Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 127481 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1200 on: October 30, 2018, 09:35:04 PM »

A couple things:

1) GOP ultimately won on Monday, but only by a few hundred ballots. That's not good enough I would argue.

2) Washoe early vote has come in for today:

This is also not good enough. The exact Dem lead in Washoe is 734 votes, by the way.

Considering that this is the second of two supposedly "good" days for Republicans, I think Democrats are more likely than not to end up ahead in Washoe. They need either really high rural turnout today, or a narrower margin in Clark to turn things around. If the statewide lead doesn't change much today, I'd say a 15K lead overall should definitely be doable for Democrats by the end of the week.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1201 on: October 30, 2018, 10:19:00 PM »

Does not look like Heller is getting a rural surge today from the few reporting so far.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1202 on: October 30, 2018, 10:20:21 PM »

Does not look like Heller is getting a rural surge today from the few reporting so far.
You keep saying that but his #’s were fine the past couple of days
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1203 on: October 30, 2018, 10:29:15 PM »

Turnout looks to be only slightly down in the rurals, but since Republicans only barely won Washoe today, they'll need Clark to be narrower (or turnout to be lower) to win today.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1204 on: October 30, 2018, 11:00:55 PM »

So, I decided to look at the our current numbers (as of yesterday) and compare them against 2010, when Harry Reid won an upset reelection in a GOP wave year. This is partial turnout as of yesterday vs. total turnout in 2010:

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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1205 on: October 30, 2018, 11:40:41 PM »

So, I decided to look at the our current numbers (as of yesterday) and compare them against 2010, when Harry Reid won an upset reelection in a GOP wave year. This is partial turnout as of yesterday vs. total turnout in 2010:



Not bad. I still wonder how Bundy will factor into the gubernatorial election.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1206 on: October 30, 2018, 11:52:00 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 11:55:47 PM by Xing »

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057495240628670465

Dems gain 2.4K in Clark, winning by 9.6%. Freiwal is at almost 31K.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1207 on: October 30, 2018, 11:59:58 PM »


And today was supposed to be the last good day for Republicans. It's looking rather bleak for them at this point.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #1208 on: October 31, 2018, 12:01:57 AM »


Seems pretty good for what is historically one of the best GOP days.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1209 on: October 31, 2018, 12:04:05 AM »

All right, so if they can break 3K for each of the next 3 days we'll get to 40K. Good.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1210 on: October 31, 2018, 12:09:17 AM »

Another huge early voting day in TN.

Probably around 100.000 votes were cast yesterday (reports are still coming in).

On the comparable Tuesday in 2016, it was 109.000 votes.

1.5 million early votes seem possible this year, compared with 1.7 during the 2016 general election.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1211 on: October 31, 2018, 12:20:18 AM »



My God... they're voting... all of them.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1212 on: October 31, 2018, 12:22:37 AM »
« Edited: October 31, 2018, 09:36:20 PM by NOVA Green »

OREGON- VOTE BY MAIL UPDATE 10/30/18 (AM)

Big dump of ballots to reflect votes mailed / dropped in neighborhood ballot collection boxes over the Weekend...

21.5% of Ballots have now been "officially received" by County Election offices.

DEMS currently lead in turnout by + 77.7k votes and + 13.1% D Margins (45.2% D- 32.1% R- 22.7% Other).




This only tells a small part of the Story.... now let's look at the Vote Share to date by Party REG, first wave of EVs, and then the large dump earlier today...



So, the curious thing about Oregon is not only that it is a 100% Vote by Mail (VbM) State, but additionally is now an Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) State, where every transaction that an Oregonian has with the State DMV as a Legal Resident of the State, will automatically register them to vote unless they chose to "opt-out".

If the Individual does not select to "opt-out" they will automatically be placed on the voter rolls as an NAV and the ballot will be sent to their home address on record that the Oregon DMV has on file.

What this has meant is a surge in voter registration, and likely voter turnout will be lower as an overall % in '18 compared to '14, although overall numbers will likely be higher....

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/02/us/politics/oregon-voter-registration.html

I am extremely curious about '14 vs '18 overall comparisons in Oregon as a direct result of this law, which other States in our Great Nation are considering as well....

Now let's look at the current "Enthusiasm Gap" by County in Oregon.

This is a calculation that takes the total # of REG DEM / # of EV DEM Ballots Received MINUS the # of REG REP / # of EV REP Ballots received.



These numbers obviously do not appear to be particularly friendly to Republicans at this fixed point in time and space...

Sure, in a Gubernatorial Election, in theory the 'Pubs might be able to swing enough Indies in Metro PDX, Mid-Valley, Southern Oregon, and Central Oregon to make the math work...

Certainly we need need to consider the Ancestral DEM voters of places like Columbia and Coos Counties, as well as potentially rural and small town communities in the Oregon Coast, Lane, Linn and Clackamas County, etc

Regardless DEMs look solid in all US-CDs currently represented, and I am extremely curious about potential margins in OR-CD-02...

