Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[wbrocks67]

And in addition to the favorable party registration of early voters in NV, Rs are cannibalizing more to get their increased early vote, whereas Dems are bringing out more new/unlikely voters. It doesn't take a genius to see who is going to win this one.

Wonder if this will hold for other states. AKA Republicans cannibalizing their vote and just turning out their regular Rs, while Dems bringing out their regular Ds AND new/unlikely voters

[wbrocks67]

Iowa
Dems +33.7k statewide

D+14.7k in CD-01
D+16.8k in CD-02
D+11.9k in CD-03
R+9.7k in CD-04 (RIP Scholten)

The respective party leads in each district have grown considerably since last week.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

Compared to 2016 this represents slightly improved numbers for Dems in the 3rd and 4th districts, slightly worse in the 2nd, and almost exactly equivalent by % in the 1st.

Considering 2016 was awful for Ds, doesn't that bode... not well?

[DaWN]

Iowa
Dems +33.7k statewide

D+14.7k in CD-01
D+16.8k in CD-02
D+11.9k in CD-03
R+9.7k in CD-04 (RIP Scholten)

The respective party leads in each district have grown considerably since last week.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

Compared to 2016 this represents slightly improved numbers for Dems in the 3rd and 4th districts, slightly worse in the 2nd, and almost exactly equivalent by % in the 1st.

Considering 2016 was awful for Ds, doesn't that bode... not well?

Presidential turnout ≠ midterm turnout

[wbrocks67]

Iowa
Dems +33.7k statewide

D+14.7k in CD-01
D+16.8k in CD-02
D+11.9k in CD-03
R+9.7k in CD-04 (RIP Scholten)

The respective party leads in each district have grown considerably since last week.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

Compared to 2016 this represents slightly improved numbers for Dems in the 3rd and 4th districts, slightly worse in the 2nd, and almost exactly equivalent by % in the 1st.

Considering 2016 was awful for Ds, doesn't that bode... not well?

Presidential turnout ≠ midterm turnout

Then why are we even comparing to 2016

[Hindsight was 2020]

Cannot believe I got $850 worth of Heller No on that website for 48c a pop, lmfao

God Predictit is on a roll right now. Get this they had Sinema yes up 54-49 the other dy but is now 60-40 yes for McSally because of the OH poll. Also Donnelly is also trading at no 49-51 despite back to back A rated pollsters having him up

[DaWN]

Iowa
Dems +33.7k statewide

D+14.7k in CD-01
D+16.8k in CD-02
D+11.9k in CD-03
R+9.7k in CD-04 (RIP Scholten)

The respective party leads in each district have grown considerably since last week.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

Compared to 2016 this represents slightly improved numbers for Dems in the 3rd and 4th districts, slightly worse in the 2nd, and almost exactly equivalent by % in the 1st.

Considering 2016 was awful for Ds, doesn't that bode... not well?

Presidential turnout ≠ midterm turnout

Then why are we even comparing to 2016

We shouldn't.

[Gass3268]

THIS IS NOT EARLY VOTE NUMBERS!!!

Here are new New York State Board of Elections stats by Congressional Districts (from pre-primary (April) to pre-election):

https://twitter.com/ndhapple/status/1058051926846291970

https://twitter.com/ndhapple/status/1058053950560182273

https://twitter.com/ndhapple/status/1058054644973404161

[Brittain33]

I am shocked that Dems have a registration advantage in NY-2.

[Virginiá]

@NOVA what does the OR legislature look like? Any gains for Democrats you think are likely?

[Gass3268]

Democrats won early vote yesterday in Florida, took almost a half a point off the Republican lead:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1058335787807326208

[Panda Express]

COLORADO UPDATE

Friday before election now vs 2014. As you can see, it's basically a dead heat between Dems and Rethugs. However, Rethugs were ahead by 100,000 ballots 4 years ago at this time so quite a difference.


Now vs 2014 (in parenthesis)


Democrats  381,411 (371,190)
Republicans  382,028 (475,667)
Independent 324,363 (290,600)

TOTAL 1,100,690 (1,149,745)

[psychprofessor]

Democrats won early vote yesterday in Florida, took almost a half a point off the Republican lead:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1058335787807326208

With the big, blue counties continuing early vote over the weekend, this gap may get under a point...impressive in a midterm

[Gass3268]

Democrats won early vote yesterday in Florida, took almost a half a point off the Republican lead:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1058335787807326208

With the big, blue counties continuing early vote over the weekend, this gap may get under a point...impressive in a midterm

Everyone is open on Saturday, but Sunday is optional.

[Tender Branson]

TN early voting is over:

1.38 million people have voted early.

1.66 million did in 2016.

0.62 million did in 2014.

