Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Xing]

As long as Democrats keep adding about 2,000 to their lead in Clark each day I'll be happy. Also I imagine this next weekend is going to be big.

Yeah, there's also often a late push for Democrats in Clark near the end of the early voting period. Right now, it's a little closer than I would like (we'll see what happens), but I'd rather be Rosen than Heller.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current D lead in Clark (so called firewall) is 12,5k

Current statewide lead 4400 but it will come down after absentees from Nye are distributed and when they update other rurals still missing from yesterday (most notably Nye and Lyon).

Numbers to hit according to Ralston are 35k and 15k

I'm thinking that Rs could win the day today in Washoe.

...wait, yesterday it was 4200 before the rurals and then the rurals brought it down to like the mid 3000s. If today is 4400 before the rurals it basically means Democrats' lead is basically unchanged. And unchanged in raw terms means it shrunk in % terms. This is very, very concerning honestly.

[bilaps]

Current D lead in Clark (so called firewall) is 12,5k

Current statewide lead 4400 but it will come down after absentees from Nye are distributed and when they update other rurals still missing from yesterday (most notably Nye and Lyon).

Numbers to hit according to Ralston are 35k and 15k

I'm thinking that Rs could win the day today in Washoe.

...wait, yesterday it was 4200 before the rurals and then the rurals brought it down to like the mid 3000s. If today is 4400 before the rurals it basically means Democrats' lead is basically unchanged. And unchanged in raw terms means it shrunk in % terms. This is very, very concerning honestly.

Most rurals are in, but two solid counties aren't yet. But basicaly with this turnout in the rurals and absentees that are coming, almost all Clark lead is erased. Especialy because Dems didn't win Washoe yesterday. Dems will have an edge I think if we count only yesterdays votes but not by much. Also absentees are updated in a weird way, like randomly, not at the end of the day always so it's not easy to follow it day by day.

In the meantime while I was typing Lyon county did came in and almost all rurals are now in, maybe there will be around 100-200 votes for Rs from Nye and the lead is now 3910. So take 100,200 more from that and you have it around 3700. Also not in the count are those mistery as Ralston call it absentees from Nye where are 1700 absentees which will break heavily Republican when they designate it so total advantage for Dems is more probably around 3200 max.

[Xing]

Current D lead in Clark (so called firewall) is 12,5k

Current statewide lead 4400 but it will come down after absentees from Nye are distributed and when they update other rurals still missing from yesterday (most notably Nye and Lyon).

Numbers to hit according to Ralston are 35k and 15k

I'm thinking that Rs could win the day today in Washoe.

...wait, yesterday it was 4200 before the rurals and then the rurals brought it down to like the mid 3000s. If today is 4400 before the rurals it basically means Democrats' lead is basically unchanged. And unchanged in raw terms means it shrunk in % terms. This is very, very concerning honestly.

Most rurals are in, but two solid counties aren't yet. But basicaly with this turnout in the rurals and absentees that are coming, almost all Clark lead is erased. Especialy because Dems didn't win Washoe yesterday. Dems will have an edge I think if we count only yesterdays votes but not by much. Also absentees are updated in a weird way, like randomly, not at the end of the day always so it's not easy to follow it day by day.

In the meantime while I was typing Lyon county did came in and almost all rurals are now in, maybe there will be around 100-200 votes for Rs from Nye and the lead is now 3910. So take 100,200 more from that and you have it around 3700. Also not in the count are those mistery as Ralston call it absentees from Nye where are 1700 absentees which will break heavily Republican when they designate it so total advantage for Dems is more probably around 3200 max.

Actually, the mystery Nye absentees are in, 400+ GOP, so the overall statewide advantage is 3.3K for the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

[bilaps]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

 

How could it not be? Numbers don't lie.

[2016]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

[Xing]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

[Gass3268]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Then why are Democrats more confident and Republicans not?

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1055453434286166016

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Then why are Democrats more confident and Republicans not?

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1055453434286166016

Complacency, which I have warned about many times in this darn forum. C'mon. The numbers don't lie, period. Confidence is just a feeling one has...not backed up by any cold hard facts.

