Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[bilaps]

Some rurals have reported, and Republicans gained about 1.1K counting absentees, but that’s a little less than previous days, since turnout is lower than previous days (like in Clark.) If Washoe is tied and Clark is about a 10-point win for Democrats, we’re probably looking at another draw. We’ll see.

Probably small gain for Dems, maybe couple hundred votes..

[Gass3268]

North Carolina:

Not sure how best to interpret this data considering how many Demosaurs there are in the South

If Dems win anything in NC it'll just be icing on the cake anyway.

Pretty sure they are going to flip the Supreme Court seat due to Republican greed.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055645858081923073

GOP finally eeked out a narrow win in Washoe today. Expected it much sooner than this.

Interested to see how Democrats did in Clark today.

[Ebsy]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

Rural turnout is pretty in line with turnout in 2010. 2014 had abysmal turnout across the board.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055645858081923073

GOP finally eeked out a narrow win in Washoe today. Expected it much sooner than this.

Interested to see how Democrats did in Clark today.

Yeah, Rosen is winning this election.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055645858081923073

GOP finally eeked out a narrow win in Washoe today. Expected it much sooner than this.

Interested to see how Democrats did in Clark today.

I think I read this morning from Ralston that the Republicans up there were so concerned with the returns that they organized a GOTV rally for today.

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055645858081923073

GOP finally eeked out a narrow win in Washoe today. Expected it much sooner than this.

Interested to see how Democrats did in Clark today.

I think I read this morning from Ralston that the Republicans up there were so concerned with the returns that they organized a GOTV rally for today.

Yeah I saw that too

[Xing]

Yeah, Democrats need a pretty good day in Clark for today not to be a bad day for them, but assuming they get 2K, we're probably not going to see that much of a gain for Republicans. It is frustrating to see that so many people are excited to give Trump more rubber stamps, but that's generally how the cult mentality works.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Democrats need a pretty good day in Clark for today not to be a bad day for them, but assuming they get 2K, we're probably not going to see that much of a gain for Republicans. It is frustrating to see that so many people are excited to give Trump more rubber stamps, but that's generally how the cult mentality works.

I'm more irritated that this is just more fuel for Trump's Red Wave hysteria, even though the Dem advantage is inevitably going to be larger by the time EV concludes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

You're really getting on my goddamn nerves here. AZ, IN, MT, and TX are Republican states, which I think you've obviously forgotten. Besides, those red state Dem candidates are ALL relying on crossover support from Republicans to win their elections, so what makes you think they're voting strictly on party lines?

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

You're really getting on my goddamn nerves here. AZ, IN, MT, and TX are Republican states, which I think you've obviously forgotten, and Republicans usually do well in Florida early voting.

Two of those states have dem senators in them that looked in good shape for months now. Tester is probably fine cause Montana is purplish down ballot but what about Donnelly? Most pundits thought he was a safer dem with polling reflecting it yet now he is looking at a potentially massive EV hole. Or how about AZ? Sinema looked like our best recruit and McSally has run a bleh campaign yet she is looking at a possible 100k EV edge.

[Gass3268]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

The most energized people to vote in 2018 are older college educated white democrats. Nevada doesn't exactly have many of those, so that's why dems are having trouble beating repubs in turnout here.

This isn’t just Nevada. It’s across the board in AZ, FL, IN, MT, and Texas

You're really getting on my goddamn nerves here. AZ, IN, MT, and TX are Republican states, which I think you've obviously forgotten, and Republicans usually do well in Florida early voting.

Two of those states have dem senators in them that looked in good shape for months now. Tester is probably fine cause Montana is purplish down ballot but what about Donnelly? Most pundits thought he was a safer dem with polling reflecting it yet now he is looking at a potentially massive EV hole. Or how about AZ? Sinema looked like our best recruit and McSally has run a bleh campaign yet she is looking at a possible 100k EV edge.

Like the AZ-06 special, Sinema is gonna need to flip a good chunk of registered Republicans in order to  even get it close. The goal there should be to just keep reducing the margin.

[IceSpear]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

Uh, Trump's "garbage" is what's making them turn out hard...lol.

[bilaps]

Let's see those Clark numbers but all in all Republicans are doing their job so far in NV

[Hindsight was 2020]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

Uh, Trump's "garbage" is what's making them turn out hard...lol.

That hasn’t been the case in VA-Gov, AL-Sen, or PA-18. There was noticeable rural drop off

[Virginiá]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

Uh, Trump's "garbage" is what's making them turn out hard...lol.

He's been remarkably good at keep his base together, but it has come at a price. Senate aside (which was always a long shot from day 1), they are on track to lose the House, upwards of a dozen state legislative chambers and Democrats actually have a reasonable shot at 10 - 13 gov offices. The election is looking pretty bad for Republicans, Senate be damned.

I'm convinced now that the only plausible event that will put a dent in the resolve of his supporters is a moderate or worse recession - something his supporters actually feel. Historically speaking, this is one thing that has always hurt even popular presidents. And if it happens in late 2019 or early 2020, there will be no time to recover before the presidential election.

[IceSpear]

This sh*t is just frustrating man. After all of Trump’s garbage how are rural areas turning out this hard

Uh, Trump's "garbage" is what's making them turn out hard...lol.

That hasn’t been the case in VA-Gov, AL-Sen, or PA-18. There was noticeable rural drop off

This is the VA-Gov swing map from 2013 to 2017, going from D+3 to D+9 statewide:



And here's the Alabama swing map from 2012 to 2017, going from R+4 to D+2 statewide. Look at all those rural counties where Moore did way better than he did in 2012 even after being exposed as a pedophile.

