Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Antonio the Sixth]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

[IceSpear]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

Yeah, it's absolutely awful that Heller could win independents by 10 points and still lose. Awful for Heller that is, not Sen. Rosen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

Yeah, it's absolutely awful that Heller could win independents by 10 points and still lose. Awful for Heller that is, not Sen. Rosen.

Don't be disingenuous. The point of the early vote is for Dems to bank enough of a lead to stand up to the Republican-leaning ED vote. If they can't do that now, God knows what can happen on election day.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's an update on the TargetSmart crosstab between modeled partisanship and vote history category. As a reminder, this is a comparison of the swing in partisanship (as measured by the TargetSmart partisanship model) of people who have voted early in 2018 as compared to people who voted early by the same point in 2014. A lot of states seem to not have updated data


AZ --- Super Voter ---           R+3.9 ---           (R+0.6 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Frequent Voter ---           D+1.5 ---           (R+1.1 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+11.9 ---           (R+1.7 Since Yesterday)
AZ --- Never Voted ---           D+24.6 ---           (R+3 Since Yesterday)

Some improvement for Rs, but still R cannibalization of Super Voters and Ds doing well as comapred to 2014 with infrequent voters.



CA --- Super Voter ---           D+6.2 ---           (D+0.3 Since Yesterday)
CA --- Frequent Voter ---           D+5.7 ---           (D+0.6 Since Yesterday)
CA --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+3.6 ---           (D+0.5 Since Yesterday)
CA --- Never Voted ---           R+2.5 ---           (R+0.3 Since Yesterday)

General improvement for Ds, maybe a bit of D cannibalization compared to 2014.


FL --- Super Voter ---           D+5 ---           (R+0.3 Since Yesterday)
FL --- Frequent Voter ---           D+9.1 ---           (R+0 Since Yesterday)
FL --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+9.7 ---           (D+0.3 Since Yesterday)
FL --- Never Voted ---           D+15.2 ---           (D+0.4 Since Yesterday)

Improvement for Ds with infrequents, improvement for Rs with Super Voters (reducing the relative Dem cannibalization risk).



IA --- Super Voter ---           D+5.5 ---           (R+0.3 Since Yesterday)
IA --- Frequent Voter ---           R+1.7 ---           (D+0.2 Since Yesterday)
IA --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+4.6 ---           (D+1.2 Since Yesterday)
IA --- Never Voted ---           D+0.4 ---           (D+1.4 Since Yesterday)

Rs doing better with Super Voters, Ds better with Infrequents, same pattern as CA.



MI --- Super Voter ---           D+2.2 ---           (R+0.3 Since Yesterday)
MI --- Frequent Voter ---           R+3.6 ---           (R+0.4 Since Yesterday)
MI --- Infrequent Voter ---           R+4.6 ---           (R+0.1 Since Yesterday)
MI --- Never Voted ---           R+5.6 ---           (R+0.8 Since Yesterday)

R improvement. The early (absentee by mail) vote is getting more troubling for Dems in MI.



MT --- Super Voter ---           R+1.8 ---           (R+0.1 Since Yesterday)
MT --- Frequent Voter ---           D+2 ---           (D+0.2 Since Yesterday)
MT --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+4.4 ---           (R+0.3 Since Yesterday)
MT --- Never Voted ---           D+2.4 ---           (D+0.4 Since Yesterday)

Small mixed changes.



OH --- Super Voter ---           R+0.7 ---           (D+0.1 Since Yesterday)
OH --- Frequent Voter ---           R+1 ---           (D+0 Since Yesterday)
OH --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+2.4 ---           (D+0 Since Yesterday)
OH --- Never Voted ---           D+9.7 ---           (R+0 Since Yesterday)

Hardly any new votes updated by TargetSmart, so not much change.



TN --- Super Voter ---           R+9 ---           (R+0.1 Since Yesterday)
TN --- Frequent Voter ---           R+6.8 ---           (D+0 Since Yesterday)
TN --- Infrequent Voter ---           R+7.9 ---           (D+0.1 Since Yesterday)
TN --- Never Voted ---           R+7.7 ---           (D+0 Since Yesterday)

Hardly any new votes updated by TargetSmart, so not much change.



VA --- Super Voter ---           D+10.2 ---           (R+0.3 Since Yesterday)
VA --- Frequent Voter ---           D+15.6 ---           (D+0.2 Since Yesterday)
VA --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+15.2 ---           (D+0.1 Since Yesterday)
VA --- Never Voted ---           D+5.6 ---           (D+0.6 Since Yesterday)

Same pattern as CA and IA - Rs getting some improvement with Super Voters, Dems improving with Infrequents.

[Xing]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

Yeah, it's absolutely awful that Heller could win independents by 10 points and still lose. Awful for Heller that is, not Sen. Rosen.

