Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[RI]

Turnout in WA-06 and WA-08 seems pretty high as well. Not sure what the story in WA-06 is.

[Gass3268]

What’s the district in Washington with two Democrats?

[ON Progressive]

What’s the district in Washington with two Democrats?

WA-09.

[RI]

A mixed county/LD turnout map:

[KingSweden]

A mixed county/LD turnout map:

Looking purely at WA-5, this is probably good for Cathy and bad for the Republicans in LD-6

[Hindsight was 2020]

When should we get EV in Nevada updates?

[Gass3268]

When should we get EV in Nevada updates?

I wonder if there will be a delay because of Halloween?

[ON Progressive]

Washoe is really slow to post their #s tonight for some reason.

[Ebsy]

The Washoe file is up, just without a summary. I guess Ralston will eventually do the analysis himself.

[YE]

Washoe is really slow to post their #s tonight for some reason.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057848195689021440

[ON Progressive]

The Washoe file is up, just without a summary. I guess Ralston will eventually do the analysis himself.

No it isn't. The file they put up says "10_30_18", so they must have accidentally uploaded the October 30 file again.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1057842605411762176

Big turnout in Georgia.

[Ebsy]

The Washoe file is up, just without a summary. I guess Ralston will eventually do the analysis himself.

No it isn't. The file they put up says "10_30_18", so they must have accidentally uploaded the October 30 file again.

You are right, best to wait until they post their official summary.

[Xing]

Ralston initially claimed that Republicans took the lead by 250 votes, which would imply a net gain of 1000 (!) for today, but then said that he may have tweeted prematurely, based on the wrong file. Hopefully the latter is the case, but be forewarned.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m hanging around Predictit and one guy is claiming the Dems won Clark again by 10% and added 2.3k+ to firewall

[Xing]

I’m hanging around Predictit and one guy is claiming the Dems won Clark again by 10% and added 2.3k+ to firewall

Yep, that's exactly the case.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057858196256174080

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057857194195005441

Still a solid performance for relatively low turnout on Halloween.

[ON Progressive]

I’m hanging around Predictit and one guy is claiming the Dems won Clark again by 10% and added 2.3k+ to firewall

Yep, that's exactly the case.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057858196256174080

That seems rather disappointing.

[Adam Griffin]

It'll be fine

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1057858196256174080

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

38K seems to be likely at this point.

[Hindsight was 2020]

38K seems to be likely at this point.

So in between 35k (Toss-up but Rosen should feel good) and 40k (tilt D)

[Xing]

I'd say 40K is still very likely, since turnout on the last day is almost always very high, and the penultimate day is usually higher than average as well. 3K tomorrow and 4K on Friday is what I would guess.

[ON Progressive]

I'd say 40K is still very likely, since turnout on the last day is almost always very high, and the penultimate day is usually higher than average as well. 3K tomorrow and 4K on Friday is what I would guess.

Also, today was Halloween which is usually a really bad day for Dems because for some reason people don’t bother to turn out. Dems only won by 900 in Clark in 2016 on Halloween.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’d love for Washoe to fix up already

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- VOTE BY MAIL UPDATE- 10/31/18

24.0% of Registered Voters have now returned their ballots officially into the hands of County Election Offices.

DEMS currently lead in Turnout by + 85.7k Votes.

Electorate to date is (45.0% D, 32.1% R, 22.9% OTHER)   +12.9% D LEAD

The DEM Margin lead will likely continue to shrink as REG NAVs/IND, and 3rd Party Voters start voting in greater numbers as they typically do closer to Election Day.

Turnout: 30.4 % of DEMs have already returned ballots vs 24.3% of PUBS and 16.8% of NAV/IND/3rd Party.

Let's look at the Graph of the Total Vote Returned by Party Registration with 10/30 vs 10/31 numbers, and raw % margins as proportion of overall Ballot Turnout.



So DEM TO numbers vs REP TO numbers dropped slightly (0.1-0.2% rounding), but DEMS still added an additional +10k RAW VOTE LEAD vs PUBS out of another ~70k Votes banked.

Sure in the OR-GOV election in theory PUBS might be able to capture 15% of REG DEMS in a best case scenario (Looking at Kate Brown's performance in the DEM primary in places like Linn County for example), and win 60% of NAV/Indies, but still even in that extreme scenario DEMs already lead by 85k Votes!!!

Ok--- that combined with the Democratic > Republican voter gap, in theory could present a scenario where suddenly there is a surge of PUB voters in the next short week.

Well, let's look at the Voter Turnout % by County to date:



One of the items that stands out dramatically are the Turnout numbers in Jackson and Deschutes specifically, considering these two counties account for an extremely large % of the Vote in OR-CD-'02.

My numbers from Yesterday called out the Turnout Gap in Jackson and Deschutes that just today went from a +2.2% DEM TO lead in Deschutes to a +2.6% DEM LEAD.

Jackson goes from a +4.4% D lead to a +4.5% D Lead....

Although unfortunately I can't track these numbers by CD-02, let alone by precinct/city, the results from OR CD-02 might well be closer than many have expected considering that DEM enthusiasm appears to be much higher in the major population centers of the district, despite it's reputation as a "Mountain West" style district.

Perhaps not a surprise, but we have yet to see a major "Latino Surge" among the Counties of the Columbia River Gorge, and SE Oregon, where in theory Latinos have some of the highest population percentages of most places in Oregon.

At this point, we have yet to see these results, although I recognize that in many parts of the Gorge and SE OR, there is large Latino Population that are Agricultural Guest-Workers with Mexican Visas under H 2-A.

Additionally, we need to look at Marion County which has a current voter turnout rate of only 21.9% and Washington County with a current voter turnout rate of only 19.3% (Despite being one of the most HRC Counties in Oregon!!!).

Time will tell, but bottom line working-class Oregonians are most likely to have shifted addresses, not updated their stuff with the DMV, and the Working Class population of Oregon is starting to become increasingly Latino at a statewide level among Registered Oregon Voters, especially among Younger Voters (Millennial and Gen Z).

I could go through the numbers further, but Knute needs to not only do well among Ancestral Dems in Small-Town & Rural "Downstate Oregon", win big among Indies "Downstate", AND generate decent margins among REG NAV/IND especially in Metro PDX.

Also, OR- CD-02 might well be a giant wild card with a prep DEM re-run in 2020 with Trump on the Ballot with higher turnout, AND we have a decent chance of flipping a State 'Pub seat in Nov '18 in the Factory Town in Downstate where I currently reside...