Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[IceSpear]

It's only fitting that we're close to mischief night, because so many people, pundits, posters, pollsters, and "experts" are going to have cartons of eggs splattered on their face after Rosen wins. I can't wait.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

[Xing]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

I'd read "possible" as more of a maybe. It will largely depend on turnout and margins. Usually there's a big push in the last couple of days, and if Democrats can pad a lot to their margin then, 35K should definitely be doable, and maybe they can hit 40K. I think he's being careful, since Democrats had a great first weekend, then Republicans significantly improved early in the week.

[Gass3268]

Here are the Democratic margins each day (some of these are close estimates due to not being able to get the precise number down to the single digit):

4,435   10/20/18
1,630   10/21/18
1,935   10/22/18
2,535   10/23/18
2,334   10/24/18
2,235   10/25/18
2,934   10/26/18
4,007   10/27/18
2,756   Average

If Democrats can match their average for the last 6 days, you get to a 38,579 lead in Clark County.

[Coastal Elitist]

California update. Vote by congressional district sorted by highest vote total as of 10/26.

CD   Democratic   %   Republican   %   Other   %   Total 24   24,656   38.7%   24,401   38.3%   14,585   22.9%   63,642 2   31,432   52.7%   14,273   23.9%   13,901   23.3%   59,606 1   17,761   30.5%   28,199   48.5%   12,205   21.0%   58,165 7   22,641   39.8%   21,657   38.0%   12,650   22.2%   56,948 5   28,671   53.2%   12,935   24.0%   12,324   22.9%   53,930 4   16,572   31.5%   24,855   47.2%   11,266   21.4%   52,693 48   16,036   31.0%   24,374   47.1%   11,315   21.9%   51,725 45   15,198   30.2%   23,687   47.0%   11,489   22.8%   50,374 18   23,102   47.2%   12,003   24.5%   13,876   28.3%   48,981 49   15,202   33.1%   19,940   43.4%   10,762   23.4%   45,904 11   23,689   51.6%   12,056   26.3%   10,152   22.1%   45,897 15   19,982   49.0%   10,150   24.9%   10,617   26.1%   40,749 19   19,129   47.1%   10,118   24.9%   11,405   28.1%   40,652 23   10,655   26.5%   21,081   52.4%   8,502   21.1%   40,238 12   23,317   58.8%   3,998   10.1%   12,337   31.1%   39,652 52   14,111   36.5%   14,060   36.4%   10,490   27.1%   38,661 33   17,332   45.3%   11,337   29.7%   9,552   25.0%   38,221 3   14,932   39.4%   14,426   38.1%   8,541   22.5%   37,899 50   10,515   27.8%   18,713   49.5%   8,586   22.7%   37,814 26   15,302   40.5%   14,047   37.2%   8,403   22.3%   37,752 6   19,434   51.5%   9,429   25.0%   8,888   23.5%   37,751 22   12,068   32.0%   18,969   50.3%   6,644   17.6%   37,681 13   24,993   67.7%   3,374   9.1%   8,570   23.2%   36,937 8   11,303   30.7%   17,470   47.4%   8,059   21.9%   36,832 17   16,967   47.0%   7,478   20.7%   11,670   32.3%   36,115 20   18,120   51.3%   9,644   27.3%   7,563   21.4%   35,327 14   17,856   53.2%   6,493   19.3%   9,240   27.5%   33,589 10   13,535   40.5%   13,780   41.3%   6,068   18.2%   33,383 39   9,830   30.5%   15,369   47.6%   7,072   21.9%   32,271 9   13,986   43.5%   11,948   37.2%   6,217   19.3%   32,151 25   11,377   35.4%   13,692   42.6%   7,042   21.9%   32,111 53   13,850   44.2%   10,048   32.1%   7,419   23.7%   31,317 36   12,492   40.8%   12,179   39.8%   5,962   19.5%   30,633 47   11,569   41.2%   10,036   35.7%   6,470   23.0%   28,075 30   13,879   51.3%   7,118   26.3%   6,060   22.4%   27,057 31   11,464   42.8%   9,924   37.0%   5,406   20.2%   26,794 28   13,258   52.0%   5,739   22.5%   6,518   25.5%   25,515 21   9,793   41.4%   9,314   39.4%   4,526   19.2%   23,633 27   9,923   42.6%   7,356   31.5%   6,039   25.9%   23,318 16   10,215   44.5%   8,249   36.0%   4,473   19.5%   22,937 37   13,555   65.8%   2,468   12.0%   4,588   22.3%   20,611 42   6,037   29.6%   10,432   51.1%   3,952   19.4%   20,421 46   7,829   43.0%   6,558   36.0%   3,816   21.0%   18,203 38   8,002   45.7%   5,499   31.4%   4,008   22.9%   17,509 43   9,880   56.5%   3,817   21.8%   3,776   21.6%   17,473 51   8,299   47.7%   4,957   28.5%   4,131   23.8%   17,387 35   7,595   46.8%   5,143   31.7%   3,480   21.5%   16,218 41   7,100   44.1%   6,190   38.4%   2,810   17.5%   16,100 32   6,425   45.7%   4,435   31.6%   3,188   22.7%   14,048 34   7,877   59.6%   1,779   13.5%   3,568   27.0%   13,224 29   6,159   54.1%   2,361   20.7%   2,871   25.2%   11,391 44   6,558   62.2%   1,801   17.1%   2,183   20.7%   10,542 40   4,754   60.5%   1,474   18.8%   1,633   20.8%   7,861 756,217   42.9%   600,833   34.1%   406,868   23.1%   1,763,918

non atlas colors


The margin in CA-21 has shrunk Dems only have a slight lead now. Democrats should be concerned about CA-49 considering that Reps have a large lead compared to the primary when it was R +1. Republicans are also looking good in Orange County as well as the competitive districts CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-49. Republicans are also turning out well in CA-3, CA-7, CA-10, CA-24, CA-36 and CA-52 Also, Latinos are not turning out well so far as evidenced by low vote totals in Los Angeles congressional districts.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

Saying it's possible doesn't really sound skeptical...