[Pandaguineapig]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

He also guaranteed a 4 point Clinton win because of muh HISPANIC SURGE™, so take what he says through a certain lense

[Virginiá]

Complacency, which I have warned about many times in this darn forum. C'mon. The numbers don't lie, period. Confidence is just a feeling one has...not backed up by any cold hard facts.

Concern trolling over incomplete data is something worth warning about too.

[IceSpear]

Clearly it is great news for the incumbent Republican Senator that more Democrats are voting than Republicans. #analysis

[Gass3268]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

He also guaranteed a 4 point Clinton win because of muh HISPANIC SURGE™, so take what he says through a certain lense

He then admitted he was wrong and missed the Trump surge in the outer Tampa area and that there was no way to forecast what was going to happen on election day.

Also I've noticed that the partisan breakdown (R+3) is pretty close to what a lot of the polling samples are. This makes sense as NDA's (Puerto Ricans and young people) lean fairly strong to Democrats in Florida.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

TX early vote data is updated for day 3. The graphs below are for in person voting only.


First, here is Day 3 in 2018 as compared to yesterday (Day 2 in 2018):



There was a decrease in all counties, but it seems to have been a bigger decrease in some counties than others. The biggest drops seem to have been in the Dallas area - Dallas County, Tarrant, and Collin. Much less of a drop in Denton County (University of North Texas students still voting?). Proportionally, there also seem to have been a bit larger than average drops (relative to the overall size of the county) in Williamson (North Austin suburbs), Lubbock (Texas Tech), and Ellis (R South Dallas exurbs). Other counties like Travis (Austin) and Bexar (San Antonio) seem to be holding up a bit better so far. Turnout didn't drop much in Harris (Houston). That is probably, I would guess, because of the voter suppression (polls are only open until 4:30 each day) - probably people who would otherwise have voted on Day 1 or Day 2 but didn't because the hours were too short are voting on Day 3 instead.



Second, here is Day 3 2018 as compared to Day 3 2016:



Turnout was lower than 2016 basically everywhere - except for Nueces (Corpus Christi). Something or other interesting must be going ton there to get there to be such high turnout, but no idea what that is. Relatively, it seems like Bexar, Travis, El Paso, and Nueces held up a bit better than other counties, relatively. That suggests good Hispanic turnout, if true. On the other hand, Cameron and Hidalgo (South Texas) look a bit worse, relatively in comparison to those.

This is probably an early indicator that while turnout will still be insanely high for a midterm, we are not going to match 2016.



Thirdly, while turnout does look like it will end up lower than 2016, it is still completely insane as compared to 2014, which is really the fairer comparison:



Here is the % increase in each county's Day 3 turnout as compared to 2014. El Paso really stands out as being MUCH higher than 2014. Other counties with notably larger than average increases relative to 2014 are Denton, Williamson, Nueces, Travis, and Fort Bend:

Harris   204%
Dallas   215%
Tarrant   176%
Bexar   146%
Travis   250%
Collin      233%
Denton   251%
El Paso   343%
Fort Bend   248%
Hidalgo   124%
Montgomery   185%
Williamson   250%
Galveston   208%
Nueces   251%
Cameron   194%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

[Gass3268]

Another better day for Democrats in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1055525820096118784

Total was +11.7% Republican.

[IceSpear]

Rosen is still probably going to win and AZ is still a toss up, but it is true that these EV numbers aren't really consistent with any kind of massive Democratic tidal wave. Not that I ever thought that would happen to begin with.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

Oh come on. We have seen a clear pattern throughout these days, even if there are minor fluctuations from day to day. You know I'm not a concern troll, but at some point you have to take a serious look at the data.

[Dr. Arch]

Rosen is still probably going to win and AZ is still a toss up, but it is true that these EV numbers aren't really consistent with any kind of massive Democratic tidal wave. Not that I ever thought that would happen to begin with.

It is also possible that the states we're seeing are different and 'locked in' to a certain maxed out margin for Ds, while more swingy states (like WI) will be erratically different from 2014 or 2016.

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

Oh come on. We have seen a clear pattern throughout these days, even if there are minor fluctuations from day to day. You know I'm not a concern troll, but at some point you have to take a serious look at the data.

That is a serious look at the data. Read my response again.

[Gass3268]

Democrats are starting to push for folks with absentee ballots to get theirs in:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055529074355916800