[ajc0918]

Democrats won early vote yesterday in Florida, took almost a half a point off the Republican lead:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1058335787807326208

With the big, blue counties continuing early vote over the weekend, this gap may get under a point...impressive in a midterm

Everyone is open on Saturday, but Sunday is optional.

I'm going to guess Dems win the weekend by 30k and bring the margin to GOP+25k

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here is a breakdown of party registration of people who early voted in the NYT/Siena Arizona Senate poll. I posted this in one of the AZ poll threads, but am cross-posting here for its relevance to early voting as well.

It suggests that people with no party affiliation are breaking to Sinema.

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.

AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08

how many times does this need to be said

Wrong, CNN said Sinema lead Early Vote 54-43 and Marist said 51-47. Both of these Polls are just pure FANTASY.

GOP currently has a 116K Ballot Advantage in AZ. For starters for Sinema to be tied in the Early Vote she would need to have NPA Voters 70-30 in her favour. That is not happening, no way. ZERO Chance. Even if Sinema holds D's in Early Voting 94-6 and McSally holds Republicans let's say 88-12 Sinema still would need NPA Voters to break her way 68-32 or something like that.

So, the notion that Sinema is leading EV is completely Baloney.

FWIW, in the NYT/Siena poll, if you look at the microdata you can see how people with different party registrations who said they early voted voted, to see how they came up with McSally leading early voters. Caveat being that this is a small sample size, but if you want to actually see how they got their #s, you can see.

Counting unweighted #s of people, out of 178 people in the poll who said they early voted, 69 (39%) were registered Rs, 58 (33%) were registered Ds, and 51 (29%) were registered Ds.

The registered Ds split their vote 49-7-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Rs split their vote 8-59-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Indepents/NPAs split their vote 32-18-1 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)

In percentage terms, that is Sinema winning registered Ds 84%-12%, McSally winning registered Rs 86%-12%, and Sinema winning registered Independents/NPAs 63%-35%.

And overall, that comes out to Sinema winning the early voters 50%-47%.

Then if you apply the NYT/Siena polls weighting, that gets you to Sinema leading among early voters 51%-45%.

Granted, this does not prove that Sinema is leading with early voters, and these are small sub-samples.  But this is how Sinema can be leading with early voters despite Rs having a registration advantage. And indeed, Sinema is handily winning voters with no party affiliation in the sample, which is how she can win even if there is an R registration advantage. Granted also the sample could be somewhat off, and it is quite possible that McSally could be winning early voters (but probably not by much). We have had several polls all with Sinema winning or competitive among the early vote subsample. That does suggest that despite party registration, Sinema will at least be fairly competitive in the early vote, and then we have to see what the election day vote is like.

You are just being deliberately obtuse or willfully blind, you are smart enough that there is no way that you do not understand this.

Party registration /= votes. Duh.

[UncleSam]

Here is a breakdown of party registration of people who early voted in the NYT/Siena Arizona Senate poll. I posted this in one of the AZ poll threads, but am cross-posting here for its relevance to early voting as well.

It suggests that people with no party affiliation are breaking to Sinema.

I know everyone says “early voting numbers don’t matter” and the at might be accurate in other states but in AZ early voting is 80% of the election and as much of a proud dem in AZ that I am, we aren’t doing so good.

AZ-08 AZ-08 AZ-08

how many times does this need to be said

Wrong, CNN said Sinema lead Early Vote 54-43 and Marist said 51-47. Both of these Polls are just pure FANTASY.

GOP currently has a 116K Ballot Advantage in AZ. For starters for Sinema to be tied in the Early Vote she would need to have NPA Voters 70-30 in her favour. That is not happening, no way. ZERO Chance. Even if Sinema holds D's in Early Voting 94-6 and McSally holds Republicans let's say 88-12 Sinema still would need NPA Voters to break her way 68-32 or something like that.

So, the notion that Sinema is leading EV is completely Baloney.

FWIW, in the NYT/Siena poll, if you look at the microdata you can see how people with different party registrations who said they early voted voted, to see how they came up with McSally leading early voters. Caveat being that this is a small sample size, but if you want to actually see how they got their #s, you can see.

Counting unweighted #s of people, out of 178 people in the poll who said they early voted, 69 (39%) were registered Rs, 58 (33%) were registered Ds, and 51 (29%) were registered Ds.

The registered Ds split their vote 49-7-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Rs split their vote 8-59-2 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)
The registered Indepents/NPAs split their vote 32-18-1 (Sinema-McSally-Refused_to_say)

In percentage terms, that is Sinema winning registered Ds 84%-12%, McSally winning registered Rs 86%-12%, and Sinema winning registered Independents/NPAs 63%-35%.

