Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[2016]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

Even though their % lead dropped.

That AZ Guy acting like every GOP Female Voter would vote for Sinema. Highly unlikely.

[Gass3268]

Old retired Democrats are pissed off!

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055184595874910216

[Devout Centrist]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

Even though their % lead dropped.

That AZ Guy acting like every GOP Female Voter would vote for Sinema. Highly unlikely.

That 20 point Republican mail-in lead for Debbie Lesko turned into a 5-point margin of victory...if the same thing happens statewide, it’ll be a 5-point victory for Sinema.

[Ebsy]

If you look at precinct results in Arizona, either in 2016 or the recent special election, it is pretty clear that Clinton/Tipirmeni obtained majorities among unaffiliated voter and also got a decent sized chunk of GOP registered voters in some suburban areas.

[bilaps]

2. I can't calculate that exactly, but I know that Democrats had a 75K lead in Clark in 2016, and a 25K lead in 2010.

...that's at the end of early voting, right? If they had a 25K lead AT THIS POINT in 2010 then we're royally screwed.

Pretty sure he means end of the early vote cycle.

Yes, at the end of the cycle my apologies for not making that clearer. Democrats have a 10K advantage overall in Clark, so they're definitely on their way to beat the 2010 number, though some of that could be due to population growth.

2010 number can't be much relevant cause voter registration skyrocketed since then. Ralston said that they need 30k+ firewall in Clark.

[SCNCmod]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

The total Independents were around 270,000.  If Republicans are up by 75,000 (not factoring in that Simena is likely to get more Republican votes ... than McSally would get Dems)

....Then to make up that 75k, Dems need 63% of Independents.

What % of Independants to Dems typically get?

[2016]

If you look at precinct results in Arizona, either in 2016 or the recent special election, it is pretty clear that Clinton/Tipirmeni obtained majorities among unaffiliated voter and also got a decent sized chunk of GOP registered voters in some suburban areas.

You can't compare a Special Election vs a General Election.

And the big reason Hillary Clinton for starters obtained more Republican Crossover Votes at Precinct Level Results in 2016 is that Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio was on the Ballot and a good chunk of the GOP wanted him out too, not just Democrats. That's the Main Reason AZ was close in the first place.

[Ebsy]

Actually, I can compare it lol. In fact, I did!

[Gass3268]

Democrats have caught up to where they were on this day in Iowa in 2014, even with 10 days of early voting removed by the Republican legislature. Republicans are still behind.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1055187849354625030

[2016]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

The total Independents were around 270,000.  If Republicans are up by 75,000 (not factoring in that Simena is likely to get more Republican votes ... than McSally would get Dems)

....Then to make up that 75k, Dems need 63% of Independents.

What % of Independants to Dems typically get?

Democrats will not get 60+% of Indies you can bank on that.

[Pandaguineapig]

NV numbers so far confirm that it's gonna be close, though the fact that Ralston isn't cheerleading Dem numbers so far like he normally does is probably a good thing for Republicans

[Politician]

Democrats have caught up to where they were on this day in Iowa in 2014, even with 10 days of early voting removed by the Republican legislature. Republicans are still behind.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1055187849354625030

RIP Rod Blum and David Young.

[Pandaguineapig]

Democrats have caught up to where they were on this day in Iowa in 2014, even with 10 days of early voting removed by the Republican legislature. Republicans are still behind.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1055187849354625030

RIP Rod Blum and David Young.

Calm down, this guy also predicted a Clinton win in Iowa in 2016

[bilaps]

He doesn't predict anything, he just cheerleads. These numbers don't mean anything.

[RI]

McDonald is a hack, end of story.

[Pandaguineapig]

He doesn't predict anything, he just cheerleads. These numbers don't mean anything.

In 2016 he "projected" states off of early voting, famous examples include predicting Ohio and Iowa for Clinton

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 10/23/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 10/20)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 39.8% of ballots returned (28.523/71.682) (+10.9%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 31.8% of ballots returned (17.495/55.015) (+10.8%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 25.9% of ballots returned (14.079/54.378) (+9.9%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 22.3% of ballots returned (7.706/34.581) (+15.3%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 30.9% of ballots returned (10.097/32.690) (+6%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 29.6% of ballots returned (8.300/28.041) (+7.1%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 42.3% of ballots returned (6.645/15.724) (+14.4%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 38.3% of ballots returned (4.373/11.428) (+16.8%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 39.4% of ballots returned (3.638/9.238) (+11.1%)

-------
Statewide: 33% of ballots returned (134.586/407.993) (+11.2%)

[Senator Incitatus]

Why are we comparing EV numbers to 2014 rather than 2006 or 2002? Is it just a question of available data?

