Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[wbrocks67]

Democrats in Shelby County have +30k lead in TN:
https://www.facebook.com/1120290057/posts/10216820073230388/

First time voters are up nearly 1,000% in TN from 2014:
https://twitter.com/politicsreid/status/1058705806676385792?s=21

[Brittain33]

Democrats in Shelby County have +30k lead in TN:
https://www.facebook.com/1120290057/posts/10216820073230388/

First time voters are up nearly 1,000% in TN from 2014:
https://twitter.com/politicsreid/status/1058705806676385792?s=21

Gen Z just loves the Marsha Blackburn filter on Snapchat.

[KingSweden]

Democrats in Shelby County have +30k lead in TN:
https://www.facebook.com/1120290057/posts/10216820073230388/

First time voters are up nearly 1,000% in TN from 2014:
https://twitter.com/politicsreid/status/1058705806676385792?s=21

30k in Shelby seems a bit low, doesn’t it?

[Brittain33]

Democrats in Shelby County have +30k lead in TN:
https://www.facebook.com/1120290057/posts/10216820073230388/

First time voters are up nearly 1,000% in TN from 2014:
https://twitter.com/politicsreid/status/1058705806676385792?s=21

30k in Shelby seems a bit low, doesn’t it?

Clinton won Shelby overall with 208,992-116,344.

[Nyvin]

Clark numbers are posted.    48,833 Total votes yesterday.

[Bidenworth2020]

Clark numbers are posted.    48,833 Total votes yesterday.

NICE!

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058726829773582336

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058726829773582336

Holy friggin moly. GG

[Woody]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

[Devout Centrist]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

Very simple really, he just has to win independents by 15

[Crumpets]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

Only semi joking.

[Bidenworth2020]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

unprecedented turnout on eday in rural areas, which is unlikely, considering they likely have already cannibalized a lot of that vote

[Hindsight was 2020]

What would tip the balance in favor of Heller?

Very simple really, he just has to win independents by 15

Shouldn’t be too hard what is the demographics breakdown of indies so far in EV? *checks notes* Ohh never mind

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058726829773582336

Ralston, just 48 hours ago: "Clark firewall at 33,000, so 40,000 will be difficult but possible if two big days."

60 hours ago: "So 35,000 is a lock, 40,000 would require an average of 3,500 added Thursday and Friday. Unlikely."

72 hours ago: "They will have a firewall — at least 35,000 and as much as 40,000 — but it will not be as large as a presidential year."

Tuesday night: "If past cycle’s turnout patterns hold, Dems will only do better on the last three days in Clark, should get to 35,000, perhaps 40,000. If they get to 40,000, and continue to hold their own in Washoe, the rural landslide will not be enough to save statewides unless Dems are losing more than normal off their bases and losing indies by double digits."

Sunday night: "By the way, the firewall at the end of early voting when Harry Reid was saved by his machine in 2010: 25,000. There were 400,000 fewer registered voters in Clark eight years ago, so a comparable number this cycle would be about 35,000."

One week ago: "They appear on target to get to 35,000 — assuming no odd reversal in trends, with an outside chance to get to 40,000. Either would be a big number for a midterm — 35,000 would make the Dems feel pretty good; 40,000 would make the GOP worry, I think."

[GP270watch]

Culinary Workers Union Local 226 showed out, no matter what happens.

Let's hope Democrats can have a good election day showing as well.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Welp for the first time Rosen is now up in the 538 senate projections

[Aurelio21]

If you compare EV turnout in rural Nevada 2016 to 2018: The turnout has already reached presidential levels, while in Clark it is 10 %Points under the 2016 level:
2018:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5981
2016:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4567

Note that like in 2016, Election day only accounts for appr. 2/5 of the vote cast in Nevada.
Secondly, the absolute EV+VBM 2018 vs 2016
Take Carston City, for example: The Republicans absoulte numbers have decreased about 200, while the Democrats have added 600 votes. Thus at least in Nevada, there is no evidence of a "red tidal wave in rural America" , rather a cannibalized early vote there. Whereas in Clark County, about 50,000 Democrats haven't voted yet.

(Added )

[Tender Branson]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

2 things I don't get:

* why are there lines in the first place ? There should be enough early voting precincts and voters should be assigned to their precinct, so that there's a cap of 500-1000 voters per precinct. Which would mean there are no lines.

* why are these people waiting 5, 6 or 7 hours in a line to vote early ? If they could do so in 5 minutes on election day ? Or by postal ballot ?

[Tintrlvr]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

2 things I don't get:

* why are there lines in the first place ? There should be enough early voting precincts and voters should be assigned to their precinct, so that there's a cap of 500-1000 voters per precinct. Which would mean there are no lines.

* why are these people waiting 5, 6 or 7 hours in a line to vote early ? If they could do so in 5 minutes on election day ? Or by postal ballot ?