Don't be disingenuous. The point of the early vote is for Dems to bank enough of a lead to stand up to the Republican-leaning ED vote. If they can't do that now, God knows what can happen on election day.

We don't know that ED vote will be R-leaning. Republicans could just as easily be cannibalizing their vote. And while Trump won Independents by double digits in 2016 (still not enough for him to win), I doubt Heller will do the same.

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone have any theories as to why Halloween turnout is usually so bad for Dems? It doesn’t seem like Dems would be significantly more likely to be involved or anything.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

Yeah, it's absolutely awful that Heller could win independents by 10 points and still lose. Awful for Heller that is, not Sen. Rosen.

Don't be disingenuous. The point of the early vote is for Dems to bank enough of a lead to stand up to the Republican-leaning ED vote. If they can't do that now, God knows what can happen on election day.

Remember, it looks somewhat better (at least as compared to 2014) when one doesn't just look at party registration, but also takes into account vote history. Dems are doing best with Infrequent/New voters, whereas Republicans are (relatively more) just turning out people who we knew would vote anyway.

In the TargetSmart data (which is a day or two behind):

Rs are ahead with Super-Voters 50.0-45.6
Ds are ahead with Frequent Voters 49.7-42.9
Ds are ahead with Infrequent Voters 53.1-37.8
Ds are ahead with Never Voted 49.1-39.6


And here's the change as compared to 2014, which should reinforce that Dems are doing particularly well in NV where it counts - in turning out people who are not otherwise as likely to vote on election day.

NV --- Super Voter ---           D+8.3 ---           (No Update Since Yesterday)
NV --- Frequent Voter ---           D+16.7 ---           (No Update Since Yesterday)
NV --- Infrequent Voter ---           D+22.7 ---           (No Update Since Yesterday)
NV --- Never Voted ---           D+15.7 ---           (No Update Since Yesterday)


So, relative to what one might expect from previous NV elections, Rs are probably at a bit more relative risk of having cannibalized their election day vote than Ds would usually be. That means that Ds probably don't need as big of an early vote freiwal as they would otherwise usually need.


Another way to look at it -

In 2014, virtually the same share of Modeled Dem Early Voters were Super-Voters (48%) as the share of Modeled Rep Early Voters who were Super-Voters (50%).

Whereas in 2018, only 35% of Modeled Dem Early Voters are Super-Voters as compared to 42% of Modeled Rep early voters being Super-Voters.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

We don't know that ED vote will be R-leaning. Republicans could just as easily be cannibalizing their vote.

Indeed, if you look at the vote history and not just the registration, that is what it looks like. The Republican Nevada E-Day vote is not so likely to be as strong as one might otherwise expect.

[IceSpear]

This Clark margin is f**king anemic. Turnout is what it is, but Democrats are still 3 points below registration. This isn't good, people.

Yeah, it's absolutely awful that Heller could win independents by 10 points and still lose. Awful for Heller that is, not Sen. Rosen.

Don't be disingenuous. The point of the early vote is for Dems to bank enough of a lead to stand up to the Republican-leaning ED vote. If they can't do that now, God knows what can happen on election day.

We don't know that ED vote will be R-leaning. Republicans could just as easily be cannibalizing their vote. And while Trump won Independents by double digits in 2016 (still not enough for him to win), I doubt Heller will do the same.

Did you forget that #EveryElectionWillBeLike2016?

Hey, if we're going to play this game, I can play too. Reid only had a 25k vote lead in Clark, which is less than Rosen currently has and will be far less than she has when all is said and done, and he still won by 6 points. Therefore, Rosen will easily win by double digits. #EveryElectionWillBeLike2010

Point is, if Dean Heller of all people is winning independents and ED voters by big enough blowouts to overturn Rosen's banked lead, then Democrats have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race. Like getting their House gains out of the single digits and preventing a Republican filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

[Xing]

Does anyone have any theories as to why Halloween turnout is usually so bad for Dems? It doesn’t seem like Dems would be significantly more likely to be involved or anything.

I'm not sure it's just bad for Democrats. Looking at previous years, it seems like turnout is usually slightly down across the state in NV on Halloween.

Did you forget that #EveryElectionWillBeLike2016?

Hey, if we're going to play this game, I can play too. Reid only had a 25k vote lead in Clark, which is less than Rosen currently has and will be far less than she has when all is said and done, and he still won by 6 points. Therefore, Rosen will easily win by double digits. #EveryElectionWillBeLike2010

Point is, if Dean Heller of all people is winning independents and ED voters by big enough blowouts to overturn Rosen's banked lead, then Democrats have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race. Like getting their House gains out of the single digits and preventing a Republican filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

Yeah, this is the point that people need to get into their heads. If Dean Heller is winning, or if the race is within 1%, Democrats are having an awful night. It's really that simple.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Does anyone have any theories as to why Halloween turnout is usually so bad for Dems? It doesn’t seem like Dems would be significantly more likely to be involved or anything.