[Tender Branson]

Early voting is tapering off a bit in TN.

During the first few days, TN had about 85-90% of the 2016 early voting turnout.

This is now down to about 75% of the 2016 numbers, incl. yesterdays numbers.

But while rural counties had a huge drop in early voting yesterday, big urban counties like Davidson remained almost unchanged compared with previous days ...

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Early voting is tapering off a bit in TN.

During the first few days, TN had about 85-90% of the 2016 early voting turnout.

This is now down to about 75% of the 2016 numbers, incl. yesterdays numbers.

But while rural counties had a huge drop in early voting yesterday, big urban counties like Davidson remained almost unchanged compared with previous days ...

This sounds exactly like what is happening in NV...

[Gustaf]

Do I remember correctly that young non-whites tend to register as Indies a lot more?

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL EV + absentee: The % gap between D and R returns fell from 3.21% end Friday to 2.96% end Saturday. (Absolute # in gap increased from 65,145 to 75,676.)

2,558,850 votes have now been cast.

R: 1,091,203 (42.6%)
D: 1,015,527 (39.7%)
Other: 15,901 (0.6%)
NPA: 436,219 (17.0%)

[SCNCmod]

What are the chances that Dems get 60% of the (NPA/Ind) vote in Missouri, NV & AZ?   

[KingSweden]

Do I remember correctly that young non-whites tend to register as Indies a lot more?

Yes, though younger whites tend to register that way more than older whites,
Too.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

FL EV + absentee: The % gap between D and R returns fell from 3.21% end Friday to 2.96% end Saturday. (Absolute # in gap increased from 65,145 to 75,676.)

2,558,850 votes have now been cast.

R: 1,091,203 (42.6%)
D: 1,015,527 (39.7%)
Other: 15,901 (0.6%)
NPA: 436,219 (17.0%)

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1056547539040780288

Gap probably closes by another 0.15 to 0.2%.

[GP270watch]

Really hope we have the vote pickup in Broward and Palm Beach today with Sunday voting events after Church.

Republicans are getting out the vote in Florida. Democrats need to step it up.

[2016]

Republicans are probably feeling a bit better in FL. Yesterday was a big Day for Democrats and they didn't make the most of it and so is today.

If Republicans still leading by tomorrow Morning and can withstand the Democratic Weekend Surge they're in decent shape.

All these Polls having Nelson/Gillum ahead by 6,7,8 Points are essentially a miss at this Point.

[Xing]

Absentees have been added for Clark, Democrats gained another 150 votes or so. Statewide lead is just shy of 8K now. Ralston is saying that a 40K lead in Clark, while difficult, is not impossible. He expects turnout to be low today, but to go up near the end of next week.

[Gass3268]

Republicans only have a 2.81% lead in FL. Very weak lead for them compared to 2014. Especially when NPA's are between 55-45 to 60-40 Democratic (most young people and Puerto Ricans register as NPA's).

[2016]

Republicans only have a 2.81% lead in FL. Very weak lead for them compared to 2014. Especially when NPA's are between 55-45 to 60-40 Democratic (most young people and Puerto Ricans register as NPA's).

Republicans will have the biggest "GOTV Machine" on Wednesday when Trump will be in the State. You still underestimate Trumps GOTV credentials.

[Gass3268]

Republicans only have a 2.81% lead in FL. Very weak lead for them compared to 2014. Especially when NPA's are between 55-45 to 60-40 Democratic (most young people and Puerto Ricans register as NPA's).

Republicans will have the biggest "GOTV Machine" on Wednesday when Trump will be in the State. You still underestimate Trumps GOTV credentials.

Senator Roy Moore and Congressman Rick Saccone agree.

[GP270watch]

 A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

[here2view]

Republicans only have a 2.81% lead in FL. Very weak lead for them compared to 2014. Especially when NPA's are between 55-45 to 60-40 Democratic (most young people and Puerto Ricans register as NPA's).

Republicans will have the biggest "GOTV Machine" on Wednesday when Trump will be in the State. You still underestimate Trumps GOTV credentials.

Senator Roy Moore and Congressman Rick Saccone agree.

[colincb]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

Saying it's possible doesn't really sound skeptical...

I think Ralston's being conservative on the 35K benchmark for Clark (Las Vegas) given that the second week of early voting is usually 25% higher and that 40K is achievable given the current pace. May not happen until Friday which is by far the biggest day historically, but seems to be in reach. I'm actually feeling bullish on NV compared to any other possible flip.

[IceSpear]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

Saying it's possible doesn't really sound skeptical...

I think Ralston's being conservative on the 35K benchmark for Clark (Las Vegas) given that the second week of early voting is usually 25% higher and that 40K is achievable given the current pace. May not happen until Friday which is by far the biggest day historically, but seems to be in reach. I'm actually feeling bullish on NV compared to any other possible flip.

Bold. I'm still thinking Tennessee and Texas flip before Nevada.

[Gass3268]

Looking at Ralston's blog post, I did not realize that the Democrats have a strong chance of a super majority in both bodies. That would be excellent.

[psychprofessor]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.