Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 127508 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1350 on: November 02, 2018, 12:31:03 AM »

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1351 on: November 02, 2018, 12:32:09 AM »


YASSSSS

@Antonio: Told you so
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1352 on: November 02, 2018, 12:35:00 AM »

I will very happily eat crow. Cheesy

Still, it ain't done till it's done.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1353 on: November 02, 2018, 12:36:09 AM »

This is amazing, and tomorrow the Dems are doing a MASSIVE GOTV effort with free rides and all.
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Xing
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« Reply #1354 on: November 02, 2018, 12:37:10 AM »

Wow, if they got 4K today, they might get 5K or even more tomorrow, when turnout is even higher. 43K might be possible once absentees are counted. One caveat is that rural turnout was higher, and Republicans gained a little more than 1K based on rurals, but the remaining counties won't come close to off-setting a 4.2K gain in Clark. A 15+K statewide lead looks likely, and 40+K looks pretty much inevitable in Clark. Called it.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1355 on: November 02, 2018, 12:38:03 AM »

I can't wait for Sen. Rosen.

A lot of posters, pundits, pollsters, and "experts" are going to be eating a big breakfast of crow and eggs on November 7th.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1356 on: November 02, 2018, 12:38:21 AM »



HOT DAMN

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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1357 on: November 02, 2018, 12:39:24 AM »

Wow. That means we only need a +2500 net day tomorrow to crack 40k, and tomorrow should be a lot better than that.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1358 on: November 02, 2018, 12:46:02 AM »

The last day of early vote always sees a huge spike in Clark - they probably top 40k votes tomorrow and D's get over that 40k firewall.

I know people keep comparing 2018 to 2016, but look at how much better the D's are fairing versus the last midterm in 2014. And when you look at 2010 (Harry Reid's race) D's only had a raw 6k vote lead in the whole state. For Heller and Laxalt to win they need to be winning I's by double digits and have a huge surge on E-day.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #1359 on: November 02, 2018, 12:49:03 AM »

And in addition to the favorable party registration of early voters in NV, Rs are cannibalizing more to get their increased early vote, whereas Dems are bringing out more new/unlikely voters. It doesn't take a genius to see who is going to win this one.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1360 on: November 02, 2018, 12:49:11 AM »

The last day of early vote always sees a huge spike in Clark - they probably top 40k votes tomorrow and D's get over that 40k firewall.

I know people keep comparing 2018 to 2016, but look at how much better the D's are fairing versus the last midterm in 2014. And when you look at 2010 (Harry Reid's race) D's only had a raw 6k vote lead in the whole state. For Heller and Laxalt to win they need to be winning I's by double digits and have a huge surge on E-day of new voters.

This is what people have been failing to understand no matter how many times it is explained. Reid won by 6 points in a red wave year with a pitiful early vote lead. Yeah, you can dismiss it with MUH Sharron Angle, yet nobody seems to have a problem with using MUH 2016 as a measure for Rosen's benchmarks, so...
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1361 on: November 02, 2018, 12:49:31 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2018, 12:56:15 AM by psychprofessor »

Dems win Washoe, up by 600 woo hoo
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1362 on: November 02, 2018, 12:50:51 AM »

So the Washoe numbers are included in the SOS numbers, massive turnout today: 9,719. Democrats now lead by 610 votes for the week, up from 231 yesterday, meaning a win of 379. This is back of the envelope math so I reserve the right to be wrong.

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Doimper
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« Reply #1363 on: November 02, 2018, 12:51:46 AM »

Cannot believe I got $850 worth of Heller No on that website for 48c a pop, lmfao
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1364 on: November 02, 2018, 12:52:20 AM »

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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1365 on: November 02, 2018, 12:53:21 AM »

The last day of early vote always sees a huge spike in Clark - they probably top 40k votes tomorrow and D's get over that 40k firewall.

I know people keep comparing 2018 to 2016, but look at how much better the D's are fairing versus the last midterm in 2014. And when you look at 2010 (Harry Reid's race) D's only had a raw 6k vote lead in the whole state. For Heller and Laxalt to win they need to be winning I's by double digits and have a huge surge on E-day of new voters.

This is what people have been failing to understand no matter how many times it is explained. Reid won by 6 points in a red wave year with a pitiful early vote lead. Yeah, you can dismiss it with MUH Sharron Angle, yet nobody seems to have a problem with using MUH 2016 as a measure for Rosen's benchmarks, so...

And let's suppose we use 2016 as a benchmark, Cortez-Masto won by 2.4 points overall but lost I's by 10. I guess it's possible that Heller can win I's by double digits but nothing in the polling suggests thats the case, esp in this environment.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1366 on: November 02, 2018, 12:53:24 AM »

So the Washoe numbers are included in the SOS numbers, massive turnout today: 9,719. Democrats now lead by 610 votes for the week, up from 231 yesterday, meaning a win of 379. This is back of the envelope math so I reserve the right to be wrong.

Wait, I thought they led by 700 yesterday? Huh
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1367 on: November 02, 2018, 12:53:31 AM »

Dems win Washoe by 11.....votes. Lead expands to 690. Incredibly hard to see Rs winning statewide with Clark almost certain to get above 40k D lead and likely to win Washoe barring a massive R surge on last day
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1368 on: November 02, 2018, 12:56:08 AM »

So the Washoe numbers are included in the SOS numbers, massive turnout today: 9,719. Democrats now lead by 610 votes for the week, up from 231 yesterday, meaning a win of 379. This is back of the envelope math so I reserve the right to be wrong.

