Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd like to see a more systematic comparison of NV figures to previous years. So far it all sounds pretty impressionistic.

My guess would also be that 2010 is the best basis of comparison, but the big caveat is that the electorate has grown quite a bit since then. Maybe % of registered voters would be a better metric than raw votes.

[ON Progressive]

I'd like to see a more systematic comparison of NV figures to previous years. So far it all sounds pretty impressionistic.

My guess would also be that 2010 is the best basis of comparison, but the big caveat is that the electorate has grown quite a bit since then.

It's really difficult to compare this to any other year, unfortunately.

You can't compare to Presidential years for obvious reasons. You can't compare to 2014 because that was a year where the top of the ticket was a total nobody going up against an ultra-popular incumbent Republican. You can try to compare to 2010, but like you said, the state has grown a lot since then.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

I'd like to see a more systematic comparison of NV figures to previous years. So far it all sounds pretty impressionistic.

My guess would also be that 2010 is the best basis of comparison, but the big caveat is that the electorate has grown quite a bit since then. Maybe % of registered voters would be a better metric than raw votes.

2010 is an interesting case, although we don't have the partisan breakdown for those years. Dems ended Week 1 +8,800 in Clark, -125 statewide.

But the Reid machine went into overdrive on Week 2: Clark was turning out 13-18K voters daily all the way to Week 2 Sunday, then 20K+ Monday-Thursday and 34K Friday. EV ended with +23,000 in Clark and +6,500~ statewide.

With this in mind, I'm not sure the current vote totals are the worst place to be.

[bilaps]

Republicans always have an edge in mail in ballots in Nevada, so this is not exactly news. Ralston always scaremongers about the NV early vote, all the way through. Democrats are performing exactly where they need to be to win.

Lol, guy says republicans won the day in Washoe. You say they didn't, he proves it to you they did, you say, nah not important.

And you are way wrong on your two other assumptions about Ralston and Dems as well..

Total democratic lead now including early vote and absentees is 5231 vote. But, some rural counties didn't report numbers from yesterday and there are absentees that aren't counted in some counties most notably Nye where are 1700 votes already casted. So, it's safe to say that only on absentees Republicans will pickup around 600 votes total at least from Nye and Elko alone. And what small number comes from other rurals and rurals that didn't report yesterday.

[bilaps]

Florida update

VBM now 59k republicans and early vote is 5,5k democrats

Total percentage of early vote so far is 42,9 D - 40,77 R. In 2014 it was 42,4 - 39,6 and in 2016 it was 40,7-36,7.

[wbrocks67]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

Really interested to see FL #s. With first day of in person, they took GOP's overall lead down from 5.9% to 3.9%

[bilaps]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

What are you talking about?

[2016]

Florida update

VBM now 59k republicans and early vote is 5,5k democrats

Total percentage of early vote so far is 42,9 D - 40,77 R. In 2014 it was 42,4 - 39,6 and in 2016 it was 40,7-36,7.

Not a strong showing by Democrats in Florida. With all the Enthusiasm they have + 1st AA Governor Candidate 2 Days in and they lead only 108,366 to 102,899, a Difference of 5,467 Votes in Early In-Person Voting.

In Mail Ballots Republicans lead 520,307 to 461,680, a Difference of 58,627 Votes.

Overall Republicans lead by 53,160 Votes.

And YET Pollsters believe we're getting between a D + 3 to a D + 5 Electorate. Give me a Break!

[KingSweden]

I highly, highly doubt CMR loses.

Same.

[wbrocks67]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

What are you talking about?

We have to remember that Hillary only won by 20k votes. So an EV lead right now for Dems of 11k without indies is not bad if that stays throughout the entirety of EV, assuming Indies also break for Dems, which according to most polling, looks likely this year.

[Gass3268]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

What are you talking about?

We have to remember that Hillary only won by 20k votes. So an EV lead right now for Dems of 11k without indies is not bad if that stays throughout the entirety of EV, assuming Indies also break for Dems, which according to most polling, looks likely this year.

