Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 127486 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #1225 on: October 31, 2018, 01:45:02 PM »


Wow.  The margin between the GOP EV advantage in 2014 compared to their advantage right now is more than Rick Scott's victory over Charlie Crist that year.  That's a YUGE advantage for the GOP that's been erased.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1226 on: October 31, 2018, 01:48:37 PM »


Wow.  The margin between the GOP EV advantage in 2014 compared to their advantage right now is more than Rick Scott's victory over Charlie Crist that year.  That's a YUGE advantage for the GOP that's been erased.

Don’t you mean less?
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GP270watch
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« Reply #1227 on: October 31, 2018, 01:53:44 PM »

In 2014 Rick Scott beat Crist by 64,145 votes.

The Republican EV lead in 2014 was around 133,000, in 2018 it's only 62,937.

I think that's what he means.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1228 on: October 31, 2018, 01:58:07 PM »

Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:


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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1229 on: October 31, 2018, 02:02:12 PM »

Yesterday, I asked my friend yesterday why they hadn't mailed their ballot yet. Apparently, they didn't want it to get lost, so they were going to drop it off at an early voting center. Maybe that's had an effect on these numbers
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1230 on: October 31, 2018, 02:32:24 PM »

Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:




Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #1231 on: October 31, 2018, 02:43:27 PM »

Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:




Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?
Low single digits but as you said, not an awesome comparison
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1232 on: October 31, 2018, 02:45:47 PM »

Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:




Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?
Low single digits but as you said, not an awesome comparison

I think it was like 3.5
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1233 on: October 31, 2018, 02:47:21 PM »

Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:




Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?
Low single digits but as you said, not an awesome comparison

I think it was like 3.5

From this article it appears a week before the election in 2016 it was +6 R and +11-12 R in 2012.
https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/arizona-early-voting-5-charts/93152768/
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1234 on: October 31, 2018, 02:55:09 PM »

This should be the turning point in Nevada, right? Democrats need to start turning out big numbers in Clark.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1235 on: October 31, 2018, 02:55:54 PM »

This should be the turning point in Nevada, right? Democrats need to start turning out big numbers in Clark.

Yeah. The last three days of early voting are very strong for Democrats typically.
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riceowl
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« Reply #1236 on: October 31, 2018, 03:00:05 PM »

Interesting numbers out of Texas:

More
Nuggets from Texas early voting (as of 10/29):

•Early votes cast- 791,858 more than 2014 total
•% of 1st time voters almost 2x 2014- 5% to 9.2%
•Hispanic surname voters up- 15.2% in 14 to 19.1%
•Dems down 33.4% in 14 to 28.4%
•Under 40 are bigger % of early voters than 14

However, the % 1st time voters are people who have NEVER voted in any previous election in Texas, so there is no way to determine their party affiliation.  Republicans were only down 0.2% from 14.

where on earth are these coming from?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1237 on: October 31, 2018, 03:02:45 PM »

Republicans have fallen more than .2, they lost 5 points from people with mixed histories but voted GOP most recently.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1238 on: October 31, 2018, 03:04:17 PM »

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LOL, Heller still behind even if he wins independents by double digits.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1239 on: October 31, 2018, 03:11:04 PM »

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LOL, Heller still behind even if he wins independents by double digits.
tbf, trump won nv indies by 13, so not too crazy
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1240 on: October 31, 2018, 03:13:35 PM »

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LOL, Heller still behind even if he wins independents by double digits.
tbf, trump won nv indies by 13, so not too crazy

So then the generic ballot being D+2 isn't too crazy either.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #1241 on: October 31, 2018, 06:39:16 PM »

Ralston said in a post this morning that he still considers NV-SEN a tossup, so apparently he agrees with me on that. I still think people are obsessing too much over the Clark "firewall" and not looking at the state as a whole. Democrats are leading statewide by only 12,000 votes, which is a far cry from 2016's ~45,000 EV statewide advantage. Their percentage lead is about 2.6% right now, and I know Ralston once remarked that either party has a legitimate shot as long as the margin stays below 3%.

Although if there's one more poll showing Rosen ahead, I would tilt this race in her favor.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1242 on: October 31, 2018, 06:50:25 PM »

Ralston said in a post this morning that he still considers NV-SEN a tossup, so apparently he agrees with me on that. I still think people are obsessing too much over the Clark "firewall" and not looking at the state as a whole. Democrats are leading statewide by only 12,000 votes, which is a far cry from 2016's ~45,000 EV statewide advantage. Their percentage lead is about 2.6% right now, and I know Ralston once remarked that either party has a legitimate shot as long as the margin stays below 3%.

Although if there's one more poll showing Rosen ahead, I would tilt this race in her favor.

