MI-WDIV: Whitmer +14

[ON Progressive]

Tossup, clearly.

I was told by Beet that Michigan voters are misogynists though, so therefore we need to give Whitmer a 10 point penalty because every single female candidate is DOA because “MUH 2016.”

[BuckeyeNut]

Doubt. But RGA is pulling out of Michigan.

Link?

Link.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

Honestly, at this point it may in fact be the case that as long as you're a Democrat, it's better electorally to be Female than it is to be Male.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

Honestly, at this point it may in fact be the case that as long as you're a Democrat, it's better electorally to be Female than it is to be Male.

In primaries generally, yeah. But plenty of men have beat women in competitive primaries this year as well: Gillum, Lipinski, Walt Maddox, Mike Levin, Jared Polis, Ige, Case, Casten, Hubbell, Walz, Sisolak, Horsford, Scott Wallace come to mind. It’s hardly as big a penis penalty as Hemorrhoid claims

The fact that one has to strain for examples kind of proves my point. Unqualified women have been winning up and down for no other reason than who they are regardless of how progressive they are via-à-vis the more qualified man (with AOC being a huge exception that proves the rule).  When are people gonna wake up to the Bosse-types owning the Dem party at this point? No men will be left in the party in two decades the more they keep up these antics.

[junior chįmp]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

Honestly, at this point it may in fact be the case that as long as you're a Democrat, it's better electorally to be Female than it is to be Male.

In primaries generally, yeah. But plenty of men have beat women in competitive primaries this year as well: Gillum, Lipinski, Walt Maddox, Mike Levin, Jared Polis, Ige, Case, Casten, Hubbell, Walz, Sisolak, Horsford, Scott Wallace come to mind. It’s hardly as big a penis penalty as Hemorrhoid claims

The fact that one has to strain for examples kind of proves my point. Unqualified women have been winning up and down for no other reason than who they are regardless of how progressive they are via-à-vis the more qualified man (with AOC being a huge exception that proves the rule).  When are people gonna wake up to the Bosse-types owning the Dem party at this point? No men will be left in the party in two decades the more they keep up these antics.

Calm down

[windjammer]

With this kind of margin it appears it is likely that the MI state House falls and maybe the MI state Senate

[Zaybay]

Lean/Likely D, but we knew that already.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's disappointing that my early endorsement of Schuette failed to create a Toss-Up Contest.

it's almost as if no one gives a sh*t about your endrosements

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's disappointing that my early endorsement of Schuette failed to create a Toss-Up Contest.

it's almost as if no one gives a sh*t about your endrosements

Unfortunately that is the case sometimes.

[Bojack Horseman]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

What they were freaked about is the fact that the woman who was elected in 2002 and 2006 was politically radioactive, just like Nancy Pelosi was from 2010 until this year. We all knew that whoever the GOP nominee was would just scream GRANHOLM!!!!!!! incessantly and in a Hillary midterm it might have worked. Right now the national environment combined with Snyder fatigue are the reason why the Granholm refrain isn’t winning over voters. It worked in 2010 and 2014, and in a more neutral environment, it probably would have worked in 2018.

[IceSpear]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

Honestly, at this point it may in fact be the case that as long as you're a Democrat, it's better electorally to be Female than it is to be Male.

In primaries generally, yeah. But plenty of men have beat women in competitive primaries this year as well: Gillum, Lipinski, Walt Maddox, Mike Levin, Jared Polis, Ige, Case, Casten, Hubbell, Walz, Sisolak, Horsford, Scott Wallace come to mind. It’s hardly as big a penis penalty as Hemorrhoid claims

The fact that one has to strain for examples kind of proves my point. Unqualified women have been winning up and down for no other reason than who they are regardless of how progressive they are via-à-vis the more qualified man (with AOC being a huge exception that proves the rule).  When are people gonna wake up to the Bosse-types owning the Dem party at this point? No men will be left in the party in two decades the more they keep up these antics.

He listed like a dozen examples, I'd hardly call that having to "strain."

[IceSpear]

A year ago Democratic insiders were wringing their hands saying Whitmer was doomed and we needed to find a man to run for Governor. My how times have changed.

This was nonsense then and is nonsense now. MI already elected a female governor twice, in 2002 and 2006. And Whitmer seems to run a strong campaign. Most voters don't care about gender. At least not those who vote or might vote Democratic. Same on male Democratic incumbents or candidates. If they're doomed, it's not because of gender.

What they were freaked about is the fact that the woman who was elected in 2002 and 2006 was politically radioactive, just like Nancy Pelosi was from 2010 until this year. We all knew that whoever the GOP nominee was would just scream GRANHOLM!!!!!!! incessantly and in a Hillary midterm it might have worked. Right now the national environment combined with Snyder fatigue are the reason why the Granholm refrain isn’t winning over voters. It worked in 2010 and 2014, and in a more neutral environment, it probably would have worked in 2018.

Actually, this poll shows Granholm with a 41-41 favorability rating.

It's almost as if running against someone that hasn't been on the ballot in over a decade isn't the best strategy, since time usually rehabilitates the image of past politicians. It would be like Dems running against Dubya in 2020, lol.

[Beet]

Tossup, clearly.

I was told by Beet that Michigan voters are misogynists though, so therefore we need to give Whitmer a 10 point penalty because every single female candidate is DOA because “MUH 2016.”

Michigan was by far the biggest state where voters saw a man, saw a woman, both who had a real shot at winning, and picked the latter. I thought it would follow the same pattern as other states. I was wrong, but it's an understandable mistake, given the general pattern.

[Gass3268]

There is no reason why anyone should think this race is a toss up.

[IceSpear]

There is no reason why anyone should think this race is a toss up.

It hasn’t been a tossup since last summer, but I was ridiculed for suggesting that an unpopular Governor and an unpopular President of the same party would be a drag on the party’s chances at holding it.

I've had it at lean D since the spring. I was overly pessimistic and cautious I guess, lol. Whitmer leading by 5-7 points in polls where she had like 20% name recognition (about the same a random name drawn out of a hat would get) was a dead giveaway to the direction of this race.

But at the time, we had geniuses talking about how it was TERRIBLE news for Whitmer that she only led 40-36 or something. Because apparently many people can't read into a poll beyond the toplines.

This thread is a great example of how easily "candidate quality" is confused with "name recognition":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277085.0

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Doubt. But RGA is pulling out of Michigan.

Why? It’s pretty much in line with Whitmer’s climb.

This reminds me of back in summer 2008 when McCain pulled out of Michigan in the summer.

[Bojack Horseman]

So is it too early to declare this a NJ-2017 redux yet?

[Progressive Pessimist]

So is it too early to declare this a NJ-2017 redux yet?

Will Whitmer under-perform due to low turnout yet still win by a pretty sizable margin?

[Bojack Horseman]

So is it too early to declare this a NJ-2017 redux yet?

Will Whitmer under-perform due to low turnout yet still win by a pretty sizable margin?

I meant more in the sense that an originally-formidable Republican loses badly because an unpopular incumbent drags him/her down like an anchor around their neck.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So is it too early to declare this a NJ-2017 redux yet?

Will Whitmer under-perform due to low turnout yet still win by a pretty sizable margin?

I meant more in the sense that an originally-formidable Republican loses badly because an unpopular incumbent drags him/her down like an anchor around their neck.

True. I can definitely see that.