Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[junior chįmp]

People need to quit freaking out about the Early Vote. Have faith in the fundamentals, national enviorment, and special election results not noise like this.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

Those numbers are fantastic for Walker, who relies more on Waukesha and similar counties and doesn't need the Obama-Trump rurals.

[ON Progressive]

I checked with the guy who made this graph, this does include both in-person and mail-in absentee/early vote:



https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1055551929756065794

That Milwaukee number is impressive considering they've been a little "eh" since 2012. Decent jump from yesterday too, based on the graph he posted yesterday where they were almost on the blue line.

Those numbers are fantastic for Walker, who relies more on Waukesha and similar counties and doesn't need the Obama-Trump rurals.

I know I shouldn’t take any post from a clown like you seriously, but this is more for people who aren’t braindead (unlike you) that believe Walker is particularly strong in WOW.

2010 Ron Johnson: 70.97% in Waukesha, 74.66% in Washington, 68.47% in Ozaukee (won by 4.84%)
2010 Scott Walker: 71.49% in Waukesha, 74.99% in Washington, 68.88% in Ozaukee (won by 5.77%)

Walker actually did relatively worse than Johnson in WOW when you consider Walker did nearly a full point better statewide.

[Coastal Elitist]

California update: 1,519,436 ballots have been returned as of 10/25

Democrats: 647,878 43%
Republicans: 519,466 34%
Other: 352,092 23%

competitive districts:
         Democrats-Republicans-Other  - Total
24   22,121   38.5%   22,129   38.5%   13,277   23.1%   57,527
4   14,862   31.4%   22,302   47.2%   10,133   21.4%   47,297
48   14,124   30.9%   21,586   47.2%   9,988   21.9%   45,698
45   13,502   30.2%   21,056   47.1%   10,188   22.8%   44,746
49   14,773   33.3%   19,132   43.1%   10,446   23.6%   44,351
7   16,249   39.8%   15,518   38.0%   9,108   22.3%   40,875
10   13,535   40.5%   13,780   41.3%   6,068   18.2%   33,383
39   8,364   30.1%   13,422   48.2%   6,038   21.7%   27,824
25   8,942   34.8%   11,098   43.2%   5,624   21.9%   25,664
21   7,258   43.4%   6,231   37.2%   3,244   19.4%   16,733

[Adam Griffin]

Can the mods please ban any further discussion about NV in this thread thanks

[wbrocks67]

People need to quit freaking out about the Early Vote. Have faith in the fundamentals, national enviorment, and special election results not noise like this.

Yeah, it doesn't make sense to me that the rurals would be asleep for the last 1-2 years of specials and the 2017 election yet all of a sudden when it counts, the rurals wake up and the Dems that were angry just fall off.

[Brittain33]

If you all want a good laugh, look up Larry Schweikart on twitter, he’s a self-described analyst who believe there’s a 10% chance Obama goes to jail for reasons only he and the Republicans can conjure up. He’s trying to make the case that the Democrats are going to get massacred in Nevada because their early voting is short of their 2016 numbers, despite the fact 2016 was a presidential year and that comparing presidential elections to midterms is one of the dumbest things you could do. What’s even funnier is that the MAGAts are taking him 100% seriously and keep citing him in reply’s to Nate Cohn and GCM. Lmao.

I remember Larry Schweikart bragging on FreeRepublic in 2006 that Ken Blackwell was going to defeat Ted Strickland based on his experience canvassing in Hamilton County.

[Brittain33]

Can the mods please ban any further discussion about NV in this thread thanks

You're going to need to find better data and a Ralston in a different state to steer this car somewhere else.

[Brittain33]

California update: 1,519,436 ballots have been returned as of 10/25

Democrats: 647,878 43%
Republicans: 519,466 34%
Other: 352,092 23%

competitive districts:
         Democrats-Republicans-Other  - Total
21   7,258   43.4%   6,231   37.2%   3,244   19.4%   16,733

This is a different story from the primary, isn't it. Also Dems showing strength (or Republicans showing weakness) in 10.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

[KingSweden]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Granted I’d like to see what the weekend/second week push looks like

[bilaps]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

[bilaps]

People need to quit freaking out about the Early Vote. Have faith in the fundamentals, national enviorment, and special election results not noise like this.

Special election results in comparison with early vote actual data in state like NV? Give me a break. Other is far more important at this point.

Also Florida update.

VBM now has Republicans by 60k. But in person early vote also has Republicans ahead now by around 1000 votes.

Either there is huuuuuge crossover vote and independents breaking heavily for Dems either polls are very wrong.