I've seen this multiple times now. No one is actually expecting Republicans to get close to 2014 numbers. Seems like a lot of lowering of expectations going on in the Democratic cheer squad.

[libertpaulian]

Why are we comparing EV numbers to 2014 rather than 2006 or 2002? Is it just a question of available data?

I've seen this multiple times now. No one is actually expecting Republicans to get close to 2014 numbers. Seems like a lot of lowering of expectations going on in the Democratic cheer squad.

I think it's to compare how Democrats are doing this year compared to years which were Republican waves and turnout was significantly lower.

[Gass3268]

Why are we comparing EV numbers to 2014 rather than 2006 or 2002? Is it just a question of available data?

I've seen this multiple times now. No one is actually expecting Republicans to get close to 2014 numbers. Seems like a lot of lowering of expectations going on in the Democratic cheer squad.

Way too many population changes in the middle of the last decade.

[Virginiá]

You can't compare a Special Election vs a General Election.

You can when they are high turnout, and numerous Congressional special elections under Trump have had high turnout - AZ-08 was one of them. Midterm-level turnout allows you to draw those kinds of conclusions.

And the big reason Hillary Clinton for starters obtained more Republican Crossover Votes at Precinct Level Results in 2016 is that Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio was on the Ballot and a good chunk of the GOP wanted him out too, not just Democrats. That's the Main Reason AZ was close in the first place.

Proof? Anything at all?

This seems like CNN pundit-level analysis where they just randomly pick some reason to attribute to why an election happened the way it did, yet it usually ends up being wrong.

[Xing]

McDonald is a hack, end of story.

To be fair, anyone saying that these numbers must mean someone will win, rather than being suggestive of certain possibilities, is a hack.

[Brittain33]

High energy blacks voting in Jefferson County? Betomania!

Hmmm, ok I figured out Jefferson County.

The day 2 # on the Secretary of State website is an error. If you check at the Jefferson County website, you can see that 13,471 is the number of CUMULATIVE in person votes, so that includes the day 1 numbers as well. The day 2 number for Jefferson County SHOULD be 6,374, not 13,471.

https://www.jeffersonelections.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EARLY-VOTING-TURNOUT-11-06-18.pdf

Thanks for checking that.

That's brilliant.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And the big reason Hillary Clinton for starters obtained more Republican Crossover Votes at Precinct Level Results in 2016 is that Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio was on the Ballot and a good chunk of the GOP wanted him out too, not just Democrats. That's the Main Reason AZ was close in the first place.

Proof? Anything at all?

This seems like CNN pundit-level analysis where they just randomly pick some reason to attribute to why an election happened the way it did, yet it usually ends up being wrong.

The problem with 2016's analysis is that Maricopa County's swing to Clinton was hardly unique. In many other states, in similar counties (Orange County in CA, Dallas and Houston suburbs in TX, Atlanta suburbs in GA, etc), Dems made similar sorts of gains. And Joe Arapaio had nothing to do with any of that.

One can always come up with a just-so story to explain away any inconvenient fact, but if you have to start coming up with lots of special stories for explaining results everywhere, that is usually a sign that it is just a story you are telling yourself. Similarly, in 2010, Dems told themselves lots of such stories about how things were not going to be that bad. In each race, there had to be a different story, because if you looked at the overall picture and weren't pre-committed to trying to explain everything away, it didn't appear good.

[Brittain33]

If you look at precinct results in Arizona, either in 2016 or the recent special election, it is pretty clear that Clinton/Tipirmeni obtained majorities among unaffiliated voter and also got a decent sized chunk of GOP registered voters in some suburban areas.

You can't compare a Special Election vs a General Election.

Can you come up with any reason Republicans would vote for the Dem in large numbers in a special election, but not a general election a few months later? If this were AL-Sen, I would grant the point that it was weird, but Lesko was generic R and Tiperneni was "some lady" D, it was as close to a generic ballot as you can get.