Wait, I thought they led by 700 yesterday? Huh

I just totaled each day for week two from the summaries on on Washoe's website, it's definitely possible that they contain errors or that they revise numbers with the SOS but fail to update those on their site.
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Xing
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« Reply #1369 on: November 02, 2018, 01:25:15 AM »

Assuming turnout is high tomorrow and Democrats get a good margin, 42-43K is definitely possible. 45K is probably not, but considering that Ralston thought their freiwal would be between 30 and 35K at the beginning of the week, it's clear how things have trended.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1370 on: November 02, 2018, 01:46:29 AM »

Ok--- I know most of y'all are most focused on the hot button elections for US-SEN and GOVs in large States, etc.... but still being the Oregon Election addict I am, feel the moral obligation to share the latest Vote-by-Mail update from the great State of Oregon.

OREGON- NOV '18 GE UPDATE- EV data posted on the OR-SoS site as of 18:00 PST.



+ 124k Votes added since Yesterdays Update....  DEM RAW VOTE margins over REP RAW VOTE MARGINS increase from 85.7k to 98.5k.... (Crazy....)

In terms of % Binary Margins DEMS now only lead by +12.5% D vs +12.9% D Yesterday and + 13.0% D on 10/30 SoS Update.

Now, time to look at the overall Turnout to Date in Oregon by Party contrasted against RV numbers as a % of Total Registered Voters:



So, what we see here is that the Democrats have increased their % of DEM REG Voters compared to REP REG Voters from 35.8% of DEMs having already cast ballots vs 28.8% of PUBS.... MISC are now at 20.2%.

The Graph on the left are REG VOTERS by PARTY as a % of TOT REG VOTERS....

Ok--- on paper these numbers look extremely difficult for 'PUBS to overcome in a Statewide Election (OR-GOV), unless there is a combination of not only "Ancestral DEMS" in places like Coos, Columbia, Linn, Waco, Tillamook, etc voting in extremely high % numbers for Knute, combined with a minimal defection of REG PUBs from Metro PDX, and some of the larger Pop Centers in Downstate, and Knute winning 60% of Indies (Think Metro PDX especially).

Fine....

Let's look at the Total % of DEM Turnout by County of RV/EV (11/1 numbers, but OR always runs in arrears).



Ok--- where are the major gaps in DEM Turnout???

Heavily concentrated in the Willamette Valley, including the PDX "'Burbs" of Washington County, Multco (Heavily PDX), as well as the heavily Middle-Age and Younger parts of the Mid-Valley (Including places with significant Latino % of VAP)...

We see similar patterns of RV/EV DEM Turnout in heavily Latino places in Eastern Oregon, where DEMS are becoming a much larger slice of the electorate (Morrow, Umatilla, Malheur, & Crook).

In parts of Oregon with larger Senior Populations, we see extremely High levels of DEM turnout in the NW Coast, SW Oregon Coast, Grain Country in the Columbia River Gorge, and places like (Lake, Wallowa, & Harney), etc....

So--- overall DEM vs REP TO numbers went from a + 2.5% GAP on 10/30 numbers and are now a   
 + 6.9% D TO GAP based upon the 1/11 numbers.

Meanwhile the only places where the DEMs gained on the TO GAP were a small handful of rural Counties, but did increase numbers significantly in a handful of places:

Multnomah: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Washington: +0.1% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Benton: + 0.9% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Lane: + 0.2% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)
Yamhill: +0.3% D > Increase (10/30-11/1)


Problem for 'Pubs is these "handful of counties account for a significant chunk of the Vote Share in Oregon, and additionally indicate potential weaknesses among Indie Voters in the OR-GOV election, which is why Dem's slapped an additional +10k votes in the bank Yesterday...

All is not lost for the 'Pubs however, we saw movements when it comes to RV REP vs DEM TO in favor of the 'Pubs in Deschutes, Jackson, and Clackamas towards the 'Pubs, so maybe the Turnout Gap might be correcting in these relatively large Pop Centers....

Still, I would much rather be Kate Brown sitting with a +100k Dem lead in the bank, knowing that Knute would really have to run up the score with Indies and 'Pubs, and swing a pretty heft chunk of Ancestral Dems, minimize losses from 'PUB defections in places like Happy Valley, Lake Oswego, and certain precincts in West /SW PDX, North Eugene, East Medford, etc.

More to come....









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UncleSam
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« Reply #1371 on: November 02, 2018, 02:01:21 AM »

Iowa
Dems +33.7k statewide

D+14.7k in CD-01
D+16.8k in CD-02
D+11.9k in CD-03
R+9.7k in CD-04 (RIP Scholten)

The respective party leads in each district have grown considerably since last week.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf
Compared to 2016 this represents slightly improved numbers for Dems in the 3rd and 4th districts, slightly worse in the 2nd, and almost exactly equivalent by % in the 1st.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1372 on: November 02, 2018, 05:40:30 AM »



But I was told Latinos weren't turning out by every pundit out there
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1373 on: November 02, 2018, 05:41:34 AM »

I want Democrats to put this race away. They are clearly not doing that. We'll have to rely on the independents to actually win this, and I don't want to bet on independents.

Maybe you should wait for Ralston's final report every night before you start freaking out. Dems added over 4k today.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1374 on: November 02, 2018, 05:43:44 AM »



Assuming this holds for every state and actual Election Day, it doesn't surprise me at all. Most young people are going to vote late or on election day. The takes about the early vote having no youth surge were always dumb.
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