Ralston said in his morning blog post that the Clark County Dem Firewall keeps building. Up to 10,000 now. Said that Democrats would like for it to get to 40,000. This weekend will be key. Also he said that the Washoe numbers should worry Republicans, but they are doing very well in the rurals.

[ajc0918]

African American voters are 13.3% of active voters in Florida but are 15.5% if the in-person early voting so far. Good news for Gillum.

[2016]

African American voters are 13.3% of active voters in Florida but are 15.5% if the in-person early voting so far. Good news for Gillum.

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

[libertpaulian]

African American voters are 13.3% of active voters in Florida but are 15.5% if the in-person early voting so far. Good news for Gillum.

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

African-Americans are going to be energized in the general election with a young African-American on the top of the ticket than they are some old, washed-up, white Boomer.

[GP270watch]

There were Florida counties in 2016 where nearly 90% of Republican voters turned out. It ate into the big gains that Democrats get from the bigger counties and Trump turned out people everywhere else to win.

 

[KingSweden]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

What are you talking about?

We have to remember that Hillary only won by 20k votes. So an EV lead right now for Dems of 11k without indies is not bad if that stays throughout the entirety of EV, assuming Indies also break for Dems, which according to most polling, looks likely this year.

Ralston said in his morning blog post that the Clark County Dem Firewall keeps building. Up to 10,000 now. Said that Democrats would like for it to get to 40,000. This weekend will be key. Also he said that the Washoe numbers should worry Republicans, but they are doing very well in the rurals.

Got a link?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada Dems lead is at 11k now. Hillary only won by 20k votes in 2016, so that seems pretty good right now assuming Indies also break for Dems.

What are you talking about?

We have to remember that Hillary only won by 20k votes. So an EV lead right now for Dems of 11k without indies is not bad if that stays throughout the entirety of EV, assuming Indies also break for Dems, which according to most polling, looks likely this year.

Ralston said in his morning blog post that the Clark County Dem Firewall keeps building. Up to 10,000 now. Said that Democrats would like for it to get to 40,000. This weekend will be key. Also he said that the Washoe numbers should worry Republicans, but they are doing very well in the rurals.

Got a link?

Bookmark this one: https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog

[bilaps]

I don't see it going to 40k. It could change, weekend will really be the key. But republicans have done a hell of a job with absentees. I notice that Ralston also says Dems won Washoe on day 4 which is true if you count only early vote and not absentee dump, but all votes are counted the same. If I'm democrat, my biggest worry would be that Washoe goes in the opposite direction in the coming days, and that majority of democrats already voted there rather than hoping rural turnout is going to be cannibalized. Biggest hope if I'm democrat is that independents are going to break heavily for them and that they win Washoe like Hillary did in 16

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

Obama tried the same thing, and in that case it succeeded, twice.

[Brittain33]

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

Obama tried the same thing, and in that case it succeeded, twice.

Yeah, call me crazy but it could be that AA turnout % in florida may be a little higher than in 2016 with an african-American candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

Obama tried the same thing, and in that case it succeeded, twice.

Yeah, call me crazy but it could be that AA turnout % in florida may be a little higher than in 2016 with an african-American candidate.

Well, you might be crazy, but your point is still valid.

[bilaps]

After some of the rurals coming up with their update (still not all) Dem margin now is 4,2k.

[Ebsy]

"The majority of Democrats already voted" doesn't seem likely when we are still so early in the absentee period. This is usually when Republicans are at their strongest, with Democrats making gains over the second weekend through the end of early voting.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/longhornderek/status/1055128208394383361



Note that 28.9% of early voters/mail voters in the 1st day of early voting in the largest TX counties had no primary voting history.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/longhornderek/status/1055128208394383361



Note that 28.9% of early voters/mail voters in the 1st day of early voting in the largest TX counties had no primary voting history.

What would this data imply? I get the primary part, it shows that many non-voters are coming into the election, but what about the ages? What was it like in 2016/2014?