race in over a decade.

[Oryxslayer]

^ It could be the Taylor Swift effect. Or because it’s Tennessee’s first competitive statewide race in over a decade.

Same situation in Texas, I have seen a few models out there that say texas turnout might match 2012 at the end of this. Which is great for a midterm. For a state that typically is one of the worst turnout-wise in the nation, it is interesting to see what will happen now that they have a competitive race.

[libertpaulian]

Are the NH towns voting at midnight again this year?

No, that's only a presidential ritual.

[henster]

Target Smart is VoteCastr 2.0. Only thing I trust from them is data from states with party registration.

[RI]

Target Smart is VoteCastr 2.0. Only thing I trust from them is data from states with party registration.

The problem with VoteCastr was that it relied on polls which ended up being wrong. AFAIK, TargetSmart doesn't use polls.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Target Smart is VoteCastr 2.0. Only thing I trust from them is data from states with party registration.

"Modeled Dem" and "Modeled Rep" is explicitly NOT supposed to predict which candidate will win in any particular race.

[BundouYMB]

Target Smart is VoteCastr 2.0. Only thing I trust from them is data from states with party registration.

"Modeled Dem" and "Modeled Rep" is explicitly NOT supposed to predict which candidate will win in any particular race.

True, and it is thus impossible to judge whether they're any good at modeling that. Very convenient for them. However, as I pointed out in some other thread TargetSmart has in fact done polls before and has also done models to predict the winners of elections. When they did that (publicly, anyways) they were quite bad.

Therefore, I'm not inclined to trust their modeling of this either.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON UPDATE for BALLOTS RECEIVED FROM COUNTIES to SoS 11/5/18 AM:

So huge update, from Oregon at a time where a huge chunk of ballots start to roll in before Election Day.

Oregon is a Vote by Mail State, but also includes Ballot drop boxes conveniently located in various parts of the State.

This means there might well be wide variations when it comes to exactly when ballots get technically received by the County Election Offices....

So these numbers were posted First thing Monday Morning. but likely do not include ballots not received through the Mail over the Weekend in many cases, as well as likely not including ballots deposited in drop boxes throughout the State....

So.... as of 8:15 AM according to the SoS, these are the raw numbers by party received to date:



We currently have 1.1 Million Ballots Received and Democrats lead by + 137k Votes.

This is actually pretty astounding, especially for a Mid-term election with no PRES or SEN race on the ballot....

Now let's look at total % of Votes received by the SoS by Party Registration Statewide.



Looks like the 'Pubs had a really bad day, when they needed to have a really good day....

DEMS currently lead (44.2% D) - (31.7% R)- (24.1% NAV/OTHER)   vs RV (35.6% DEM- 31.8% PUB- 32.6% NAV/OTHER).

How to explain: Let's start with the DEM vs PUB EV GAP by County to DATE---



Fine, so if one looks at the landmass of Oregon it might appear to be decent on paper, but reality is that these numbers do not appear at all to be favorable to Republican Candidates in most of the State....

Looks like Walden will likely hold on in CD-02, but Brown's margins will likely hold on +10 % D, despite the Upstate/Downstate Oregon dynamics...

Now obviously we are getting to point of discussing which Republican held OR-SEN and OR-REP seats might well flip....

Suburban PDX in WashCo and ClackCo not looking so friendly, and reality is that key OR-GOP Senate Districts are in heavily Exurban Districts in places where DJT isn't popular at all...

Other Districts in Mid-Valley held by GOP could well flip, not to mention main district in Southern Oregon (OR-SEN CD-03)....

Off for now, but at this point I'm extremely skeptical of a last minute Oregon 'Pub surge combined with massive defections of DEMs, and overwhelming Indie support.

[SCNCmod]

8 ) Tennessee early & absentee vote turnout by group, compared to 2014:
18-29: +663% (!!!)
30-39: +431%
40-49: +337%
50-64: +241%
65+: +244%
Af-Ams: +243%
Caucasian: +333% (!!!)
Unmarried: +340%
Never voted: +930% (!!!)

Even though this is one of the 1st competitive statewide races in a while (pointed out in this thread)... these #'s are abnormally high.  Especially never voted.

I can't tell if they are better for Bredesen or Blackburn?  Does anyone have a read on who they are more likely to benefit?