[Xing]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

He said today that a firewall of 30K should make Democrats feel “comfortable”, while 35K should make them feel “good.” Neither is a guarantee that they’ll win, and it also probably depends on what happens in other counties.

[bilaps]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

He said today that a firewall of 30K should make Democrats feel “comfortable”, while 35K should make them feel “good.” Neither is a guarantee that they’ll win, and it also probably depends on what happens in other counties.

If that's true he's moving the goalposts. This isn't what he said couple days ago or what I read this morning on his blog.

[Gass3268]

People need to quit freaking out about the Early Vote. Have faith in the fundamentals, national enviorment, and special election results not noise like this.

Special election results in comparison with early vote actual data in state like NV? Give me a break. Other is far more important at this point.

Also Florida update.

VBM now has Republicans by 60k. But in person early vote also has Republicans ahead now by around 1000 votes.

Either there is huuuuuge crossover vote and independents breaking heavily for Dems either polls are very wrong.

Democrats and NPAs are outpacing 2014, while Republicans are a bit under. Democrats cut the Republican lead down to 2.8% yesterday. Personally I feel pretty good about Florida.

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055821434436702208

[bilaps]

I disagree, but we'll see. I don't see the early vote trending that way.

[ON Progressive]

2016 should prove early vote in FL means nothing. Also, Dems did better on e-day than in early vote in the special elections in Florida this cycle.

[Xing]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

He said today that a firewall of 30K should make Democrats feel “comfortable”, while 35K should make them feel “good.” Neither is a guarantee that they’ll win, and it also probably depends on what happens in other counties.

If that's true he's moving the goalposts. This isn't what he said couple days ago or what I read this morning on his blog.

I didn’t see his most recent post. He mentioned the numbers I brought up last night. He said that 30K would make Republicans satisfied with their efforts, but that no one could feel confident. I guess he’s also not completely sure what will happen. All we can say for sure is that Democrats got a lead over the weekend, and it’s been largely a draw since then, with Republicans perhaps gaining a few hundred votes.

[MT Treasurer]

If Heller ends up winning in a Democratic wave, maybe Atlas meme magic does work, after all.

[Brittain33]

If Heller ends up winning in a Democratic wave, maybe Atlas meme magic does work, after all.

I won't believe it unless Heller wins *and* Barb's vaunted oppo research reveals Wexton is a pedophile.

[Xing]

If Heller ends up winning in a Democratic wave, maybe Atlas meme magic does work, after all.

I won't believe it unless Heller wins *and* Barb's vaunted oppo research reveals Wexton is a pedophile.

Tester would also have to win in a landslide.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TargetSmart has updated early vote data. There is better/more complete data for a lot of states now, but I will focus on TX:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/index.html

The TX data looks pretty bad to me for Beto.



The big problem is not per se just that there are more modeled Rs than Ds - you would expect that regardless in TX. The problem, however, is that there are not that many Infrequent Voters or Never voted, and that there is no Dem lead with them (there is a slight lead with "Never voted," but that group is so small that it makes little difference). Even if you counted every last one of the "Modeled Unclear" as being Dem, there would still be only a slim Dem lead with Infrequent Voters/Never Voted.

Most of the people who have been early voting, even after we now have more than a million votes in, are Super Voters or Frequent Voters, which suggests both parties are mostly getting their usual voters out, but they are just voting earlier than usual. The electorate is not really being expanded all that much, and not in a way that would clearly favor Dems. Modeled Party is not Party, and is not the same as candidate support, but it is also not all that different.

Of course, the election day voters may well be and probably will be more Dem, but if there were a sufficient surge in Dem turnout to put Beto over the top, it would be more noticeable in the early voting data as well by now.

While this is not perfectly representative and is not complete, it is bad enough to make me comfortable removing the "probably" from my name and going back to just Cruz Will Win. I might revisit this again if there is some sort of crazy unexpected surge of unlikely voters in the last few days of early voting, but there is no reason to expect there will be if a surge of unlikely voters is not already more recognizable.

But barring that sort of unexpected change, stick a fork in Beto. There was some reason for hope at the start of early voting when we saw the huge turnout on the first day of - but IMO that chance is pretty much gone at this point. Too many Rs are voting as well as Ds, and not enough new Ds are voting. The turnout will still be historically high for a midterm, and Beto should do well for a Dem in TX in a midterm year. But nonetheless, I do not see it being enough.

[Ebsy]

Do everyone a favor and ignore Targetsmart. We know from actual voting history of early voters thus far that there are actually a lot of infrequent voters.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Do everyone a favor and ignore Targetsmart. We know from actual voting history of early voters thus far that there are actually a lot of infrequent voters.

The Targetsmart data is actual voting history data. It is individual-level voter file data.