And overall, that comes out to Sinema winning the early voters 50%-47%.

Then if you apply the NYT/Siena polls weighting, that gets you to Sinema leading among early voters 51%-45%.

Granted, this does not prove that Sinema is leading with early voters, and these are small sub-samples.  But this is how Sinema can be leading with early voters despite Rs having a registration advantage. And indeed, Sinema is handily winning voters with no party affiliation in the sample, which is how she can win even if there is an R registration advantage. Granted also the sample could be somewhat off, and it is quite possible that McSally could be winning early voters (but probably not by much). We have had several polls all with Sinema winning or competitive among the early vote subsample. That does suggest that despite party registration, Sinema will at least be fairly competitive in the early vote, and then we have to see what the election day vote is like.

You are just being deliberately obtuse or willfully blind, you are smart enough that there is no way that you do not understand this.

Party registration /= votes. Duh.

That sample is way off by party ID though, particularly in terms of overrepresenting NPAs. In actuality the early vote % is 42.3-33.7-23.3 right now, no where close to 39-33-29. If you assume those %s on the actual party ID of early voters you get McSally 48.6 - Sinema 48.0%. And that’s assuming Sinema is winning NPAs by 28 points.

I’m not saying it is impossible for Sinema to win, but in order to win the early vote she has to win NPAs by over thirty or do substantially better among Ds than McSally does with Rs. And of course getting a boost with the final few days of early voting would help too.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That sample is way off by party ID though, particularly in terms of overrepresenting NPAs. In actuality the early vote % is 42.3-33.7-23.3 right now, no where close to 39-33-29. If you assume those %s on the actual party ID of early voters you get McSally 48.6 - Sinema 48.0%. And that’s assuming Sinema is winning NPAs by 28 points.

I’m not saying it is impossible for Sinema to win, but in order to win the early vote she has to win NPAs by over thirty or do substantially better among Ds than McSally does with Rs. And of course getting a boost with the final few days of early voting would help too.

I don't disagree that NPAs are slightly overrepresented in the sample (by a few points), but I wouldn't call that *way* off given that we are talking about a small sub-sample. Remember also that deviations in party registration of early voters tend to get counteracted by weighting of people in the rest of the poll who are not early voters.

And I also am not saying that Sinema will definitely win early voters, just that the polling suggests she will be at least reasonably competitive among them despite the R party registration advantage. The overriding point is simply that the R party registration advantage among early voters so far does not mean that Sinema is not favored, much less that she can't win. Of course McSally could win too, nobody (at least nobody sensible) is arguing that that is not possible. But some Rs are getting pretty desperate to unskew every AZ poll they can see, on the grounds that supposedly McSally can't lose if there is an R registration advantage.

Like I said:

Granted also the sample could be somewhat off, and it is quite possible that McSally could be winning early voters (but probably not by much). We have had several polls all with Sinema winning or competitive among the early vote subsample. That does suggest that despite party registration, Sinema will at least be fairly competitive in the early vote, and then we have to see what the election day vote is like.

[Xing]

Democrats netted about another 350 votes from Clark absentees, so the freiwal is at nearly 38K. Statewide lead is a little above 15K, it'll probably be a little under once Lyon comes in, but Democrats are definitely going to be well over a 15K lead after tonight, and the Clark freiwal probably gets to at least 42K tonight, if not more.

[Gass3268]

Democrats gain another 0.7 points in Arizona:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1058419107161239553

[Ebsy]

GOP advantage not looking nearly so insurmountable in Arizona.

[psychprofessor]

GOP advantage not looking nearly so insurmountable in Arizona.

It isn't, read the tea leaves, average age of early vote keeps trending down, average percentage of women voters trending up, and in a midterm having a low to mid single digit R reg advantage is not very good for McSally.

[Gass3268]

Today is the last day of in person EV, but folks can still return their ballots through the mail over the weekend.

[GP270watch]

Today is the last day of in person EV, but folks can still return their ballots through the mail over the weekend.

Where?

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 11/1/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 10/27)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 70.2% of ballots returned (50.881/72.522) (+15.3%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 62.8% of ballots returned (35.839/57.078) (+18.8%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 58.5% of ballots returned (32.523/55.586) (+18.5%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 61.9% of ballots returned (22.431/36.224) (+20.9%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 66.2% of ballots returned (22.016/33.258) (+18.4%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 69.3% of ballots returned (20.184/29.125) (+19.7%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 72.1% of ballots returned (11.957/16.594) (+17.9%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 69.9% of ballots returned (8.265/11.819) (+19.4%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 68.6% of ballots returned (4.883/9.414) (+16.7%)

-------
Statewide: 65.9% of ballots returned (278.999/423.242) (+18.3%)