There are usually only a few or just one early voting location per county, so there’s not nearly enough capacity when turnout is high. Republicans have of course pushed to cut back locations over the years since Obama made early voting a big part of his 2008 strategy, too.

I don’t really know why people wait in long lines. Some of them maybe can’t easily get to their polling place on Election Day but for many it is likely performative of their enthusiasm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

2 things I don't get:

* why are there lines in the first place ? There should be enough early voting precincts and voters should be assigned to their precinct, so that there's a cap of 500-1000 voters per precinct. Which would mean there are no lines.

* why are these people waiting 5, 6 or 7 hours in a line to vote early ? If they could do so in 5 minutes on election day ? Or by postal ballot ?

At least in Georgia, early voting is not done at the local precinct.  My county (Forsyth) had early voting at the central elections office for the last two weeks, and at three satellite locations for last week only.  Any county voter can use any of these early locations.  This is a county with 230K people and 145K registered voters, and I think it's a bit more generous than the average county.  For Election Day, there are 16 precincts distributed across the county; on Election Day, you can only vote in your home precinct.

[Tender Branson]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

2 things I don't get:

* why are there lines in the first place ? There should be enough early voting precincts and voters should be assigned to their precinct, so that there's a cap of 500-1000 voters per precinct. Which would mean there are no lines.

* why are these people waiting 5, 6 or 7 hours in a line to vote early ? If they could do so in 5 minutes on election day ? Or by postal ballot ?

At least in Georgia, early voting is not done at the local precinct.  My county (Forsyth) had early voting at the central elections office for the last two weeks, and at three satellite locations for last week only.  Any county voter can use any of these early locations.  This is a county with 230K people and 145K registered voters, and I think it's a bit more generous than the average county.  For Election Day, there are 16 precincts distributed across the county; on Election Day, you can only vote in your home precinct.

Stuff like this is always a recipe for disaster ...

For early voting, there should be the same precinct infrastructure in place as for election day.

Otherwise, you will always have these massive lines where people have to wait for hours and are likely to give up, go back home and not vote again. Which would be bad.

Election officials should be able to find enough (retired) poll workers to keep all the precincts open for a certain period (the week or so before election day).

[Xing]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

[UncleSam]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

Uh that’s not quite accurate. 22k statewide is a strong lead, but in 2016 the EV lead was 47k. Obviously Dems won by about 25k in the senate race in the end, meaning that between winning Indy’s and ED Rs gained 22k. If you assume 80% turnout then that’s a 18k gain, which would indicate Dems winning by 4K statewide if 2018 follows 2016 patterns exactly.

So in other words, a 2016 performance would yield toss-up / tilt D races. Of course, 2018 is not 2016 and Ds seem primed to do better on ED than they have in the past, perhaps battling it to a near draw. Additionally, Ds should do better with Indys than they did two years ago.

In other words, it’s a Lean D race in both the senate and governors races, but it’s not likely or safe based on these numbers. It is in fact a worse showing than Ds had in 2016 early voting, though only by a bit. Dems definitely turned up the heat a lot yesterday though - without that Clark performance things were going to look more like a pure tossup.

[Aurelio21]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

First of all, I am trying to be as objective as I can. As you can see from my avatar, I am from Germany and am wishing that a certain German Chancelor would have never opened the borders. Until this time, there was practically no crime in the small city I am living in.

The Trump strategy contradicts your proposed goals needed for Victory(edited word), it is based on turning out the rural base. But as turnout in rural nevada is around 53 % already, there are simply no republicans left for overcoming the 23,000 votes!! Instead of focussing on bread-and-butter issues, I highly doubt that in this nationalized climate indenpendents will break 2:1 for Mr Heller, or that all Democrats sit out the election and will try to vote on November 7th.

[ON Progressive]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

Uh that’s not quite accurate. 22k statewide is a strong lead, but in 2016 the EV lead was 47k. Obviously Dems won by about 25k in the senate race in the end, meaning that between winning Indy’s and ED Rs gained 22k. If you assume 80% turnout then that’s a 18k gain, which would indicate Dems winning by 4K statewide if 2018 follows 2016 patterns exactly.

So in other words, a 2016 performance would yield toss-up / tilt D races. Of course, 2018 is not 2016 and Ds seem primed to do better on ED than they have in the past, perhaps battling it to a near draw. Additionally, Ds should do better with Indys than they did two years ago.

In other words, it’s a Lean D race in both the senate and governors races, but it’s not likely or safe based on these numbers. It is in fact a worse showing than Ds had in 2016 early voting, though only by a bit. Dems definitely turned up the heat a lot yesterday though - without that Clark performance things were going to look more like a pure tossup.

Ralston himself has said to not compare this year to 2016.