DEMOCRATIC Leads in Jackson and Deschutes Counties stand out dramatically....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304960.msg6495342#msg6495342

There are obviously various State House and Senate Elections in Play in Oregon, as well as other local elections (Currently it looks like the DEM candidate for Lane County Commissioner is 50-50 to make a 3-0 D in County Government in a very rural and resourced based District in Eastern Lane County that voted for Trump by decent margins)...

Out for now...NoVa GREEN
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Xing
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« Reply #1213 on: October 31, 2018, 12:23:53 AM »

All right, so if they can break 3K for each of the next 3 days we'll get to 40K. Good.

If turnout goes up (as it usually does near the end), that shouldn't be hard. 45K might even be possible.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1214 on: October 31, 2018, 12:45:43 AM »



My God... they're voting... all of them.

Have us Millennials finally been slapped enough to wake up, akin to what happened in the UK recently?
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Lachi
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« Reply #1215 on: October 31, 2018, 01:43:44 AM »

Dems add another 2,400 votes in Clark County, now up at around 31,000.

If the Dems managed to add around 5,000 to the firewall ON THE GOOD GOP DAYS, I can't imagine what might happen in the next 3 days...

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1057495240628670465

Also, another thing the GOP should be worrying about is that turnout in comparison to this time week 1 is actually significantly lower in the rural counties and Washoe, while it's holding steady in Clark.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1216 on: October 31, 2018, 01:57:19 AM »

VA doesn't have partisan registration or even racial data but it does give data by age group and while the early vote is up among all age groups, it's increased the most as you go into the lower age groups.  Also NoVa's 3 districts account for almost half of the early vote.

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/absentee-voting-age/

Also, keep in mind the comparisons in VA are to the Gov election just last year.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1217 on: October 31, 2018, 05:50:12 AM »

Eh, those AZ numbers still suck.  Wasn't the GOP lead in EV in the low-single digits before Election Day (where Trump still eked out a 4% victory)?!


AZ is wonky. I hate to keep bringing up AZ-08, but... AZ-08. Not to mention Election Day this year actually favored the Dems.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #1218 on: October 31, 2018, 06:42:20 AM »

Top 20 voting states so far compared to 2014 totals (12 of them have already exceeded the 2014 totals with several days still to go):

1. Tennessee: 170.5%
2. Texas: 162.3%
3. Nevada: 142.1%
4. Maryland: 142%
5. Georgia: 140.8%
6. Indiana: 127.9%
7. North Carolina: 109%
8. Minnesota: 106%
9. Louisiana: 104.1%
10. Virginia: 104%
11. New Mexico: 103.6%
12. Delaware: 103.2%

13. Montana: 98%
14. Illinois: 97%
15. South Carolina: 96.6%
16. Florida: 96.4%
17. Arizona: 92.7%
18. Wisconsin: 90.2%
19. West Virginia: 86.8%
20. Michigan: 85.9%

Bottom 5 so far:

34. Pennsylvania: 40%
35. Oregon: 38.7%
36. Vermont: 30.9%
37. Alaska: 30.8%
38. Hawaii: 16.6%

Still no numbers from these 12 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, South Dakota & Utah

A bit disappointed in Arizona so far. Florida is also not that high, but it might be due to the devastating hurricane and its aftermath. Alaska has a very close governor's race, so it just have to increase a lot in the coming days.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1219 on: October 31, 2018, 07:12:05 AM »

Pennsylvania is a bad example. There is no early voting. Just absentees, which skew old
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1220 on: October 31, 2018, 08:15:06 AM »

Not sure how these numbers compare to the past, but that NC-02 is a little eye popping.

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KingSweden
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« Reply #1221 on: October 31, 2018, 08:35:01 AM »

Not sure how these numbers compare to the past, but that NC-02 is a little eye popping.



Usual caveats about Demosaurs in the South, but damn
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1222 on: October 31, 2018, 08:48:13 AM »

Not sure how these numbers compare to the past, but that NC-02 is a little eye popping.



Usual caveats about Demosaurs in the South, but damn

I asked the person who comes up with these charts and it looks like he/she is going to do a some comparisons to past years later this week.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1223 on: October 31, 2018, 09:06:13 AM »

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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1224 on: October 31, 2018, 10:09:49 AM »

Interesting numbers out of Texas:

More
Nuggets from Texas early voting (as of 10/29):

•Early votes cast- 791,858 more than 2014 total
•% of 1st time voters almost 2x 2014- 5% to 9.2%
•Hispanic surname voters up- 15.2% in 14 to 19.1%
•Dems down 33.4% in 14 to 28.4%
•Under 40 are bigger % of early voters than 14

However, the % 1st time voters are people who have NEVER voted in any previous election in Texas, so there is no way to determine their party affiliation.  Republicans were only down 0.2% from 14.
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