Yeah, that's a pretty good result for Beto. Dixie Strategies in TX is normally pretty horrible for Dems in TX (somewhat realistically though...).
Great poll!
Unfortunately, I have a feeling that final few percent that Beto needs is gonna be damn near impossible to get.
Yes, exactly that. Those last few percentage points are incredibly tough, especially in a midterm. Beto would have a better chance if it were a Presidential year with Presidential turnout. But too much of the Dem base in TX is just not the college-educated whites among whom Dems are likely to have a particular surge.
I think if this race were in 2020 Beto would probably be doing worse-it's possible it could be different but the environment is very favorable to Beto with Democrats having a big nationwide edge, enthusiasm and midterm election dynamics. If it were a presidential election year sure more Democratic voters would turn out but more Republicans would turn out, and I think that would overall tilt towards Cruz. Especially since it's unlikely the Democrats wins by near double digits in 2020, so the national environment would be better for Cruz than it is rn. Beto has the best national environment he can realistically hope for, and he's made good use of it so far, but it's unclear whether it'll be enough.