Because all the zombies mummies and ghosts are out trick or treating and not voting.

[IceSpear]

Does anyone have any theories as to why Halloween turnout is usually so bad for Dems? It doesn’t seem like Dems would be significantly more likely to be involved or anything.

I'm not sure it's just bad for Democrats. Looking at previous years, it seems like turnout is usually slightly down across the state in NV on Halloween.

Did you forget that #EveryElectionWillBeLike2016?

Hey, if we're going to play this game, I can play too. Reid only had a 25k vote lead in Clark, which is less than Rosen currently has and will be far less than she has when all is said and done, and he still won by 6 points. Therefore, Rosen will easily win by double digits. #EveryElectionWillBeLike2010

Point is, if Dean Heller of all people is winning independents and ED voters by big enough blowouts to overturn Rosen's banked lead, then Democrats have a lot bigger problems to worry about than this race. Like getting their House gains out of the single digits and preventing a Republican filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

Yeah, this is the point that people need to get into their heads. If Dean Heller is winning, or if the race is within 1%, Democrats are having an awful night. It's really that simple.

No, clearly there are two universes. The universe of Nevada which is guaranteed to be 2016 redux (except Republicans win this time, because reasons), and the universe of literally everywhere else where there will be a megagigatsunami for the Democrats.

[Xing]

We finally have some numbers, including Washoe. Looks like Democrats won the in person vote by 14 votes, while Republicans won absentees by 69 votes, so they're definitely not ahead in Washoe. Democrats now lead by about 650 votes overall in Washoe. Looks like turnout went down across the state, not just in Clark, so Democrats probably gain a couple hundred votes statewide today.

By my imprecise math, Democrats are ahead by about 13.2K statewide, 33.2K in Clark.

[IceSpear]

Also, if anyone wants to diversify their concern trolling portfolio, how about talking about Florida and Arizona where Republicans actually lead in the early vote (the latter by double digits!) yet all the Dems here assume those races are in the bag, as opposed to the dire situation in Nevada where the fatal problem is that the Dem lead is merely big rather than massive.

[Panda Express]

Does anyone have any theories as to why Halloween turnout is usually so bad for Dems? It doesn’t seem like Dems would be significantly more likely to be involved or anything.

Which two groups of people are most likely to want nothing to do Halloween? Old people and lame people

Which two groups of people are most likely to be Republicans? Old people and lame people

[Tender Branson]

Another big day in TN yesterday with ~100.000 votes.

Today will be the last day to vote early there and about 120-130.000 final votes are expected.

For ca. 1.3-1.4 million in total vs. 1.66 million in the 2016 GE.

In 2014, about 0.6 million voted early ...

[TarHeelDem]

Also, if anyone wants to diversify their concern trolling portfolio, how about talking about Florida and Arizona where Republicans actually lead in the early vote (the latter by double digits!) yet all the Dems here assume those races are in the bag, as opposed to the dire situation in Nevada where the fatal problem is that the Dem lead is merely big rather than massive.

Pretty sure the GOP lead in AZ is in the single digits now.

[GP270watch]

Also, if anyone wants to diversify their concern trolling portfolio, how about talking about Florida and Arizona where Republicans actually lead in the early vote (the latter by double digits!) yet all the Dems here assume those races are in the bag, as opposed to the dire situation in Nevada where the fatal problem is that the Dem lead is merely big rather than massive.

I'm a Florida Democratic voter, I definitely don't think our races are in the bag.

[Lachi]

Dems actually did much better this Halloween than last time

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057861027713310720

[wbrocks67]

Dems actually did much better this Halloween than last time

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057861027713310720

I'd say +10D then for Halloween this year is pretty damn good.

[Adam Griffin]

Oklahoma early in-person voting begins today. Here is the composition of mailed and returned ballots as of this morning:

OK-Mailed:
GOP: 49.01%
DEM: 39.54%
OTH: 11.45%

OK-Returned:
GOP: 51.74%
DEM: 39.60%
OTH: 8.66%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Analysis of Upshot polls: independents are breaking 2-1 toward the Democrats.  An important point (bolded) for EV analysis:

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[KingSweden]

Oklahoma early in-person voting begins today. Here is the composition of mailed and returned ballots as of this morning:

OK-Mailed:
GOP: 49.01%
DEM: 39.54%
OTH: 11.45%

OK-Returned:
GOP: 51.74%
DEM: 39.60%
OTH: 8.66%

This seems... not that bad, for Democrats

[RI]

OK still has a ton of registered Demosaurs (although a declining number).

[Adam Griffin]

This seems... not that bad, for Democrats

Keep in mind that OK had a Democratic registration advantage until just a few years ago, Democrats were 47% of the Oklahoma primary electorate this year, etc.