TX - CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll: Cruz +4%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:01:46 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  TX - CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll: Cruz +4%
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: TX - CBS 11 / Dixie Strategies Poll: Cruz +4%  (Read 3383 times)
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 12, 2018, 02:11:05 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2018, 02:17:50 PM »

Great poll!

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that final few percent that Beto needs is gonna be damn near impossible to get.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2018, 02:20:35 PM »

Isn't it normal for TX Republicans to do quite a bit better among LVs than RVs? Doesn’t seem like it this time.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,143


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2018, 02:20:46 PM »

I wonder whose silhouette they use for undecided.  
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,761


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2018, 02:21:21 PM »

Yeah, that's a pretty good result for Beto. Dixie Strategies in TX is normally pretty horrible for Dems in TX (somewhat realistically though...).

Great poll!

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that final few percent that Beto needs is gonna be damn near impossible to get.

Yes, exactly that. Those last few percentage points are incredibly tough, especially in a midterm. Beto would have a better chance if it were a Presidential year with Presidential turnout. But too much of the Dem base in TX is just not the college-educated whites among whom Dems are likely to have a particular surge.
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,594
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2018, 02:21:28 PM »

Cruz has had a pretty consistent lead of a few points.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2018, 02:23:12 PM »

It's encouraging, but the race seems stable at the moment with a small Cruz lead. Hope we soon see some polls showing Beto ahead. I know, the only poll that counts is election day, but as long as Cruz is ahead in all polls, it makes it harder to believe Beto can actually win.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2018, 02:30:02 PM »

Dixie Strategies is an unreliable pollster to say the least.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2018, 03:51:39 PM »

Good result again.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2018, 03:53:03 PM »

I agree that although O'Rourke has come closer than just about anyone expected him to, making up those last few percentage points will be quite difficult. Not impossible, but Cruz is still definitely favored.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2018, 03:58:55 PM »


I don't think it's a coincidence that the silhouette of "undecided man" is basically a silhouette of Ted Cruz
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2018, 04:26:50 PM »


I don't think it's a coincidence that the silhouette of "undecided man" is basically a silhouette of Ted Cruz

The silhouette is far more attractive and inviting than Cruz's ugly mug and forced grimace.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2018, 04:51:02 PM »

I agree that although O'Rourke has come closer than just about anyone expected him to, making up those last few percentage points will be quite difficult. Not impossible, but Cruz is still definitely favored.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2018, 06:07:32 PM »

I feel like “last few percentage points” analysis is usually ok but it goes out the window in Texas 2018 where you have both a highly volatile and disengaged electorate and a lot of people potentially voting against past habit.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2018, 06:23:43 PM »

We're a little less than 2 months away and it looks like based on numerous polls its officially about Cruz +3/4. Beto has 50-something days to get those last 3/4%
Logged
South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,394


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2018, 10:46:17 PM »

We're a little less than 2 months away and it looks like based on numerous polls its officially about Cruz +3/4. Beto has 50-something days to get those last 3/4%

Yup.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,066


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2018, 05:29:19 AM »

Yeah, that's a pretty good result for Beto. Dixie Strategies in TX is normally pretty horrible for Dems in TX (somewhat realistically though...).

Great poll!

Unfortunately, I have a feeling that final few percent that Beto needs is gonna be damn near impossible to get.

Yes, exactly that. Those last few percentage points are incredibly tough, especially in a midterm. Beto would have a better chance if it were a Presidential year with Presidential turnout. But too much of the Dem base in TX is just not the college-educated whites among whom Dems are likely to have a particular surge.

I think if this race were in 2020 Beto would probably be doing worse-it's possible it could be different but the environment is very favorable to Beto with Democrats having a big nationwide edge, enthusiasm and midterm election dynamics. If it were a presidential election year sure more Democratic voters would turn out but more Republicans would turn out, and I think that would overall tilt towards Cruz. Especially since it's unlikely the Democrats wins by near double digits in 2020, so the national environment would be better for Cruz than it is rn. Beto has the best national environment he can realistically hope for, and he's made good use of it so far, but it's unclear whether it'll be enough.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2018, 07:18:00 AM »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2018, 08:22:46 AM »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5
Logged
cvparty
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2018, 10:27:16 AM »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5
go awf
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,237
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2018, 06:57:08 PM »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5

Interesting. I trust your statistics, but frankly it's felt like just about every poll results as head cruise up buy one to four points for a month or two now. Your statistics don't lie, but somehow it just doesn't feel like O'Rourke is gaining. Know what I mean?
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2018, 07:55:24 PM »

All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX

Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.

Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5

Interesting. I trust your statistics, but frankly it's felt like just about every poll results as head cruise up buy one to four points for a month or two now. Your statistics don't lie, but somehow it just doesn't feel like O'Rourke is gaining. Know what I mean?

Agreed, although I do think there has been some sort of trend towards Beto. Just not sure how much:



As you can see, we aren't exactly SUPER flush with polls, and the one repeat poll we've had from QP actually shows an increase on Cruz's margin (Cruz+3 in April to Cruz+6 in July). We need more data Sad

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I hope they bomb Texas with polls in October so we can see whether or not Beto gets a surge during the final stretch as people make up their minds. That would, to me, indicate a potential win.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,660
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2018, 06:29:01 PM »

Maybe the only hope now for Beto is a scandal against Cruz, or Cruz screws up in the debates (but he's a good debater, so I dunno).

A Ted Cruz scandal is probably the only likely way Beto can jump further at this point.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 14 queries.