[Storr]

North Carolina:

Not sure how best to interpret this data considering how many Demosaurs there are in the South

There are a few, North Carolina is weird. In 2016 it voted for Trump, reelected a Republican Senator, but also threw out an incumbent Republican Governor. But I can tell you Democrats are very energized in the state. Democrats overall are fired up about the blatant power grab the Republican legislature made after Roy Cooper was elected in 2016 (removing some of the Governor's appointment powers and giving it to themselves. NC already has one of the weakest Governor's offices in the country). Democrats are very enthusiastic about at least taking away the Republican supermajority in the legislature. They only need four and six seats (out of 50 and 120 in each) in each house to do so. The three or four vulnerable GOP House seats, across the state with one in suburban Charlotte, Greensboro, and Raleigh each, are another fuel for Democratic enthusiasm.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If you all want a good laugh, look up Larry Schweikart on twitter, he’s a self-described analyst who believe there’s a 10% chance Obama goes to jail for reasons only he and the Republicans can conjure up. He’s trying to make the case that the Democrats are going to get massacred in Nevada because their early voting is short of their 2016 numbers, despite the fact 2016 was a presidential year and that comparing presidential elections to midterms is one of the dumbest things you could do. What’s even funnier is that the MAGAts are taking him 100% seriously and keep citing him in reply’s to Nate Cohn and GCM. Lmao.

[NOVA Green]

OREGON UPDATE--- 10/25/18:

Here is where we are at of this morning's SoS update of total ballots returned by Party with a TOTAL turnout to date of 8.7%:



Now, let's look at the numbers by Oregon RV by Party in a VBM and AVR State:



Now, let's look at the EV to date:



Democrats appear to have an astounding, and virtually unprecedented EV lead to date....

Now, let's look at the Turnout differential to date (% of TOTAL  RV vs EV BY PARTY TO DATE)



Now, let's look at the Binary (Two-Party Returned Ballots by Party to Date by County).



This is actually a pretty astounding map for Multiple reasons:

1.) DEM leads in JACKSON and DESCHUTES, and MARION.

These are all major population centers in Downstate Oregon.

Sure, it could be that it is mainly just DEMS in places like Ashland, Bend, and Salem voting early, skewing these numbers.

2.) DEM leads in COOS, TILLAMOOK, and COLUMBIA

*** Some of this might be explained by Ancestral DEMS that have maintained their Party REG in these WWC former Union strongholds. ***

It is still noteworthy, however.

3.) These numbers don't tell the entire story, considering that currently PUBs only hold a + 10 TV lead in POLK and a + 7 TV lead in WASCO.

4.) PUBS must be most worried about CLACKAMAS, considering that DEMS are currently at 45.3% of TV Ballots returned to date vs 33.8% of TV Ballots returned to date by Registered PUBs.

Sure it could just be DEM strongholds in NW ClackCo jumping in early, and the Rurals and Exurban 'Pub areas jumping in later, but still worthy of mention.

5.) I'm starting to wonder to what extent Buehler is taking some hits from Evangelicals considering his support for Female Reproductive Rights during the May '18 OR-GOV Primary, and current political positioning.

Another Anti-Abortion measure is on the Ballot in Oregon, which is one of the most pro-choice states in the Union, and especially in light of his attempt to pivot centrist, will weigh on the minds of many voters after the recent Supreme Court Nomination battle....

Here's a link to a few maps I posted on "Culture War" Ballot Measures in Oregon over the decades...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288717.50

Now, let's look at a map of OR-MAY '18 GOV PUB PRIMARY performance by County.



Look at a map of OR-MAY '18 GOV DEM PRIMARY performance by County (Hint: Ancestral DEMs stand out here).



6.) Now, in many parts of "Downstate Oregon", there are a significant number of Seniors, as Younger folks leave their communities for the "Big Cities" within the region.

We had a Special Election in Oregon on 1/23/18, (Ballot Measure #101) which was a relatively low turnout affair to protect the Oregon Health Plan, regardless of Republican attempts to gut the program.

This was an item where there was a much higher % of Seniors than average as an overall composition of the electorate.

Approves temporary assessments to fund health care for low-income individuals and families, and to stabilize
health insurance premiums. Temporary assessments on insurance companies, some hospitals, and other providers
of insurance or health care coverage. Insurers may not increase rates on health insurance premiums by more than
1.5 percent as a result of these assessments

I couldn't easily find the map I generated by County, but here's the link to the official OR SoS PDF by County.

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Documents/results/january-2018-results.pdf

How to continue to provide updates from OR....

NoVA GREEN

[Xing]

Democrats won by almost exactly the same margin in Clark, 44.7-35.1, a net gain of 2.2K votes. Probably not quite enough to offset the EV/absentee vote from the rurals and Washoe, but enough to avoid losing much ground. They'll probably still end up above 3K ahead statewide once all of the rurals are in.

I'd say the best hope for Democrats is if it turns out like 2010, where Democrats get a really strong late push, and run up the margin in Clark, while keeping Washoe to a tie.

[henster]

If you all want a good laugh, look up Larry Schweikart on twitter, he’s a self-described analyst who believe there’s a 10% chance Obama goes to jail for reasons only he and the Republicans can conjure up. He’s trying to make the case that the Democrats are going to get massacred in Nevada because their early voting is short of their 2016 numbers, despite the fact 2016 was a presidential year and that comparing presidential elections to midterms is one of the dumbest things you could do. What’s even funnier is that the MAGAts are taking him 100% seriously and keep citing him in reply’s to Nate Cohn and GCM. Lmao.

https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/973744127480283136

https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/928004093930487808

https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/940046581201436672