NV-SEN Suffolk: Rosen +1

[Xing]

Suffolk had Senator-elect Heck up by 3 in Nevada in September 2016, and he certainly didn't "improve with time", lol. Heller might not lose by double digits, but it's amazing how people forget every time how polls regularly underestimate Democrats in Nevada. If Heller somehow wins re-election in Nevada, it's because some enormous scandal about Rosen breaks in October, or because Democrats are having a terrible night and losing 5-6 Senate seats while only making minimal gains in the House. There is no universe in which Democrats win the House while Heller wins re-election. If you don't believe me, well, neither did most posters in 2016 when I suggested that there was absolutely no way that Clinton would win without Nevada, and that Democrats wouldn't take the Senate without it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It has been obvious for quite some time that this one is going Dem, and it remains obvious.

[IceSpear]

Suffolk had Senator-elect Heck up by 3 in Nevada in September 2016, and he certainly didn't "improve with time", lol. Heller might not lose by double digits, but it's amazing how people forget every time how polls regularly underestimate Democrats in Nevada. If Heller somehow wins re-election in Nevada, it's because some enormous scandal about Rosen breaks in October, or because Democrats are having a terrible night and losing 5-6 Senate seats while only making minimal gains in the House. There is no universe in which Democrats win the House while Heller wins re-election. If you don't believe me, well, neither did most posters in 2016 when I suggested that there was absolutely no way that Clinton would win without Nevada, and that Democrats wouldn't take the Senate without it.

This.

Actually, I'd go even further. If Heller somehow wins re-election without a massive scandal hitting Rosen, Republicans gaining a filibuster proof majority in the Senate is definitely in the realm of possibility.

[IceSpear]

A couple Obama rallies here would be great.

Obama shouldn't waste his time with likely D races. After all, Rosen is already ahead in the polling average despite this:

When Sisolak and Rosen win by more than expected, will Atlas finally accept that Nevada at least leans Democratic, and isn't the most likely state to flip to Trump in 2020?

... Nah, they'll say it's a Toss-Up again as soon as a poll has a Democrat only leading Trump by 3 there in 2020. Anyway, terrible poll for Laxalt.

They'll never learn, but here's an easy bookmarkable post we can go back to for future reference.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To play Devil's advocate just a bit, it's worth noting that the extent of polls' underestimation of Democrats in NV has diminished over time. It used to be 6-8 points during the Glory Days of Obama's first term, but now it seems to have shrunk to just 2 or 3. It's conceivable that it might be even lower this year, or even converge around the right result. Not saying that will happen, but it's possible.

[Virginiá]

Damn IceSpear. I mean, I knew Nevada was tricky and tends to underestimate Democrats, but putting all together in a single post really drives that home. I didn't know it was that consistent of an issue.

Thanksss

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Rosen is a mediocre candidate who will probably win because she is running in a blue state in a blue year.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen is a mediocre candidate who will probably win because she is running in a blue state in a blue year.

She's a progressive, more so than Sinema, who said she won't vote for Schumer as Leader

[MycroftCZ]

Every poll seems like a bad result for Rosen, only being up for 1 in a blue-ish state in a value year... but, Nevada polling always seems to exaggerate R's.

[IceSpear]

Every poll seems like a bad result for Rosen, only being up for 1 in a blue-ish state in a value year... but, Nevada polling always seems to exaggerate R's.

No, being at 40% of the vote is bad for incumbent Senator, not for Rosen.

[MT Treasurer]

Could Jacky Rosen even have beaten Tarkanian? Easily one of the most overrated candidates this election cycle.

[IceSpear]

Could Jacky Rosen even have beaten Tarkanian? Easily one of the most overrated candidates this election cycle.

No, she would've lost to him, just like she did in 2016 in a Trump district.