Comparing overall #s is useless considering turnout was higher in 2016. Not to mention, there's still 3 days left.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #1243 on: October 31, 2018, 06:59:12 PM »

Ralston said in a post this morning that he still considers NV-SEN a tossup, so apparently he agrees with me on that. I still think people are obsessing too much over the Clark "firewall" and not looking at the state as a whole. Democrats are leading statewide by only 12,000 votes, which is a far cry from 2016's ~45,000 EV statewide advantage. Their percentage lead is about 2.6% right now, and I know Ralston once remarked that either party has a legitimate shot as long as the margin stays below 3%.

Although if there's one more poll showing Rosen ahead, I would tilt this race in her favor.

Comparing overall #s is useless considering turnout was higher in 2016. Not to mention, there's still 3 days left.

Sure, it's not a direct apples-to-apples comparison, but turnout this year is expected to be about 80% of 2016's turnout. That means to that roughly match 2016's statewide advantage, Democrats would need a margin of roughly 36,000 votes. Still falls short. And if Democrats have barely reached a 12,000 vote margin more than 75% of the way through early voting, they are not gaining an extra 24,000 votes over the final 25%.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #1244 on: October 31, 2018, 07:04:15 PM »

Ralston said in a post this morning that he still considers NV-SEN a tossup, so apparently he agrees with me on that. I still think people are obsessing too much over the Clark "firewall" and not looking at the state as a whole. Democrats are leading statewide by only 12,000 votes, which is a far cry from 2016's ~45,000 EV statewide advantage. Their percentage lead is about 2.6% right now, and I know Ralston once remarked that either party has a legitimate shot as long as the margin stays below 3%.

Although if there's one more poll showing Rosen ahead, I would tilt this race in her favor.

Comparing overall #s is useless considering turnout was higher in 2016. Not to mention, there's still 3 days left.

Sure, it's not a direct apples-to-apples comparison, but turnout this year is expected to be about 80% of 2016's turnout. That means to that roughly match 2016's statewide advantage, Democrats would need a margin of roughly 36,000 votes. Still falls short. And if Democrats have barely reached a 12,000 vote margin more than 75% of the way through early voting, they are not gaining an extra 24,000 votes over the final 25%.
dem fell from EV to ED 18,000 votes, then. With a projected 80% turnout of 2016, that means about 14400 fall for dems from EV to ED...they lead by 600 votes, so pure tossup, maybe tilt d considering dems will likely improve in the coming 3 days.
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riceowl
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« Reply #1245 on: October 31, 2018, 07:09:19 PM »

Big storm in Houston today so wouldn't be surprised to see numbers down in Harris.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1246 on: October 31, 2018, 07:16:11 PM »

Ralston said in a post this morning that he still considers NV-SEN a tossup, so apparently he agrees with me on that. I still think people are obsessing too much over the Clark "firewall" and not looking at the state as a whole. Democrats are leading statewide by only 12,000 votes, which is a far cry from 2016's ~45,000 EV statewide advantage. Their percentage lead is about 2.6% right now, and I know Ralston once remarked that either party has a legitimate shot as long as the margin stays below 3%.

Although if there's one more poll showing Rosen ahead, I would tilt this race in her favor.

Not to mention Trump won Indies in 2016, and I doubt Reps win them this year.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #1247 on: October 31, 2018, 07:30:07 PM »

Another 7,500 people voted here today in Volusia County.

VBM total:
28,897 - Republicans
24,474 - Democrats
13,863 - NPA

67,234 - Total VBM ballots returned so far

In person early voting:
13,983 - Republicans
13,256 - Democrats
6,719 - NPA

34,228 - total in person ballots cast so far

Total votes in so far: 101,462
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RI
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« Reply #1248 on: October 31, 2018, 07:52:08 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2018, 07:58:11 PM by RI »

Spokane County is no longer the top return county in WA:

1. Lincoln, 43.4%
2. Jefferson, 41.1%
3. Pend Oreille, 36.9%
4. Garfield, 36.59%
5. Mason, 35.5%
6. Chelan, 35.3%
7. Columbia, 34.6%
8. Spokane, 34.5%
9. Ferry, 33.4%
10. Lewis, 32.5%

6 of the top 10 are in WA-05.

Returns in King County are pretty consistent except in WA-09, where turnout is way behind.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1249 on: October 31, 2018, 08:01:55 PM »

Spokane County is no longer the top return county in WA:

1. Lincoln, 43.4%
2. Jefferson, 41.1%
3. Pend Oreille, 36.9%
4. Garfield, 36.59%
5. Mason, 35.5%
6. Chelan, 35.3%
7. Columbia, 34.6%
8. Spokane, 34.5%
9. Ferry, 33.4%
10. Lewis, 32.5%

6 of the top 10 are in WA-05.

Returns in King County are pretty consistent except in WA-09, where turnout is way behind.

Did the auditors just wait to report in a bunch of these counties?
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